Earth population to ‘peak’ in 2080s as scientists share exact human count we’ll hit before ‘lower fertility’ sparks fall
EARTH’S population will peak in the mid-2080s before dropping to a level significantly lower than anticipated a decade ago.
The current population of 8.2 billion people will swell to 10.3 billion over the next 60 years before dropping to 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
The global population in 2100 is now expected to be 700 million fewer than anticipated a decade ago – a 6% drop.
These findings were included in World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results, a United Nations report released to coincide with World Population Day.
Experts say the earlier peak is caused by factors including lower levels of fertility in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China.
Across the globe, women are having an average of one child fewer than they did around 1990.
The report notes that the average number of live births per woman is under 2.1 in more than half of all countries and areas surveyed.
This is below “the level required for a population to maintain a constant size over the long term without migration,” according to a press release.
Nearly a fifth of all countries and areas have “ultra-low” fertility, meaning fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.
As of the time of the report, population size had peaked in 63 countries and areas including China, Germany, and Japan – a country famous for its low birth rate.
Nevertheless, “the total population of this group is projected to decline by 14% over the next thirty years,” the UN reported.
For another 48 countries and areas including Brazil and Vietnam, the population is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054.
In the remaining 126 countries, including India and the United States, the population is expected to increase through 2054 and see a possible peak in the second half of the century or later.
The United Kingdom is among the countries expected to grow through the second half of the century, “albeit at a relatively slow pace,” and stabilize around the size of their peak.
“Very rapid growth” is projected in nine countries including at least five in Africa, with the total population doubling between 2024 and 2054.
The report noted that low-income countries, in particular, grapple with complications associated with early pregnancies.
In 2024, 4.7 million babies – roughly 3.5% of the total worldwide – were born to mothers under 18.
Of these, around 340,000 were born to young girls under age 15, with “serious consequences” for the health of the young mothers and their children.
The report notes that investing in girls’ education and raising the age of marriage will have “positive outcomes for women’s health, educational attainment, and labor force participation.”
“These efforts will also contribute to slowing population growth and reducing the scale of the investments required to achieve sustainable development while ensuring that no one is left behind,” the press release read.
Dr. Navid Hanif of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs touched on the implications of population growth and decline at a July 11 press briefing.
The lower global population estimate “represents a major shift compared to a decade ago with important policy implications for the sustainability of our planet,” Hanif said.
Rapid growth, for starters, “is likely to magnify the scale of investments and efforts required to eradicate poverty, hunger, and malnutrition and ensure universal access to healthcare, education, and other essential services in countries that are already facing severe economic, social, and environmental impediments.”
Conversely, Hanif continued, “rapid population decline” in other countries may lead to labor shortages and impact federal programs like Social Security.
Mortality rates have dropped and life expectancy has skyrocketed over the past 30 years, largely due to advances in medicine.
Following a decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy at birth has risen from 70.9 years to 73.3 years in 2024.
By the late 2050s, more than half of all global deaths will occur at age 80 or higher, a substantial increase from 17% in 1995.
The number of people aged 65 or older is projected to surpass the number of children by the 2070s.
Meanwhile, the number of people aged 80 and older is projected to exceed the number of infants by the mid-2030s.
What is carrying capacity?
The term denotes a popular concept in ecology - here's what it means for Earth's population.
In 1798, economist Thomas Malthus predicted the Earth could not support an indefinitely growing human population.
Malthus believed limits were imposed by the availability of resources. If humans didn’t curb population growth themselves, starvation would do it for them, he figured.
The theory helped popularize the concept of carrying capacity, which states that there is a certain population size above which a species starts to damage its habitat.
After passing that tipping point, life becomes unsustainable.
It is unclear when we will hit carrying capacity on Earth. Scientists have disagreed on the exact estimate for decades, hypothesizing numbers between 2 billion and 40 billion people.
So how can we walk the global population back from the edge?
Proposals include shifting to sustainable forms of energy like solar and wind power, as running out of coil could spell doom for the planet.
Experts also recommend finding ways to curb air and water pollution, which harms the resources essential for our survival.