Israel will survive the war, but can it withstand the peace?

GOLAN – As Israel’s seven-front war approaches 470 days and with more than 800 IDF soldiers and security forces killed, the tiny Jewish state has been stretched thin. Hamas has been all but eliminated in Gaza, and likewise, Hezbollah in Lebanon. The murderous Assad regime in Syria fell with minimal action by the IDF, but solutions for what comes after are still a quandary and the path to any kind of lasting peace is still unclear.

While morale remains high among the troops, many reserve soldiers have been away from their families and careers with little respite for a year and a half. This has taken a personal toll on the lives of Israeli civilians and soldiers.

Many Israelis have compared the current conflict with the 1973 Yom Kippur War when Israel’s security establishment was caught off guard and forced to pay a heavy price in a multi-front war for the country’s survival. Other similarities reflecting the mental state and attitude of Israelis are becoming apparent.

One symptom common to both wars is emigration. Immigration to Israel is referred to as “Aliyah,” literally “ascending,” hinting at the perception that moving to Israel is a spiritual ascension. Conversely, emigration is referred to as “Yeridah” or “descending.”

The Central Bureau of Statistics reported that last year, immigration to Israel, compared to emigration, represented a net loss of 18,200. In 2024, 82,700 residents left Israel, and only 23,800 returned. The number of new immigrants to the country was 32,800, about 15,000 lower than in 2023. In total, during 2024, the population of Israel grew by 1.1 percent, a decrease in the growth rate compared to 2023 (1.6 percent).

Some 117,000 Israeli citizens have left the country for an extended period and have stopped living in Israel since the outbreak of the war on October 7, 2023 – a figure three times higher than from previous years.

According to the data, more Israelis emigrated from Tel Aviv and Haifa, considered secular enclaves, than from any other city.

The country has experienced several waves of emigration associated with wars. In the 1960s, Israel was hit with a crippling recession, leading to a period of increased emigration. The 1967 Six-Day War followed this wave. The most significant wave of emigration in Israeli history followed the Yom Kippur War. This has been attributed to a national trauma intensified by the belief that the government and military establishment failed the nation.

Once the war is over, Israel will need to cope with the economic repercussions of a protracted conflict.

One mitigating factor to emigration might be the high inflation and unemployment in Europe, the U.S., and Canada. This is exacerbated by the preceding period of COVID which also taxed the economy with shutdowns and restrictions.

Shimon (not his real name) has experienced this difficult period firsthand. He is a religious and strongly Zionist husband and father in his 30s. He served in the IDF at 18, completing a course for religious soldiers called Hesder that incorporated periods of learning interspersed with combat service. He also volunteered for a year of “shlichut,” acting as an emissary in the U.S. to educate Jews and connect them with Israel. In total, Shimon served six years in the IDF. After his service, he learned Arabic at university, going on to work for the government as a liaison with the Arab community.

His language skills were of enormous value to the IDF, and he became an intelligence officer in the reserves, embedded in a combat unit. On Oct.7, even before the IDF called, Shimon drove to the southern border to join his unit. He described the disorganization which characterized the first days of the war with Gaza.

“In the beginning, things were crazy,” Shimon said. “We didn’t know for the first 24 hours or so what was really going on. I had no idea what was going on down south, and if I had known what was going on, there is a good chance I would have gotten my gun from a unit and just driven down there, in which case, there is a good chance I wouldn’t be alive right now.”

“Thankfully, I followed the plans we had set up, and I went to where the army told me to go in times of emergency and join my assigned unit. But many of the guys in my unit just went down and fought.”

Shimon’s job was to interrogate prisoners and pass on the information to his officers, a function which kept him busy night and day for several months. Shimon estimates that he has been home for three weeks in the more than 450 days since the war began.

“The IDF didn’t give me a vacation,” he explained. “When Gaza started to lighten up, the war moved up north to Lebanon. There was supposed to be a ceasefire, but now there is work in Syria. I just got sent back down to Gaza.

“They sent me home, thinking they were done with me, but called me right back. A few times, I didn’t see my family for a couple of weeks, and sometimes, I got home on the weekends for Shabbat. If it had gotten to the point where I didn’t see my family for three weeks or more, I wouldn’t have been able to stay in the army for this long. It would have taken too great a toll on my family.”

“I’ve seen it with other men in different types of units,” Shimon explained. “Infantry or armored units engaged in active combat are usually away from home all the time they are called up. I’ve seen that take a big toll on people.”

“There was one officer in Gaza who made the news when he kept his troops inside for three months straight. He got a lot of flak for that. But even so, they were young kids without families. It is much harder on married reservists.”

These long periods of service take their toll, Shimon noted.

“One close friend got divorced. Another guy with the same job as me took off and went to Thailand for a few months just because he needed to get away. His wife was having a breakdown and his family was falling apart. They were in an area that was getting rockets. He told the officers, and they let him go.”

“Another buddy in my unit told me his wife wants to move in with her sister in the United States. Another guy told me that his eight-year-old kid started wetting the bed again.”

“Another guy, his wife gave birth, and he knew she couldn’t handle all the small kids by herself along with the newborn. So he arranged to stay until the week before and then go home for a few months. Sometimes, there is no way around it, and the IDF knows that. But he had to come back to Lebanon.”

Shimon explained he considered requesting release from the IDF, reasoning that he had gone above and beyond the call of duty.

“I thought I had to get out for my wife’s sake and my kids’ sake,” Shimon said. “But my wife told me to keep serving. She told me I had to because the hostages are still in Gaza. Everything’s on the wife.”

The war is also taking a heavy toll on jobs and careers.

“I saw a lot of my friends who had their businesses affected, and some even had to shutter them. It is illegal to fire someone for not working because of reserve duty, but their boss made it clear to them they didn’t want them to go. It’s not mean, but it is impossible to sustain a business if your employees are not there.”

Shimon insists morale is still high as the reason for the war is undeniable.

“We need all the soldiers we can get, but no one is forced to do anything. If someone does not want to serve, they find themselves out of the unit quickly. There were actually very few like that.”

“Some guys came in all enthusiastic but, for various reasons, got assigned to basic guard duty or worse and got discouraged.”

Like many Israelis, Shimon is angry with the Haredim, the ultra-Orthodox, many of whom manage to get exemptions for army service.

“They think they are serving the country by being religious, but what they are doing is continuing with their lives as usual while guys like me have to leave our families and jobs to fight a war for them, risking our lives and getting nothing in return.”

“Many guys in uniform feel like the government betrayed us, playing politics rather than fighting the war. This makes the trauma from combat even worse. A lot of the guys who were in the army will be leaving Israel. They are burnt out and maybe even disgusted. They just spent a year watching their friends die, almost dying themselves, seeing crazy things, and for what?”

Shimon insisted he would not consider leaving Israel.

“Zionism is very deep in my family. It goes back several generations and is deeply connected to our religious beliefs.”

“I don’t believe in sticking my head in the ground,” Shimon explained. “If you’re in America, the terrorist attacks will still happen in Israel and the U.S. So it doesn’t matter if you’re here or in America. You’re either numb to it, or you’re ignoring it. For me, it’s not a choice.”