Chilling graphic shows ‘Christmas asteroid’ the size of a football pitch on trajectory to hit Earth in seven years
A CHILLING graphic shows how an asteroid the size of a football pitch is on course to smash into Earth at Christmas time in seven years.
Scientists say the enormous space rock is between 40 and 100 metres wide and would wipe out humanity if it hits.
The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, has been rated as the highest risk ever recorded by the European Space Agency (ESA).
If it smashed into Earth, it would leave a crater the size of Manchester and wreak mass death and global destruction.
An impact this size could even cause the collapse of human society, according to experts.
Astronomers have calculated there is a 1 in 83 chance of the space rock smashing into Earth – or 1.2 per cent.
It is currently speeding away from our planet at 38,000mph, but will circle back around the sun when its path could intersect Earth’s.
The asteroid was spotted by a special monitoring telescope in Chile, South America, on Christmas Day.
Projections show its path could cross over with earth’s orbit around Christmas time in 2032 – specifically 5:25am on Wednesday, December 22.
The collision has been rated level three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale – the highest for any rock currently being monitored.
The second-most risky asteroid has just a 0.68 chance per cent of hitting earth – about half of YR4.
Level three on the Torino scale is described by Nasa as: “Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction.
“Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
“Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.”
David Rankin, an engineer at the Catalina Sky Survey, wrote on BlueSky: “This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever, making it a Torino scale 3.
“Most likely outcome is still a near miss. We continue to track it!”
The ESA said it is not currently possible to predict whether the asteroid will strike the Earth, but that more observations would give us a better idea of the trajectory.
A rock of this size hits the our planet just once every 700,000 years.
The International Asteroid Warning Network said it was already planning for what action might be needed as the asteroid nears.
This could involve creating a model to project the level of devastation an impact would cause, and figuring out a way to knock it off course.
The options for diverting an asteroid include firing a nuclear bomb or driving a rocket into it.
Mathematicians have calculated that crashing a “sacrificial” spacecraft into the side of a speeding asteroid less than one kilometre across would be powerful enough to push it away.
Ian Carnelli, a planet defence expert at the ESA, told The Telegraph: “It is a lot more complex with a nuclear device, and that is before you get into the political discussion because nuclear explosions in space are banned by UN treaties.
“A kinetic impactor, a spacecraft, will be a lot more precise [than a nuclear bomb] because you can select the mass, the velocity and the direction of the impact; you can really control the deflection.
“But even so, the nuclear device is not like you see in Armageddon where you send drillers to put the bomb in the core of the asteroid and destroy it – the idea is to detonate it at a certain distance from the asteroid.
“Triggering an explosion a certain distance away from an asteroid is extremely complex and nobody would agree to test it before a real threat is identified so you really would have a total lack of knowledge of how to do it.”
Past Earth-threatening asteroids
MANY asteroids spotted in the past have been deemed a risk to Earth.
But only one has ever been diverted by human intervention.
In 2022, Nasa’s DART spacecraft was deliberately driven into the side of Dimorphos – a small asteroid “moonlet”.
The mission was mainly to test Nasa’s planet defence systems, and was deemed a big success.
There have been a number of other asteroids that have threatened the Earth, including:
- Chicxulub Impactor: This asteroid smashed into the Earth around 66 million years ago and is believed to have wiped out the dinosaurs
- 2004 FU162: In March 2004, this 33ft-wide meteoroid passed 6,500 km above Earth
- 1996 JA1: In May 1996, this space rock passed Earth at a distance of 450,000 km
- 99942 Apophis: This 1,100ft-wide asteroid was considered one of the most dangerous asteroids that could impact Earth. However, a radar observation campaign in 2021 concluded that it poses no risk to Earth for at least 100 years
- 1979 XB: This 2,165ft-wide asteroid had an estimated 1 in 1.8 million chance of impact
- 2007 FT3: This 0.6-mile-wide asteroid had an estimated 1 in 10 million chance of impact on March 3, 2030
- 7482 (1994 PC1): This 3,609ft-wide asteroid had its closest approach on January 18, 2022