What has the Dalai Lama achieved?

On Sunday, Tenzin Gyatso, the Dalai Lama, celebrated his 90th birthday. He has long said that at this point, he would make a decision about his succession plans: according to Tibetan Buddhist belief, the Dalai Lama can choose how to be reincarnated. In the past, he has made a range of suggestions: that he might "emanate" to another person while still alive; or even that the role might die with him.

But last week, he declared from his base in Dharamshala, in northern India, that he expects to reincarnate into a new body after his death. His trust, the Gaden Phodrang Foundation, will designate his successor, he said in a video message, and he stressed that "no one else has any such authority to interfere". This was a clear reference to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which, though ideologically committed to atheism, claims the right to select the Dalai Lama's next reincarnation.

What exactly is the Dalai Lama's role?

He is believed to be the reincarnation of Avalokiteshvara, the bodhisattva of compassion – a person who is able to reach nirvana, the end of the cycle of death and rebirth, but delays doing so through compassion for other suffering beings. The current Dalai Lama is the 14th reincarnation in a line founded in the 15th century by Gedun Drupa, an abbot in southern Tibet. The Dalai Lamas – the title means the "ocean teacher" – were not just the leaders of the leading Gelugpa sect of Tibetan Buddhism, but also, from the fifth Dalai Lama on, the feudal rulers of Tibet.

The current Dalai Lama, who was born in 1935, assumed full political power in 1950. The same year, Mao Zedong's People's Liberation Army invaded Tibet (which had been a Chinese protectorate until 1912, when it gained independence with the collapse of the Qing dynasty). After years of negotiation with the Chinese authorities – he travelled to Beijing in 1954, where Mao told him that "religion is poison" – the Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959, while an uprising was being brutally put down by the Chinese.

What has he achieved as a political leader?

He established a government-in-exile in Dharamshala, leading a diaspora, estimated in 2009 at 150,000, mostly in India, Nepal and Bhutan, where it has built schools, monasteries and cultural centres, preserving Tibetan language, religion and heritage.

Initially, the Dalai Lama pushed for Tibet's full independence, but since the 1970s he has adopted the "Middle‑Way Approach": accepting Chinese sovereignty but seeking autonomy for Tibet within China. The Chinese authorities have conceded very little.

However, the Dalai Lama established himself as a global advocate for his cause, and a beacon of moral leadership and non-violent activism. In 1989, months after the Tiananmen Square massacre, he won the Nobel Peace Prize – to China's fury. In 2011, he ceded political authority of Tibet's government-in-exile to democratically elected leaders, but he continues to lead spiritually.

How is the process conducted?

The search for a Dalai Lama's reincarnation begins only upon the incumbent's death, and it can take several years. After the 13th Dalai Lama died in 1933, senior lamas observed mystical indicators – the head of the embalmed Dalai Lama turned to point northeast, and one monk had visions at the sacred Lhamo La-tso Lake of a house in a particular village.

Following these clues, disguised lamas travelled towards Amdo in northeastern Tibet (now Qinghai) and found the young Tenzin Gyatso, son of a poor but devout farmer. They presented him with personal items belonging to the 13th Dalai Lama, such as rosary beads and prayer drums. He correctly identified them, saying, "It's mine, it's mine." He was enthroned in Lhasa in 1940.

How will it be different this time?

In his writings, the Dalai Lama had suggested that his successor would be born in the "free world" – i.e. outside Chinese territory. If it does take place outside Tibet, the reincarnation process will have to be conducted without many of the traditional rituals.

And there will almost certainly be two rival candidates. The Chinese regard the Dalai Lama as a major impediment in their efforts to impose full control over Tibet, and Chinese religious-affairs regulations now require government approval for any high lama's reincarnation; they must be born in Chinese territory, and selected using the Golden Urn lottery, a system imposed by the Qing dynasty to impose imperial oversight over the process, which involves withdrawing names from an urn in the Jokhang Temple in Lhasa. All of this happened in the case of the Panchen Lama, a position of spiritual authority second only to the Dalai Lama.

What happened to the Panchen Lama?

The 10th Panchen Lama died in 1989, shortly after criticising Chinese rule. In 1995, the Dalai Lama recognized Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, a six-year-old boy from Lhari in eastern Tibet, as the 11th Panchen Lama. Three days later, the boy and his family were taken into custody by Chinese authorities. He has not been seen publicly since – and has been dubbed the "world's youngest political prisoner". Beijing then installed its own candidate, Gyaincain Norbu, the son of Party members, using the Golden Urn ritual. He is not, though, recognised by most Tibetans.

How will the issue be resolved?

There is likely to be a global divide. China will push its line hard: no British PM has even met the Dalai Lama since David Cameron did so in 2012, causing a diplomatic rift. But the US may push back. In 2020, the US Congress passed a law stating that only Tibetans have the right to choose the Dalai Lama, and threatening sanctions on Chinese officials who interfere in the process. In 2023, the Dalai Lama recognised a boy as a reincarnation of the Bogd, the third-most senior Tibetan lama: he was a Mongolian, who conveniently also had a US passport.