Analysts say Vietnam official's US trip could set path to C-130 deal
A U.S.-based analyst told VOA on September 12 that Giang’s trip set the groundwork for Hanoi to potentially purchase military cargo planes from the United States this year.
Giang met with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon on Monday. [September 9] Both leaders "reaffirmed the importance of the U.S.-Vietnam partnership," the Defense Department said in a statement, and noted the one-year anniversary of the elevation of the countries’ ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, the highest tier in Hanoi's diplomatic hierarchy.
The leaders also underscored the importance of working together to address the lasting impacts of the U.S.-Vietnam War. Austin announced that the U.S. would budget $65 million over the next five years to complete the decontamination of Bien Hoa airbase of dioxin, bringing the total from department to $215 million. The airbase was the primary storage site for the toxic chemical Agent Orange during the U.S.-Vietnam War and remains an environmental and public health hazard for those nearby.
Andrew Wells-Dang, who leads the Vietnam War Legacies and Reconciliation Initiative at the United States Institute of Peace, told VOA by phone on September 5 that diplomatic visits are key to advancing war-remediation efforts, including finding and identifying the remains of missing soldiers. He said that along with the U.S. visit of Deputy Defense Minister Vo Minh Luong in July, visits from authorities provide "opportunity for them to have high level support."
Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington and an expert on Southeast Asia, said joint war-reconciliation efforts also set the groundwork for defense cooperation more broadly.
"The United States is very pleased with the growth in bilateral defense relations, and it started from very low levels and was built on humanitarian missions," Abuza said during the August 29 call.
"We've just continued to build on that," he added.
Cargo planes
Reuters reported in July that Hanoi was considering purchasing Lockheed Martin C-130 cargo planes from the U.S., according to unnamed sources.
The U.S.-based analyst, who asked that his name to be withheld because he has not been cleared to discuss the topic, said the C-130 deal was discussed but not finalized during Giang's visit. The analyst said the deal was held back by the "massive [U.S.] bureaucracy" and because solidifying the purchase during the Washington visit would be "too inflammatory for the Chinese."
Ian Storey, senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, noted Vietnam's delicate diplomatic balancing act, illustrated by Giang's travel itinerary before the Washington trip.
"Vietnam aims to keep its relations with the major powers in balance," he wrote in an email on August 30. "As such, Vietnamese Defense Minister Phan Van Giang visited Russia and China in August."
Storey added that the purchase of C-130 planes would not pose a threat to China in its maritime territorial disputes with Vietnam.
"C-130 aircraft would enable the Vietnamese to transport troops and supplies to its occupied atolls in the South China Sea, but these assets are non-strategic and won't shift the dynamics in the South China Sea," he wrote.
Nguyen The Phuong, a maritime security expert at the University of New South Wales Canberra, said the C-130 purchase would be a "symbolic move."
"Vietnam will try to explore more areas of security and defense cooperation between Vietnam and the United States to upgrade to a higher, more meaningful level," he told VOA on August 30. "The C-130 would be the symbol of that kind of evolving relationship," he said.
Phuong said a C-130 is a likely entry point as there is still mistrust between the former foes regarding lethal weapons, and the deal would not rankle China too much.
"It could be quite advantageous for Vietnam," he said of a potential C-130 purchase. "Vietnam can improve its relationship with the United States, and at the same time, we could not anger China because Vietnam would just buy non-lethal weapons."
Rising nationalism
Although there are positive signs to improving Hanoi-Washington relations, there have also been recent instances of anti-Western sentiment that could be an impediment to the countries relations, Phuong said.
Fulbright University Vietnam, which has significant backing from the United States, is facing accusations of fomenting a “color revolution,” similar to the popular uprisings in former Soviet republics.
On August 21, Vietnam National Defense TV aired a critique of Fulbright for allegedly not displaying the Vietnamese flag at a graduation ceremony and facilitating a color revolution.
The report has since been taken down, but Phuong said the Fulbright issue and other recent incidents show tension between Vietnam's conservative and liberal factions.
"It's a presentation of a continuous struggle between different factions, one conservative and one liberal," Phuong said.
Abuza said that Vietnamese authorities may be attempting to tighten control ahead of the anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War in 1975.
"Next April is the 50th anniversary of the fall of Saigon," he said. "The Vietnamese want to control that narrative 100%. There are a lot of sensitivities."
Along with the Fulbright incident, Phuong pointed to recent uproar around Vietnamese celebrities who were pictured with the South Vietnam flag while traveling to the United States. In addition, a Vietnamese high school student faced cyber bullying and was summoned by police after posting in September that he wanted to leave the country and would "probably never see the [Communist] Party positively again."
"There's extreme nationalism in Vietnam at the moment," Phuong said. "It's against Western values."