Selection of new Hamas leader further dampens expectations of Gaza cease-fire

Amman, Jordan — Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, believed to be the architect of the October 7 attacks on Israel, is now the Palestinian terror group’s new political chief as well as its military leader based in Gaza. Analysts say Sinwar is unlikely to conclude a cease-fire deal with Israel to end fighting in Gaza and return hostages, but a Hamas spokesman says Sinwar will continue negotiations.

Nicholas Heras of Washington’s New Lines Institute told VOA Yahya Sinwar’s unanimous appointment as Hamas’ new political chief shows that Gaza is now center stage, and not Qatar, where the political leadership has been based.

“Now, Hamas is making a very clear statement to the world, not just to Israel, the United States, Qatar and Egypt that the path for Hamas runs through Gaza and fundamentally Hamas is willing to fight until the very bitter end, not only for its own survival as an organization, but from its point of view for the future of the Palestinian people. Hamas is signaling to the Israelis and whoever works with them that there is no way to separate Gaza and the future of Gaza from Hamas,” said Heras.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it’s now up to Yahya Sinwar to clinch a ceasefire deal in the 10-month Gaza conflict because he “has been and remains the primary decider.” This indicates that was the case even when top Hamas negotiator Ismail Haniyeh, considered relatively more moderate, was still alive.

Khaled Hroub, a Hamas specialist at Northwestern University in Qatar, told France’s Le Monde newspaper that “if Israel, the United States and their allies in the region and beyond were hoping to subdue Hamas by force, the response will be a more radical Hamas."

He said he does not see a softening of the group’s position as Washington and Qatar try to reach a deal in hopes of reducing the current escalation between Israel and Iran.

Cinzia Bianco, a Gulf specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations told VOA that Qatar has tried for eight months to see a deal happen, but Hamas really takes its cues from Iran.

“They only respond to Iran and perhaps to other external backers to some extent, Russia and China as well. The political cause and the military cause are now one. That means that Qatar’s leverage is now less,” said Bianco.

Israeli and U.S. intelligence officers told The New York Times that Sinwar’s strategy is “to keep the war in Gaza going for as long as it takes to shred Israel’s international reputation and to damage its relationship with its primary ally, the United States.”

Nicholas Heras said he sees Sinwar both influenced by slain Iranian Republican Guard Corps General Qassem Soleimani and using his Israel playbook. Heras said “Soleimani developed an entire strategy to create a network of proxies and partners that surround Israel,” including Hamas, to seek its destruction.

“Over time a series of attritional conflicts with Israel will undermine the foundation of Israel economically, socially, politically and then geopolitically. All those elements have been present in this current conflict that Hamas initiated on October 7, 2023. And we see this Soleimani playbook continue to be enacted,” he said.

Observers say they see both Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as unwilling to reach a cease-fire agreement for their own political reasons.