Today’s free horse racing tips: The Betting Spy’s top picks for Saturday’s racing at Cheltenham and Lingfield
CHELTENHAM looks set to go ahead and, from the pictures seen so far, there would be no more apt winner than BIG RIVER in the 1.50.
Lucinda Russell’s nine-year-old relishes the mud and has a terrific record fresh. He stayed on strongly when fourth behind Beware The Bear at the Festival, shaping as if he would enjoy this longer trip.
He then ran well enough when fifth in the Scottish National where the better ground was no good to him. He will not have that worry now! He runs off 1lb lower than when fourth of 24 in March and this race is clearly not as strong.
Topweight Ramses de Teillee is another mudlover who won well on his return over hurdles. But he is on a stiff mark and has a lot of weight to lug round.
West Approach is well handicapped but his will to win seems to have gone West. Bigger dangers are Pop Rockstar, who looked good at Carlisle and is progressive although the stable form is a worry, and Achille, who improved throughout last season.
However Achille gets on in-form Venetia Williams can be among the winners with EMINENT POET in the 3.00.
He is only 5lb higher than when bolting up on his seasonal reappearance last year – in a similar event on heavy ground at Sandown.
He has also won on heavy at Haydock and Lingfield so conditions cannot be too testing for him. Tobefair is as tough as old boots but had a hard race over course and distance three weeks ago and is 5lb higher.
Vieux Lion Rouge won well last time over fences but when he last raced over the smaller obstacles David Cameron (remember him?) was Prime Minister!
The Butcher Said and Smackwater Jack are promising types who may find this too much of a test at this stage but Eva’s Oskar is not out of it, despite being 2lb ‘wrong’ at the weights.
Betting Spy's top tips for Saturday
With so much rain around all-weather Flat racing has never been more needed in its’ 30-year history and fortunately Lingfield host a terrific meeting with around £150,000 of prizemoney on offer.
ALRAJAA can take the near £12,000 first prize in the 1.00pm. He is chasing a four-timer and stormed home at Kempton on his last run in a strong race confined to three-year-olds, where the two who followed him home are also still progressing.
He is 7lb higher now but this all-aged event is packed with exposed types, some of whom have definitely seen better days.
Goring has a great record at the track but is high enough in the weights and returning from a break. Alemaratalyoum is a real mud-lover who might struggle on this surface.
Three Saints Bay and Ptarmigan Ridge are not badly treated if taking to the surface whilst a market move for ex-Italian Wait Forever, making his British debut, could be interesting.
The solid option for the forecast is probably Star Of Southwold but he might be chasing a real Star home, Alrajaa!
I spy an eyecatcher...
At Kempton on Monday little was expected of SAMMY BILL when he made his chasing debut in a decent 2m4f novice handicap as he drifted from 8s out to 12-1.
But the market got it wrong – spectacularly so – as the six-year-old relished his new task, jumping superbly, to win easily by 11 lengths.
The handicapper will hit him hard but his opening mark of 110 means he will still have plenty of options after being re-assessed. Further success seems assured.
Exeter hosted an imformative card on Wednesday where Esprit Du Large, highlighted here after his promising reappearance at Carlisle, was the star turn when winning a competitive beginners’ chase cosily.
Another to note is ECLAIR SURF who made all to land the 2m5f novice hurdle in fine style. Bought for 140,000gns after winning an Irish point in March, the Emma Lavelle-trained five-year-old looks as though he might just be worth it.
Frankie Dettori has his first ride since copping a ban in the Melbourne Cup on SCENTASIA in the Listed Gillies Fillies Stakes (2.10), a race saved from last week’s abandoned Doncaster November Handicap fixture.
The Italian has possibly sniffed out a winner too as the filly showed improved form last time when winning a similar event here over a mile in terrific style.
She is bred to stay this far and had excuses when well beaten over the trip at Newmarket previously. The winner that day, Eva Maria, faces a stiff task at these weights but is progressing well.
She is certainly not out of this although her latest win was on soft and she may find this too much of a speed test. Magic Lily would be the one to beat on her close third to Laurens in the Fillies Mile on her second start.
But that was over two years ago and she failed to justify favouritism on her return in a weaker race in France. Her draw in box 14 is no help either.
Aidan O’Brien adds intrigue with his two runners, Quote and Simply Beautiful. Both have solid form for the level but both have poor win records and, as daughters of Galileo, may find this too sharp.
Expect a Master class in all-weather sprinting in the Golden Rose Stakes (3.15). GIFTED MASTER, who won this in 2017 and was a close fifth 12 months ago, is in great form after a terrific effort last time when trying to defy a mark of 105 in a 7f handicap here.
He only lost out to War Glory but had Above The Rest, who is 3lb worse off today, back in third. Corinthia Knight has a fine track record but was behind Gifted Master 12 months ago and, like Royal Birth, may be better at the minimum trip.
Soldier’s Minute will find this tougher than the Kempton handicap he won last time while StakeAcclaim‘s best turf form is in the mud so he may not enjoy conditions.
One who will is Show Stealer. She is a hold-up horse who will need luck from the inside rail but has an each-way squeak if she gets it.