Wages growth slows and jobs market cools – what it means for your money
WAGE growth has fallen back amid increasing signs of a cooling jobs market, according to official figures.
Growth in regular pay, excluding bonuses, was 5.7% in the three months to May this year.
This is down from 6% in the previous three months to April this year.
That’s according to official figures released today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Wage growth is at its lowest since the three months to August 2022 when it stood at 5.4%.
Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said: “Earnings growth in cash terms, while remaining relatively strong, is showing signs of slowing again.
“However, with inflation falling, in real terms it is at its highest rate in over two and a half years.”
If an amount of money is described in “real terms”, that means it takes inflation into account.
Meanwhile, the rate of UK unemployment remained unchanged at 4.4% for the same period.
It means unemployment is still at its highest levels in almost a year.
The latest figures from the ONS also reveal there were 889,000 job vacancies in April to June this year.
This is a decrease of 30,000 from the previous three months, with the number of vacancies falling continuously for two years.
Liz added: “We continue to see overall some signs of a cooling in the labour market, with the growth in the number of employees on the payroll weakening over the medium term and unemployment gradually increasing.”
GROWING WAGES
At first glance, slowing income is not great news for our pockets.
But it does raise hops that an interest rate cut could on August 1, when the Bank of Englang meets to make its next rates decision.
The Bank of England has been nervous that endless wage rises will make it harder to tame inflation.
Decision-makers on the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have left the base rate at a 16-year high of 5.25% for almost a year.
However, experts are warning that the Bank of England’s decision still hangs in the balance.
Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at abrdn, said: “There were no nasty surprises for the Bank of England in today’s labour market report, with wage growth continuing to slow in line with expectations.
“But the double edge to this sword is that wage growth is still well above a level that the Bank would consider consistent with its 2% inflation target.
“So policymakers need confidence that wage growth will slow further before embarking on rate cuts.”
With Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation taken into account, regular earnings rose by 3.2%, which is the highest since the three months to August 2021.
The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation remained unchanged at 2% in June, ONS figures revealed yesterday.
Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club added: “Wage growth may be starting to slow in the UK, although all sectors still reported above inflation pay rises – from a low of 3.0% in construction to 6.7% in finance and business services.
“That’s great news for workers, but less good for the Bank of England since it underpins stubbornly high inflation rates in the service sector.”
Why does inflation matter?
INFLATION is a measure of the cost of living. It looks at how much the price of goods, such as food or televisions, and services, such as haircuts or train tickets, has changed over time.
Usually people measure inflation by comparing the cost of things today with how much they cost a year ago. The average increase in prices is known as the inflation rate.
The government sets an inflation target of 2%.
If inflation is too high or it moves around a lot, the Bank of England says it is hard for businesses to set the right prices and for people to plan their spending.
High inflation rates also means people are having to spend more, while savings are likely to be eroded as the cost of goods is more than the interest we’re earning.
Low inflation, on the other hand, means lower prices and a greater likelihood of interest rates on savings beating the inflation rate.
But if inflation is too low some people may put off spending because they expect prices to fall. And if everybody reduced their spending then companies could fail and people might lose their jobs.
See our UK inflation guide and our Is low inflation good? guide for more information.
HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
Higher unemployment rates are obviously bad, as it means more people are out of work and not earning money.
It also means less money is being pumped into the economy, which can see GDP slow.
When GDP falls, it means the economy is shrinking, and governments have less of the public’s money to spend on public services.
It can also mean taxes rise which means less money in your pocket.
Jake Finney, economist at PwC, said: “The latest labour market data continues to be more awkward for the Bank of England than the inflation data.
“The labour market is clearly cooling … but pay growth still remains elevated at 5.7%, way in excess of the circa 3% level that is considered to be consistent with the 2% inflation target.
“This still remains one of the largest potential barriers to an August rate cut.”
TACKLING INACTIVITY
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall branded today’s statistics “truly dire’ committed to “getting Britain working again”.
It follows a manifesto promise to get more people into work and support people to fund better paid jobs.
Ms Kendall said: “It’s time for change – in every corner of the country.
“That is why we are taking immediate actions to deliver on our growth mission, and spread jobs, prosperity, and opportunity to everyone, wherever they live.
“Our Plan to Get Britain Working again will overhaul jobcentres, deliver a youth guarantee, and give local areas the power they need to tackle economic inactivity and breakdown barriers to a brighter future.”
Meanwhile, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves MP, added: “Economic growth is our national mission and getting people back into work is central to that.
“It is the best way to improve living standards for everyone which is why I have already taken action to fix the foundations of our economy so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of our country better off.”
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