Our Way Too Early Emmys Predictions

Yes, it’s May. No, the Emmy nominations don’t come out for another two months. But we’ve been back on the Emmys Gold Rush beat for several weeks, and I’m positively itching to do some predicting!

This is, as ever, mostly a lark. We don’t even have the ballot yet, which means some of the following performers might be eligible in different categories. For now, I’ve laid out all the major categories with a wide enough canvas that you can see all the most plausible nominees before I explain why I think a select handful will get nominated.

One thing we don’t know yet is how many nomination slots will be available in each category. While the Drama Series and Comedy Series categories will have eight nominees apiece (Limited Series only gets five), the total number of nominees in each acting category is determined by the total number of performers submitted in those categories:
➼ 20–80 submissions = five nominees
➼ 81–160 submissions = six nominees
➼ 161–240 submissions = seven nominees
➼ More than 240 submissions = eight nominees

Last year, that meant:
➼ six nominees in Lead Actor/Actress in a Comedy
➼ six nominees in Lead Actor/Actress in a Drama
➼ five nominees in Lead Actor/Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
➼ six nominees in Supporting Actor/Actress in a Comedy
➼ seven nominees in Supporting Actor/Actress in a Drama
➼ seven nominees in Supporting Actor/Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll assume those numbers will remain constant.

Outstanding Drama Series

Very Likely:
Severance (Apple TV+)
The Last of Us (HBO)
The Pitt (HBO Max)
The White Lotus (HBO)
Andor (Disney+)

Up for Grabs: 
The Diplomat (Netflix)
Slow Horses (Apple TV+)
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
The Day of the Jackal (Peacock)
Squid Game (Netflix)
Matlock (CBS)
Yellowjackets (Showtime)
Paradise (Hulu)
House of the Dragon (HBO)

For Your Consideration:
Industry (HBO)
Black Doves (Netflix)

There seems to be a very definite line of demarcation between the top-five shows in this category and everyone else. I could make a case for any of Andor, The Last of Us, The Pitt, Severance, or The White Lotus to win, so let’s stick a pin in that conversation until after nomination day. For now, the most intense competition is happening in that second level. Slow Horses was nominated last year and stands tall among the scrum of spy shows. The Diplomat got its foot in the door last year with a nomination for Keri Russell. The Handmaid’s Tale is a former winner that tends to overperform expectations; do not assume this show is dead until it’s good and buried. Meanwhile, Yellowjackets and Squid Game are both former Drama Series nominees, even if the buzz for both shows died down with their most recent seasons.

Hulu’s Paradise is an interesting case, in that it’s a show created by Dan Fogelman, whose This Is Us was a frequent Emmy player, and stars that show’s Emmy winner Sterling K. Brown. Paradise is a much less grounded show, what with its postapocalyptic bunker conspiracies, but the voters did go for Fallout last year, an even less-grounded show about postapocalyptic bunker living that didn’t have nearly as strong a pedigree as Paradise does.

The Day of the Jackal is very prestige-y, which ought to help when it’s competing against, say, Matlock — though the network hit could do the reverse-coattails thing and ride to a nomination on the basis of Kathy Bates being a major presence in the Lead Actress race. Then there’s House of the Dragon, which underwhelmed at the Emmys two years ago but still pulled down a Drama Series nomination. The second season having aired a full year ahead of this year’s nominations is going to put it well out of sight for many voters.

As far as making a case for some long shots, I have to acknowledge my colleagues here at Vulture are wild about Industry, which made three of our TV critics’ top-ten lists last year. Horny financial nihilism is none of my business, so I’ll instead I’ll put in a word for the Netflix spy series Black Doves, where Keira Knightley and Ben Whishaw play a U.K. spy and her gay assassin best pal; some very sturdy, stylish, and somehow heartfelt thrills in that one.

Predictions: Severance, The Last of Us, The Pitt, The White Lotus, Andor, Slow Horses, The Handmaid’s Tale, The Day of the Jackal

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Very Likely:
Noah Wyle, The Pitt
Adam Scott, Severance
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses

Up for Grabs:
Diego Luna, Andor
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Eddie Redmayne, The Day of the Jackal
Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Jon Hamm, Your Friends and Neighbors
Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game
Billy Bob Thornton, Landman
Jeff Bridges, The Old Man

For Your Consideration:
Jacob Anderson, Interview With the Vampire

One of the more open-ended questions entering the Emmy-nomination phase — how well can The Pitt do? The ceiling is high, but I’d also caution Pitt Heads to be guarded in your optimism, especially when it comes to categories where The White Lotus can flood the playing field. That’s not the case in Lead Actor, so feel free to get your hopes up when it comes to Noah Wyle landing his first Emmy nomination since 1999. His top competition for the win should be Severance star Adam Scott, who managed to be even more impressive in the show’s long-delayed second season, pulling what amounted to double duty playing Mark’s Innie and Outie growing increasingly at odds with each other. The other near certainty in Lead Actor should be Gary Oldman, who anchors Slow Horses with a slovenly charisma that is, against all odds, deeply watchable.

With at minimum three more nominations up for grabs in this category, the conversation likely starts with Andor’s Diego Luna, who anchors the show with a gravitas that grows steelier over the course of the series. That said, two years ago, when Andor received a Drama Series nomination, Luna was left out in the cold for Best Actor. Though Andor managed to become even more impressive in its second season, its expansion to multiple story lines, characters, and locations has meant Luna’s Cassian Andor was one of several focal points and a less dominating presence over the show’s screen time this season. I’d still put my money on him getting a nomination, but it’s not fully certain.

Meanwhile, the only reason to question a second Pedro Pascal nomination for The Last of Us is because of his decreased screen time in the second season. HBO will be running him as lead, if for no other reason than not to spoil the season for voters who may not have watched yet, but he’s certainly not the dominant figure he was in season one.

Old Emmy favorites on new TV shows will be elbowing their way toward the fifth and sixth slots this year, including Paradise star Sterling K. Brown playing a secret service agent tasked with solving the murder of the president in a futuristic underground city, and John Hamm in Apple’s Your Friends and Neighbors as a character who starts out as a hedge fund manager and somehow gets even worse. Finally, the long-awaited return of Squid Game means that Lee Jung-jae is back to defend his 2023 Emmy victory.

Then there are the Oscar winners: Eddie Redmayne finds himself in contention for Peacock’s series-length remake of The Day of the Jackal, while Jeff Bridges seeks another nomination for season two of FX’s The Old Man. Billy Bob Thornton, an Oscar winner for writing Sling Blade all the way back in 1996, brings a ton of gravitas to the top of the call sheet for Taylor Sheridan’s Landman, though it’s still probably worth noting that everybody in the Landman cast is currently taking a back seat to Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, whose prospective Emmy nomination as a guest actor may well be one of the season’s hottest story lines.

AMC is not the Emmy network it once was, and that’s only part of the reason why Interview With the Vampire — a show that blends sex politics and violence as well as anything on television today — probably finds itself too far outside the boundaries of a popular vote. That said, in a perfect world, Jacob Anderson’s performance as Louis de Pointe du Lac would be right at the top of any list of predicted nominees.

Predictions: Noah Wiley, Adam Scott, Gary Oldman, Diego Luna, Pedro Pascal, Sterling K. Brown

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Very Likely:
Kathy Bates, Matlock
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Britt Lower, Severance

Up for Grabs: 
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Keira Knightley, Black Doves
Zoe Saldaña, Lioness
Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters
Emma D’Arcy, House of the Dragon
Marisa Abela, Industry

For Your Consideration:
Carrie Preston, Elsbeth

Kathy Bates being the current front-runner to win the Emmy Award in 2025 for a reboot of Matlock is both delightful and also an indicator of how all over the map this category is. Beyond Bates, the only stone-cold lock is Bella Ramsey making a repeat appearance for their role in The Last of Us, for a season two in which their character is pushed even further to emotional extremes of betrayal and regret.

In a more upwardly competitive year, I wouldn’t feel quite so confident predicting the likes of Elisabeth Moss (whose The Handmaid’s Tale is ending with a fraction of the industry status it once had), Keri Russell (whose The Diplomat resides comfortably in a middle tier of streaming series), and Britt Lower (a standout on Severance but whose lack of a nomination for the show’s first season leaves a sliver of doubt that Academy voters really get her). Right now, their pros vastly outweigh their cons: Moss is a former winner in this category; Russell was nominated last year; Lower is giving what I’d consider the best performance in this category, and while I’m not a voter, I can’t imagine I’m alone in that assessment.

So that’s five actresses. There will be at least one more nominated among a vast number of contenders. The ones I’m giving most consideration to: Melanie Lynskey, who’s been nominated for both of Yellowjackets’ seasons so far, and Sharon Horgan, who was nominated two years ago for Bad Sisters. The buzz on both of their shows has severely diminished, but they’re still delivering incredible work. Keira Knightley’s prestige status as a two-time Oscar nominee should help her name pop on voters’ ballots, something that should be even more true for recent Oscar winner Zoe Saldaña, even if Lioness does feel like one of those shows Paramount+ made up for their promo reels.

Then there are the two deeply cool long shots representing two incredibly different HBO shows: Emma D’Arcy, who was snubbed for a nomination two years ago despite House of the Dragon’s Drama Series nomination, and Industry’s Marisa Abela. The latter has thus far not been able to capture the TV Academy’s fancy through the show’s first two seasons, which is usually proof that voters just aren’t into a show en masse. But Industry has its fans, and Abela in particular has a rising-star quality after co-starring in Steven Soderbergh’s Black Bag earlier this year and recently winning a BAFTA TV award.

As for Carrie Preston, my case is thus: If you can give me a good reason Kathy Bates is a shoo-in for her quirky CBS legal procedural and Preston isn’t for hers, it’ll be the first good reason I’ve heard. Also, Preston was nominated twice for playing Elsbeth Tascioni on The Good Wife and won once. What is the Emmys’ problem with the Good Wife Extended Universe??

Predictions: Kathy Bates, Bella Ramsey, Elisabeth Moss, Britt Lower, Keri Russell, Keira Knightley

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Very Likely:
Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus
Walton Goggins, The White Lotus

Up for Grabs:
Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus
Sam Nivola, The White Lotus
Patrick Schwarzenegger, The White Lotus
John Turturro, Severance
Tramell Tillman, Severance
Zach Cherry, Severance
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
Jonathan Pryce, Slow Horses
Patrick Ball, The Pitt
Gerran Howell, The Pitt
Stellan Skarsgård, Andor
Kyle Soller, Andor

For Your Consideration:
Ben Whishaw, Black Doves

In a category that last year listed only seven nominees, there are essentially five shows that will try to pack the ballot with a bloc of male cast members. This is the strategy that has served The White Lotus well over the course of its first two seasons: Why make fraught decisions over which of your cast members to push for consideration when the voters will just vote for all of them if they like your show enough? Even coming off of what I consider to be a down season, there is every possibility Lotus nabs anywhere from two to five nominations. Walton Goggins is currently blitzing press the hardest with his cheesecake photo shoots and SNL hosting gig, but I’d argue Jason Isaacs was even more impressive in his performance as a financier about to go down with the ship (metaphorically, it should be said, given the show we’re talking about).

After Isaacs and Goggins, I assume we’re getting at least one more White Lotus nomination. Sam Rockwell had the Guest Actor win on lock for his stunning Bangkok monologue, but the show weaseled him into enough episodes to qualify for Supporting. He’s certainly good enough to earn the nomination. Will either of the Ratliff boys join him? Sam Nivola had the more interior character, but by the end of the season, Patrick Schwarzenegger’s Saxson was the one who experienced the patented White Lotus change of perspective.

Team Severance includes 2022 nominee John Turturro, whose arc, while stunted, had a gripping peak. In the days where episode submissions mattered, Turturro’s “Woe’s Hollow” performance would have been formidable. Meanwhile, Tramell Tillman was a curious snub from the Supporting Actor ranks in 2022 (he probably should’ve gotten the nomination that went to Christopher Walken); his Milchick only grew more psychologically complex this season, and with Tillman leveling up to Mission: Impossible movies, this seems like the moment he’ll catch Emmy voters’ attention. Speaking of catching Emmy voters’ attention, if I may: Please do not make me come back to this space in mid-July hollering for justice for Zach Cherry, whose Dylan is the underestimated rock upon which Severance stands.

The more interesting conversation for The Pitt is going to happen in Supporting Actress; unfortunately I think both Patrick Ball (as the too-brash Dr. Langdon) and Gerran Howell (as the rat-killing fluid-magnet Whitaker) have an uphill climb to nominations. Slow Horses at least has the benefit of Jack Lowden and Jonathan Pryce having been nominated last season. Pryce, a Supporting Actor nominee last year for The Crown, was also Guest Actor nominee for Slow Horses, though he was leveled up to main cast member for the most recent season. Lowden, meanwhile, has the benefit of being more or less a co-lead slumming it in Supporting. Speaking of co-leads slumming it in the Supporting Actor category: If this is indeed where Netflix ends up campaigning Ben Whishaw for Black Doves, consider voting for him anyway. He’s the best performance on a deeply underrated show, playing a wounded soul under his assassin character’s fearsome edge. Finally, among the many worthy contenders within the Andor ensemble, it’s easy to see why the standouts are Kyle Soller’s turn as the morally compromised Syril Karn and Stellan Skarsgård’s dextrous and dominating Luthen Rael.

Predictions: Jason Isaacs, Walton Goggins, Sam Rockwell, Tramell Tillman, John Turturro, Jonathan Pryce, Patrick Schwarzenegger

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Very Likely:
Parker Posey, The White Lotus
Carrie Coon, The White Lotus
Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus
Patricia Arquette, Severance

Up for Grabs: 
Allison Janney, The Diplomat
Leslie Bibb, The White Lotus
Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus
Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt
Taylor Dearden, The Pitt
Fiona Dourif, The Pitt
Isa Briones, The Pitt
Tracy Ifeachor, The Pitt
Dichen Lachman, Severance
Isabela Merced, The Last of Us
Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale
Julianne Nicholson, Paradise
Kristin Scott Thomas, Slow Horses
Sarah Lancashire, Black Doves

For Your Consideration: 
Denise Gough, Andor
Genevieve O’Reilly, Andor
Adria Arjona, Andor

As with Supporting Actor, so much depends on how much the voters still love The White Lotus, because there is no shortage of contenders from season three. Best positioned are Parker Posey (the meme queen Jennifer Coolidge of this group) and Carrie Coon (that season-finale monologue really bumped her to the front of the line). I’d also add Natasha Rothwell, who was nominated for the show’s first season and had an even bigger presence this time around. The other no-brainer here is Patricia Arquette, who is not only a previous nominee for Severance’s first season but also a huge Emmy fave in general, having been nominated for her acting five times and winning twice (for Medium in 2005 and The Act in 2019).

Then the maelstrom begins, with more than a dozen actresses with a credible claim to one of what is likely to be around three slots. I almost put Allison Janney’s performance as the formidable but untrustworthy veep in The Diplomat as “Very Likely,” but she only appears in two episodes of the six-episode second season. (She could have submitted in the Guest category but apparently chose not to.)

The most interesting questions of the Supporting Actress race is who and how many actresses could emerge from The Pitt. Quite simply there are far too many worthy contenders for what is likely one, maybe two nominations. I’ve been ranking Katherine LaNasa at the top of my list for her performance as the tough, capable charge nurse Dana Evans. She is top-notch, especially in the second half of the season when she gets seriously rattled by a violent event. I also think this is a case where the nature of her character — the quiet authority everybody respects — will play into the voters seeing her as first among equals. But there are cases to be made for so many of The Pitt’s supporting actresses: Taylor Dearden’s Mel is an incredibly endearing character (and Dearden is an Emmy legacy, the daughter of four-time winner Bryan Cranston); Fiona Dourif and Isa Briones both enjoyed season-long arcs that frequently put them in the spotlight; the same goes for Tracy Ifeachor as senior resident Dr. Heather Collins, though her absence from the big mass-casualty event at the end of the season could hurt her chances.

As for the rest of the field: Ann Dowd is a former winner, though she hasn’t been nominated since 2021; Kristen Scott Thomas somehow wasn’t nominated last year for Slow Horses, which probably doesn’t bode too well for her this year. Julianne Nicholson is an interesting case: The Emmy winner for Mare of Easttown goes for broke as a post-apocalyptic power broker on Paradise and is only supplementing her case with her current performance on Hacks.

Meanwhile, I say this for I’m sure not the last time: What are we even doing here if the supporting categories aren’t absolutely stuffed with Andor cast members? Here’s where I make my particular stand: Denise Gough is giving the kind of performance the Emmy Awards are made for, and any voter who voted for Ann Dowd back when The Handmaid’s Tale was the politically pertinent show of the moment should find it easy to apply that same rubric to Gough’s toxically efficient imperial operator. If heroism is more your thing, there’s Genevieve O’Reilly shaming Chuck Schumer to death from the Senate floor and then beating her hasty retreat, or Adria Arjona playing Bix’s mental degradation after suffering so much, only to pull herself back from the brink. How about all of them, Emmy voters??

Predictions: Parker Posey, Carrie Coon, Patricia Arquette, Natasha Rothwell, Allison Janney, Katherine LaNasa, Taylor Dearden

Outstanding Comedy Series

Very Likely:
Hacks (HBO Max)
The Bear (FX)
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
The Studio (Apple TV+)

Up for Grabs: 
Nobody Wants This (Netflix)
The Four Seasons (Netflix)
A Man on the Inside (Netflix)
The Residence (Netflix)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
Poker Face (Peacock)
The Righteous Gemstones (HBO)
Somebody Somewhere (HBO)
The Rehearsal (HBO)
English Teacher (FX)

For Your Consideration: 
Agatha All Along (Disney+)

I’ve written at length about the Big Four comedies — defending champ Hacks, the 2023 winner The Bear, three-time nominee Abbott Elementary, and recent SAG Best Cast champ Only Murders in the Building — and why Apple’s The Studio is so well positioned to take them on. That leaves three slots open for every other comedy on TV. Netflix desperately wants/needs to get at least one of those slots, and that seems likely — the question is which? They seem to be pushing Nobody Wants This the hardest, and it’s definitely the show that has the most momentum, having accumulated a bunch of nominations for the show and its stars, Rabbi Adam Brody and Shiksa Kristen Bell, during the year-end award shows a few months ago.

The Four Seasons appears to be picking up momentum as a late-breaking crowd-pleaser aimed directly at Emmy voters who miss the good old days of Tina Fey and Steve Carell sharing space on NBC. That leaves less room for my two Netflix faves: A Man on the Inside, where Ted Danson infiltrates an elder-care facility as a mole and ends up charming a bevy of character actresses, and The Residence, a silly murder mystery set in the White House that I think did the season-long whodunnit thing better than the most recent Only Murders in the Building season.

The final season of What We Do in the Shadows is seeking a farewell nomination, which I’d say is a 50-50 proposition. FX’s vampire comedy has been a frequent Emmy player, but voters may have already moved on since the finale in December. Speaking of swan songs, a pair of beloved HBO shows — The Righteous Gemstones and Somebody Somewhere — ended their multi-season runs this year, and while neither one of them ever captured Emmy voters’ fancy, it might be a nice surprise to give one (or both!) a going-away present.

Poker Face underperformed at last year’s Emmys and this year is only releasing half of its season before the May 31 cutoff date. Peacock has yet to find its footing as an Emmy player, and Rian Johnson’s anthology series seems to be suffering for it.

Two long-shots that merit mentioning: HBO’s The Rehearsal, which is once again garnering rapturous praise and discomfort, often both at the same time. This is very much not a show built for Emmy success — or any kind of success that involves large numbers of people finding consensus — but in these days of audience fragmentation, and with eight shows to nominate, Nathan Fielder’s show is worth considering. And then there’s FX’s The English Teacher, one of this season’s funniest shows and one that probably would have been a serious Emmy contender before star and creator Brian Jordan Alvarez’s history of alleged sexual misconduct was brought to light. And yet … English Teacher was renewed for a second season in February, and it’s still getting nominations from voting bodies like the Gotham TV Awards. Would the Emmys really invite controversy so willingly? I’m going to instead advocate for the Disney+ series Agatha All Along, a thrillingly singular piece of MCU entertainment that, now that the Thunderbolts*/new Avengers success has people thinking better about Marvel these days, deserves a second look.

Predictions: Hacks, The Bear, Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building, The Studio, Nobody Wants This, What We Do in the Shadows, The Four Seasons

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Very Likely:
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Seth Rogen, The Studio
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

Up for Grabs: 
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Steve Carell, The Four Seasons
Matt Berry, What We Do in the Shadows
Kayvan Novak, What We Do in the Shadows
Luke Kirby, Étoile

For Your Consideration:
Ted Danson, A Man on the Inside

Jeremy Allen White, two-time defending champion, is almost certainly secure in getting another nomination, but I wonder how much the The Bear backlash could impact a possible third win. And if so, would Seth Rogen really be the beneficiary? He’s incredibly funny in The Studio, but he’s never been all that respected by awards voters. (He was really good in Steve Jobs, you guys!) Still, these are post-nomination questions — for now, JAW, and Seth are secure.

I find it deeply funny that most of the Emmy predictions I’ve seen this spring have rated Martin Short as more secure for a nomination (or even an outside shot at a win) than his co-star Steve Martin, a situation likely due to Short’s sudden spike in media visibility thanks to his maybe-probably romantic relationship with Meryl Streep. Never let them tell you that power coupling is a young person’s game!

We’re likely looking at six nominees in this category, and if we allow that Steve Martin is still probably going to get nominated despite the fact that he isn’t dating the most Oscar-nominated actress of all time, that leaves two spots open. Emmy voters have proved their love for Luke Kirby in the past (three Guest Actor nominations and one win for playing Lenny Bruce on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), but I don’t think Étoile will be crashing this particular Emmy category. Matt Berry finally broke through as a nominee last year, and I’m not counting out What We Do in the Shadows from getting a farewell acting nomination; in fact, I think Berry’s co-star Kayvan Novak could be just as likely to nab that one … or they end up splitting each other’s votes.

Truthfully, I think those last nominations end up going to two of Adam Brody, Jason Segel, and Steve Carell. It’s like taking a time machine back to 2006. Segel has the advantage of being previously nominated for Shrinking, while Brody has the advantage of having picked up Critics Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG nominations for Nobody Wants This. Clearly, many people do! Carell is the Johnny come lately to this category for his role as a somewhat embarrassing divorcee in the late-premiering The Four Seasons, but his track record (seven acting nominations for The Office and The Morning Show) makes him impossible to ignore. Meanwhile, I’ll be over here crying the blues that 18-time nominee Ted Danson isn’t getting a fair shake for playing a nice, handsome older gentleman in A Man on the Inside. He’s great, though!

Predictions: Jeremy Allen White, Seth Rogen, Martin Short, Steve Martin, Adam Brody, Jason Segel

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Very Likely:
Jean Smart, Hacks
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building

Up for Grabs: 
Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Uzo Aduba, The Residence
Kathryn Hahn, Agatha All Along
Tina Fey, The Four Seasons
Natasia Demetriou, What We Do in the Shadows

For Your Consideration:
Bridget Everett, Somebody Somewhere

We’re getting into “nobody beats Jean Smart at the Emmys” territory, but that’s a post-nominations conversation. For now, let’s assume she’s safer than safe, and she’ll most likely be joined by former Emmy winners Ayo Edebiri and Quinta Brunson, as well as Selena Gomez, who finally got her first acting nomination last year.

As is the case with her co-star Adam Brody, Kristen Bell has a handful of precursor nominations that let her know she’s pretty popular among the vote-casting types. But her opponents for the nomination are no slouches: Lyonne is a five-time nominee, including acting nods for Russian Doll, Orange Is the New Black, and, two years ago, the first season of Poker Face. The structure of her show also gives her a deductive spotlight scene (or three) in every episode. The same goes for her Orange Is the New Black co-star Uzo Aduba, a multi-Emmy winner whose quirky detective character is always the center of whatever circus is happening on The Residence.

Kathryn Hahn’s only drawback for Agatha All Along is that, unlike Elizabeth Olsen’s Emmy-nominated work in WandaVision, Hahn is dealing with a lot more competition for the spotlight in Agatha, including no less a scene-stealer than Patti LuPone. Tina Fey, another longtime Emmy fave, could eke out a nomination for playing (stop me if you’ve heard this) a too-sarcastic-and-critical-for-her-own-good urbanite in The Four Seasons. And, again, I don’t think a better-late-than-never nomination for Natasia Demetriou would be out of the question. Were it my call, of course, I’d be handing a long-overdue nomination to Bridget Everett for her boldly funny and daringly touching performance in Somebody Somewhere’s home stretch.

Predictions: Jean Smart, Ayo Edebiri, Quinta Brunson, Selena Gomez, Kristen Bell, and, oh why not, Natasia Demetriou

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Very Likely:
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Paul W. Downs, Hacks

Up for Grabs: 
Lionel Boyce, The Bear
Michael Urie, Shrinking
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Ike Barinholtz, The Studio
Timothy Simons, Nobody Wants This
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live
Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live
Marcello Hernandez, Saturday Night Live
Brett Goldstein, Shrinking

For Your Consideration:
Ted McGinley, Shrinking

Ebon Moss-Bachrach won this award the last two years, and even though Cousin’s season-three story line doubled back and repeated beats from the first two, I’d still place my chips on him to win a third. Especially because Paul W. Downs’s Jimmy isn’t quite the shadow-protagonist he was last season on Hacks. I’d still lock him in for a second straight nomination though.

The other five-ish slots in this category will be, I think, very competitive. Lionel Boyce and Tyler James Williams were both nominees last year (Williams has been nominated for each of Abbott’s first three seasons). Two actors who occupy somewhat the same space on their shows will be scrambling for spots in the lineup. Ike Barinholtz gets quite a few moments to shine in his role as Seth Rogen’s more obnoxious but also probably more capable head of production on The Studio (the episode where he and Chase Sui Wonders square off for second-banana supremacy is deeply funny). Timothy Simons, forever undervalued by the Emmys on Veep, steals several scenes over the course of Nobody Wants This’s first season as Adam Brody’s brother.

You’ve got internal competition at shows like Saturday Night Live — Bowen Yang has been nominated three of the last four years, Kenan Thompson is the respected veteran, and Marcello Hernandez got the breakout character of the season in “Domingo” — and Shrinking. This situation is kind of fascinating: You’d think Harrison Ford’s whole all-time-legendary-movie-star thing would make him a shoo-in for a nomination, but he took a trip to the Temple of Snub when the 2023 nominations were announced, despite co-stars Jason Segel and Jessica Williams getting nominated. Since then, it’s been Michael Urie picking up precursor attention (including a win at Critics Choice) for his role as Segel’s confident/anxious (read: gay) best friend. Then there’s the matter of Brett Goldstein, whose supersize recurring role as the guilt-riddled driver who killed Segel’s wife could pull votes, as Goldstein is also co-creator of the show and a two-time winner in this category for Ted Lasso.

I, however, will be supporting a different Shrinking cast member, and that is the great Ted McGinley. The longtime television utility player who once had a deeply unfair reputation as a “show killer” (he joined Married… With Children and it lasted SEVEN more seasons, ya dopes!) has revealed hidden depths to his role as Derek, dumb husband guy who not-so-secretly Gets It. McGinley has never been nominated for an Emmy in his 45-year television career. Let’s fix that!

Predictions: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Paul W. Downs, Ike Barinholtz, Tyler James Williams, Michael Urie, Harrison Ford

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Very Likely:
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary

Up for Grabs: 
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Catherine O’Hara, The Studio
Kathryn Hahn, The Studio
Chase Sui Wonders, The Studio
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building 
Meg Stalter, Hacks 
Molly Shannon, Only Murders in the Building 
Jane Lynch, Only Murders in the Building
Justine Lupe, Nobody Wants This
Patti LuPone, Agatha All Along 
Linda Lavin, Mid-Century Modern 

For Your Consideration:
Abby Elliott, The Bear

Is this finally Hannah Einbinder’s year? I mean, I think so, but I’ve been wrong about this before. Defending champion Liza Colón-Zayas knows what I’m talking about. As does 2022 champ Sheryl Lee Ralph. I’d lock the three of them in as nominees, and I’ll not be sleeping on Colón-Zayas like I did last year, considering she got a whole spotlight episode in The Bear season three.

With three-ish slots up for grabs, the competition gets intense quickly. Janelle James has yet to miss an Emmy nomination for Abbott, and Ava brings it every episode. Meanwhile, Jessica Williams was already nominated for Shrinking back in 2023, and I think she had an even stronger season two; I’d consider both to be big contenders. And I continue to see Catherine O’Hara as a threat to win if she can get past the nomination hurdle — it’s just a matter of the voters who like The Studio not putting their votes on Kathryn Hahn or Chase Sui Wonders instead.

Who else could break into this group of six? Meryl Streep was nominated last year, though she was a much smaller presence on Only Murders this season. If voters ended up liking that show’s Hollywood excursion a lot more than I did, they could also go for Molly Shannon or Jane Lynch, both of whom were excellent; I just think the competition is probably too fierce this year.

If Emmy voters feel like cosplaying as Tony voters, they could certainly throw their support behind Agatha All Along’s Patti LuPone, whose spotlight episode was probably the season’s best, or Linda Lavin, who sadly passed away while making the first season of Hulu’s Mid-Century Modern. That show’s touching send-off to both Lavin and her character feel like a reminder that a posthumous nomination would be atonement for the Emmys nominating her only once for Alice.

Two very interesting cases are Hacks’s Megan Stalter and Nobody Wants This’s Justine Lupe. Stalter is the flavor of the moment in Hollywood; she’ll be starring in Lena Dunham’s much anticipated new series, Too Much, later this summer. Meanwhile, Justine Lupe remains one of the vanishingly few members of the Succession ensemble who were not fêted by Emmy voters; she’s giving a very different character as Kristen Bell’s manipulator-with-a-heart-of-gold sister in Nobody Wants This (it’s her, she’s Nobody), making a great Emmy case for herself in the process.

I’m throwing my support behind an unconventional (for me) choice. I’m often irked by the Emmys’ historical practice of rewarding shows or actors the year after they most deserved it (Julianna Margulies losing to Kyra Sedgwick for The Closer and then winning the next year for The Good Wife; Jodie Comer getting snubbed entirely for the first season of Killing Eve then winning the next year). And yet, a year after I thought Abby Elliott was so incredible on The Bear, with Natalie taking on so much of the management responsibility at the restaurant, only to get left out of the nominations entirely, I’d nominate her again this year just to make a point. (It’s not out of the question, either. Natalie gets a whole having-a-baby episode for season three, and Emmy voters traditionally love those.)

Predictions: Hannah Einbinder, Liza Colón-Zayas, Sheryl Lee Ralph, Janelle James, Jessica Williams, Catherine O’Hara

Outstanding Limited Series

Very Likely:
Adolescence (Netflix)
The Penguin (HBO Max)
Dying for Sex (FX)

Up for Grabs: 
Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story (Netflix)
Disclaimer (Apple TV+)
Say Nothing (FX)
Black Mirror (Netflix)
Dope Thief (Hulu)
Zero Day (Netflix)
Apple Cider Vinegar (Netflix)
Sirens (Netflix)
The Perfect Couple (Netflix)
La Máquina (Hulu)

For Your Consideration:
Presumed Innocent (Apple TV+)

Much like last year, Netflix will likely come up short in the Drama and Comedy categories but find its salvation in the Limited Series. Adolescence isn’t quite in the same mold as Baby Reindeer — it’s more outwardly serious, with a gimmick (single-take episodes) that doesn’t step beyond the fourth wall the way Baby Reindeer did. But Adolescence does retain a similar importance of subject matter in its wrenching story about a young English boy credibly accused of stabbing a female classmate to death. It’s hard to imagine how any of these other series could beat it, even as a few of them were accomplished in their own right.

The Penguin certainly exceeded expectations as a DC superhero spinoff, settling into a hard-boiled crime story involving the mob and multiple twists and betrayals. And Elizabeth Meriwether’s adaptation of the podcast Dying for Sex was a smart, funny, and touching exploration of everyone’s favorite subjects, sex and death.

Beyond those three shows, it’s a real scrum. Alfonso Cuarón’s Disclaimer arrived with a ton of hype given the two-time Oscar-winning director’s pairing with two-time Oscar winner Cate Blanchett, but you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who watched all of that show out of anything but obligation. Ryan Murphy continues to churn out series to which critics turn up their noses but upon which Emmy voters stamp their approval. The first season of Monster, focused on the Jeffrey Dahmer murders, pulled in 13 nominations in 2023 and tied Beef for Netflix’s most nominated show that year. The second season’s focus on the Menendez brothers’ patricide is loud, confrontational, and approaches the case from multiple perspectives at once, which can either come across as daring or incoherent. Regardless, in a weak year for Limited Series, I’d peg Monsters as a strong contender.

You’d think FX’s Say Nothing, about a pair of sisters coming of age while serving in the Irish Republican Army, would get a lot of traction, if for no other reason than it’s honestly quite good. Alas, the Disney machine seems to have abandoned it. Apple’s Dope Thief, about a narcotics heist that becomes something much bigger, is the kind of sturdy, unpretentious series that could do well in a year where there’s a lot of flashy junk.

Meanwhile, as is its custom, Netflix has flooded the zone with B- and C-tier options that all seem to be battling each other: Zero Day doing the geopolitical crisis thing; Apple Cider Vinegar acting like it’s 2022 again with its wellness-grifter story ripped from the headlines; another season of Black Mirror pretending like it’s a bunch of small movies. And then there are the twinned beach-read series The Perfect Couple and Sirens, which feel like consecutive seasons of The White Lotus for people who want to pay 50 percent less attention. The Perfect Couple can’t merely submit its opening credits for consideration, alas, so I’d probably give a small edge to Sirens in the head-to-head.

Also, if we’re going to be scraping for contenders, may I remind Emmy voters that Apple TV+’s Presumed Innocent did air during the current Emmy eligibility period, and despite news of a second season, it will be submitting as a Limited Series. I liked it when it premiered, and after a year of largely underwhelming limited series, I like it even more.

Predictions: Adolescence, The Penguin, Dying for Sex, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story, Dope Thief

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Very Likely:
Colin Farrell, The Penguin
Stephen Graham, Adolescence
Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story

Up for Grabs: 
Brian Tyree Henry, Dope Thief
Robert De Niro, Zero Day
Nicholas Alexander Chavez, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Kevin Kline, Disclaimer
Jake Gyllenhaal, Presumed Innocent
Leo Woodall, Prime Target
Paul Giamatti, Black Mirror

For Your Consideration:
Aaron Pierre, Rebel Ridge

I wouldn’t even worry about Colin Farrell, Stephen Graham, or Cooper Koch. They’re good until the post-nomination discussion, when we decide whether being Irish, English, or a former Calvin Klein model is the inside track to an Emmy.

Elsewhere, this category is typically full of A-list names looking to pad their award stats. Does Robert De Niro really need an Emmy nomination for a forgettable show like Zero Day? Probably not. Will Kevin Kline getting nominated for Disclaimer make up for his not getting the Oscar nod he deserved for Dave? Unlikely. Will a Paul Giamatti nomination for a Black Mirror episode contribute more to the culture than the time he hid inside a dumpster for the entirety of a Chris Gethard Show episode? Absolutely not. That said, Jake Gyllenhaal does need a Presumed Innocent nomination, that Othello Tonys snub could use a balm.

Somewhat lower on the ladder of fame, the Emmys might look to Brian Tyree Henry’s Dope Thief performance, which has already gotten a Gotham nomination. Or perhaps Leo Woodall, who could draft off his former White Lotus success toward a nod for his performance as a mathematician caught up in international intrigue in Apple’s Prime Target.

I’d also not count out Cooper Koch’s onscreen brother, Nicholas Alexander Chavez. His Lyle was certainly the less sympathetic of the two brothers, but Chavez’s coked-up mania was its own kind of show, and the former General Hospital star is already a Daytime Emmy winner, so he’s got that pedigree.

Meanwhile, I’m making the case for Aaron Pierre, the star of the Netflix feature-film-but-we’re-calling-it-TV movie Rebel Ridge. TV movies tend to fare terribly in the acting categories where they’re mixed in with the limited-series crowd, but Pierre’s performance as a good man getting railroaded by a corrupt police fiefdom is phenomenal and worth a serious look.

Predictions: Colin Farrell, Stephen Graham, Cooper Koch, Brian Tyree Henry, Nicholas Alexander Chavez

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Very Likely:
Cristin Milioti, The Penguin
Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex

Up for Grabs: 
Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy
Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer
Kaitlyn Dever, Apple Cider Vinegar
Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Ellen Pompeo, Good American Family
Meghann Fahy, Sirens

For Your Consideration
Ari Graynor, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story

Milioti and Williams will be engaging in a neck-and-neck battle for the Emmy … and for my own personal vote (not a real vote). Which three actresses will join them? Cate Blanchett has her own considerable reputation to ride on, even if Disclaimer feels like a deflated balloon now. Ellen Pompeo’s much hyped Hulu miniseries about the Natalia Grace case, Good American Family, similarly failed to catch on. So we’re turning to some Emmy mainstays. Kaitlyn Dever — a 2022 nominee for Dopesick — has the one-two punch of The Last of Us and Apple Cider Vinegar this year. She’ll be submitting as a guest actress for the former series, and enthusiasm for that performance could easily spill over to her effective turn in the latter as a wellness grifter (complete with an impressive — to my ear, anyway — Aussie accent).

I know I just said performers from TV movies don’t do very well in the acting categories, but Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy was so well-received, and Renée Zellweger is so iconic in the role, I imagine Emmy voters will be drawn to her regardless. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat is another TV movie that’s hoping to contend, with a trio of lead performances from Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Uzo Aduba, and Sanaa Lathan as three lifelong friends. And while I think she’d be a better fit in supporting actress, Ari Graynor’s performance as attorney Leslie Abramson in Monsters is some of the best work of her career. That show’s much-lauded episode where Cooper Koch’s Erik tells his harrowing story is a two-hander with Graynor more than capably holding up her end.

Predictions: Cristin Milioti, Michelle Williams, Renée Zellweger, Kaitlyn Dever, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Very Likely:
Owen Cooper, Adolescence
Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story

Up for Grabs: 
Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex
Ashley Walters, Adolescence
Rhenzy Feliz, The Penguin
Peter Sarsgaard, Presumed Innocent
Diego Luna, La Máquina
Nathan Lane, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Don Johnson, Rebel Ridge

For Your Consideration
O-T Fagbenle, Presumed Innocent

Cooper is probably running away with this award, and rightly so, as the teenage killer of Adolescence, and Javier Bardem is chewing scenery in Monsters. With their nominations secure, I’d look into the supporting casts of the year’s other top limited series. Rob Delaney is sexy and supportive in Dying for Sex, a show that pays off so much of the promise he displayed in Catastrophe. Meanwhile, Rhenzy Feliz gets a showcase as Oz’s criminal apprentice in The Penguin, and Ashley Walters anchors his own episode of Adolescence as a police investigator trying to make sense of a senseless murder and his own troublingly distant son.

On the fringes, if voters remember Presumed Innocent enough, they may well go for the show’s flashiest performance, Peter Sarsgaard as the dastardly prosecutor. However, I would also make a strong case for O-T Fagbenle as the show’s other, more politically minded antagonist, if only to honor his deliciously bizarre vocal affect. I’d also warn not to underestimate Nathan Lane, whose turn as the gadfly reporter Dominick Dunne blossoms into something poignant in Monsters.

Predictions: Owen Cooper, Javier Bardem, Ashley Walters, Rob Delaney, Nathan Lane, Peter Sarsgaard, Rhenzy Feliz

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Very Likely:
Erin Doherty, Adolescence
Deirdre O’Connell, The Penguin
Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex

Up for Grabs: 
Sissy Spacek, Dying for Sex
Chloë Sevigny, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Julianne Moore, Sirens
Ruth Negga, Presumed Innocent
Cristin Milioti, Black Mirror
Emma Thompson, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy
AnnaSophia Robb, Rebel Ridge

For Your Consideration
Paula Pell, Dying for Sex

Doherty, playing the court-assigned psychologist in Adolescence, anchors the show’s third episode — probably the best of the four — and may well win an Emmy for it. She’ll be up against tough opponents in theater star Deirdre O’Connell, getting her Livia Soprano on as Oz’s manipulative mother in The Penguin, and Jenny Slate, who may well emerge in the race as the most compelling character in Dying for Sex.

The Emmys likes to double dip with its acting nominations, so I’d keep an eye on another Cristin Milioti nomination in Supporting Actress for her Black Mirror episode. Julianne Moore brings her considerable talents to bear on her enigmatic possible cult leader in Sirens. Chloë Sevigny plays a monster mom in Monsters, in ways you’d expect and ways you wouldn’t. Sissy Spacek, playing Michelle Williams’s ever-regretful mom, is quite excellent in Dying for Sex. As is Paula Pell, who would normally be classified as a guest star for her two episodes at the end of Dying for Sex, but since there are no guest stars, technically, in limited series, she’d have to be nominated in Supporting. Finally, Ruth Negga gets what is perhaps ultimately the most interesting role in Presumed Innocent, particularly with respect to the way the TV show adapts the movie’s endgame.

Predictions: Erin Doherty, Deirdre O’Connell, Jenny Slate, Sissy Spacek, Ruth Negga, Chloë Sevigny, Cristin Milioti