Iran: Is regime change possible?

Will the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran "strengthen Tehran's authoritarians or hasten their demise?" asked Karim Sadjadpour in The New York Times. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump have both raised the prospect of "regime change" in Tehran, and the crushing military defeat the two countries inflicted on Iran exposed "deep vulnerabilities" in the Islamic Republic, which is headed by 86-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei. But the regime does not seem "at risk of imminent collapse." The ruling elites haven't splintered into competing factions and still have a monopoly on violent repression. No charismatic opposition leader or organization has harnessed Iranians' "mass discontent" to craft a unifying anti-government message. The regime appears "brittle," but the struggle of younger, secular Iranians for a less oppressive government "is only beginning."

The Israeli airstrikes have actually generated a lot of "mixed feelings" among Iranians, said Joshua Keating in Vox. On one hand, about 80% of the population of 90 million has no love for their fanatically religious ruling elite. Very few will mourn Israel's targeted killings of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders responsible for violent crackdowns on peaceful demonstrators over the years. But Iranian opposition members loudly rejected Netanyahu's call for them to rise up to topple their rulers, saying "the bombing doesn't help their movement." Iranians are also understandably "leery" of what a new regime would look like, said Jonah Shepp in New York magazine. If the Islamic Republic collapses, the power vacuum would likely be filled by the Revolutionary Guards, "the locus of the regime's hard power." An IRGC government would operate either as a typical military dictatorship or as a theocracy similar to the current one. Any effort by younger Iranians to create a democracy would "face tremendous odds."

The early signs are not encouraging, said The Economist in an editorial. When the war broke out, Khamenei sought safety in a bunker and delegated his governing duties to a new council dominated by Revolutionary Guard members. One observer says the country is now effectively "under martial law." After the Israeli assassinations of veteran IRGC commanders, their replacements are itching for vengeance, hell-bent on redeeming national pride. Israel and the U.S. may have won this military campaign, but the attack may not "break the cycle of paranoia and insecurity that has left Iran and its people in a ruinous state."