Trump’s killing of Iran general is biggest security event since 9/11 – and Britain will be on edge for revenge attacks

THE assassination of top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in a US drone strike is the most significant global security event since 9/11 – and will spark further terror atrocities.

Britain, as an American ally, will be watching the events with real concern. Iran, and its proxy forces, may strike out wildly in the coming weeks and months as they enact the ‘severe revenge’ they have promised following their intelligence chief’s killing.

Yet it was Iran that committed the first act of war, by attacking the US embassy in Iraq. Under international law, a country’s embassy is part of its sovereign territory, so this breached a clear red line.

Now, vengeful Tehran could seek to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit point for the world’s oil, or attack Saudi Arabia, with whom US President Donald Trump has maintained a good relationship.

Here, Iran will sense weakness – the Saudis know they are unlikely to win a direct conflict with Tehran.

Either action, if sustained, would have a significant effect on the global economy, dramatically shifting the oil price.

The blood-soaked real criminal

For the UK, the initial Iraqi condemnation of Soleimani’s killing, which has been robust, will also be of concern, as it raises questions about the safety and security of British interests in the country.

In the short term, the incident may draw Iran and Iraq even closer together.

All of this Trump will have been undoubtedly aware of before he approved the airstrike at Baghdad Airport this morning – branded “an act of international terrorism” by Iran’s foreign minister.

Yet Soleimani is the real criminal in this conflict.

The general, who had the blood of thousands on his hands, masterminded the killings of hundreds of US troops and was in Baghdad to co-ordinate future attacks on US interests.

He was removed from the battlefield today in a dramatic example of a decapitation strike, where a terrorist threat is addressed by the removal of its leader.

General’s role in world’s biggest humanitarian disaster

Critics of America will accuse Trump of provoking a regional war in the Middle East. Yet the reality is that war is already being fought, and has been ongoing for years.

Shia Iran has been fighting its Sunni enemies, led by Saudi Arabia, in a series of Middle Eastern countries, as it tries to establish a ‘Shia crescent’ of like-minded regimes under its own control.

Syria’s civil war, now nearly a decade old, would never have lasted so long without the fighters Iran has deployed in support of President Assad. Soleimani’s role in the greatest humanitarian disaster of this century, was pivotal.

During his Presidency, Trump has acted to rein in Iran’s co-ordination of terrorist organisations across the Middle East, and specifically Iranian sponsorship of attacks upon its embassy in Baghdad.

Despite what international law dictates, after a wave of anti-Iranian protests in Iraq, the Iranian regime responded by encouraging its assets in the Iraqi capital to attack the embassy.

There has also been deadly violence – just last week, an American contractor working on an Iraqi military base in Kirkuk, was killed in a rocket attack.

And on New Year’s Day, Iran’s spiritual leader taunted Trump on Twitter that “you can’t do anything”.

Few Brit soldiers will mourn death

In giving the green light for the drone strike on Soleimani, the US President acted decisively against the leadership of Iran’s state terrorist infrastructure and showed Tehran that it has made a catastrophic mis-reading of America’s intentions.

Soleimani paid for that mistake with his life. Given past Iranian arming of the Taliban in Afghanistan, few in the British military will mourn Soleimani, or his associates.

For many Americans, the attack on the US embassy in Baghdad brought back grim memories. In 2012 the US lost its ambassador and three officials in an attack on its consulate in Benghazi, Libya.

After the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran, dozens of American officials were held hostage by supporters of Ayatollah Khomeini for 15 months.

Under Trump, the US has looked to push back against Iranian support for terrorist groups, and has ripped up the controversial nuclear deal Obama struck with the Mullahs.

Iran’s fatal mistake

Iran, though, appears to have noticed Trump’s reluctance to respond militarily to either the downing of a US drone last June or the attacks on international shipping off the Iranian coast.

In June, Trump reportedly changed his mind about an attack on Iran, worried about civilian casualties.

The departure of the hawkish John Bolton from Trump’s team of advisors, America’s abrupt withdrawal from Syria and a pending Presidential election, may all have been taken as a sign that Trump wished to avoid conflict with Iran at all costs.

But this was not the case. For Soleimani, putting himself on the ground to meet his forces in Iraq, proved to be a fatal mistake.

Revenge attack fears

Now, Iran’s clients – most notably the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and to an extent the Houthis in Yemen, who have been trained, bankrolled and directed by Tehran – will be expected to act against the US, and its regional ally, Israel.

Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, personally cultivated strong relationships with the jihadi leaders of the terrorist groups that Iran sponsors.

Those leaders are now in the awkward position of being required to act out of duty to Iran, but knowing they possess no immunity from American retaliation, should it come.

Revenge, however, is unlikely to come from the main Sunni jihadist groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda. On the opposite side of Islam’s sectarian divide, and having sometimes fought Soleimani’s men in Syria, they are unlikely to mourn his passing.

Some fear an all-out war, yet I believe this is unlikely.

The first priority of the Iranian regime will be survival. It knows it could not survive an all-out war with the US – yet this doesn’t mean there’s no reason for concern.

Terror atrocities via proxies could kill thousands. The US has already witnessed Iranian-backed militia attacks at its embassy, and has urged American citizens in Iraq to leave “immediately”.

But Trump has proven a vital point and addressed a very real terrorist threat.

In directing attacks upon the US embassy in Iraq, the Iranian regime crossed a red line. And Soleimani has now learned that, under Trump, red lines really are red lines.

• Dr Stott is a Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. He specialises in terrorism, security and diplomacy