Minorities voted for Trump, and he owes them prosperous policy
Jack Kemp (1935-2009) always felt Republicans should do well with minorities and immigrants. He saw the Republicans as the party of opportunity, and felt his message of growth should and would resonate with voters who frequently had less, but wanted more. Not long before he died, and as Barack Obama was on the rise as the Democratic candidate for president, Kemp reached out to him.
Kemp wanted to make Obama’s acquaintance in hopes of offering his point of view about the genius of capital gains tax cuts: investment drives growth, so lower the penalty on investment. Obama did very well with black voters despite not embracing Kemp’s vision, but it spoke well of Kemp that he made the effort.
Roughly fifteen years later Donald Trump succeeded with black and Mexican voters in ways Republicans hadn’t in the past. The breakthrough probably would have thrilled Kemp. Finally. What an opportunity, and one that brings to mind personal anecdote that maybe pairs with growing support for Trump from unlikely blocs.
The day after the presidential election I wore a red sweater. It wasn’t a political statement of any kind. But the reaction to it was interesting. Upon entering a bakery owned by a Mexican immigrant, she noticed my sweater and pointed to a long-sleeve red shirt under her apron. She had a big smile on her face. It was a Trump thing.
My favorite restaurant (McLean Family Restaurant) is run by Greek immigrants. I drive twenty+ minutes to eat there several times per week. The waiters and waitresses are largely Greek immigrants, and they’re big fans of Trump. There was a celebratory mood among the servers at MFR in the days after the election.
In Washington, D.C. the black manager of Nando’s (a South African chicken restaurant) noticed my American-flag belt as I walked in a week after the election. She viewed the belt as a political statement in the way the baker did the sweater, and started talking optimistically about Trump to me.
As those who read me know well, my views on Trump go hot and cold depending on the policy. At the same time, I’ll admit to finding support among unlikely Republican voters for Trump something that’s appealing. It’s the Jack Kemp thing, the Steve Forbes thing, and the Ronald Reagan thing. I always felt their message was most directed not at the rich, but to those who aspired to being rich. The aspirational who weren’t necessarily white.
Which brings up one last anecdote: on the way down to a watching party for the Inauguration, Haseen Awel picked up my wife, my brother-in-law and me. Haseen came to the U.S. from Ethiopia in 1991, and after collectivist policies had reduced the former breadbasket of Africa to starvation.
Haseen has made it in the United States. He indicated to the three of us that since reaching the U.S. he’s always had a day job, plus he has worked as a cabdriver and now Uber-driver at night. He’s worked seven-day weeks in order to afford a house in the D.C. area, and so that his kids could get an education. One graduated from Duke, one from James Madison, and one from Virginia Commonwealth. They’re grown and providing for themselves. What a story!
Awel indicated that people like him aren’t typically Republicans, but for reduced economic opportunity in recent years. Readers can disagree as to the causes of economic uncertainty (my view is that the lockdowns sapped economic vitality far more than economists and their aggregates felt and indicated), but what’s harder to disagree with is that seeming economic weakness helped shift minority support to Trump. Haseen sees the U.S. as the greatest, most generous country on earth, and sees prosperity as the driver of what’s so great and generous. Which explains his belief in Trump while not agreeing with him about everything.
And it signals the importance of Trump’s presidency to the Republican Party. Republicans have long felt they should win the support of minority voters, but never have in any substantial way. Trump succeeded where Republicans never have, which is why it’s important that he succeed for reasons well beyond him.
If he does, as in if he embraces the basics to economic growth (light and falling taxation/regulation, freedom to trade that belies his protectionist rhetoric, and stable money), he’ll preside over prosperity. If so, it’s no reach to say that economic growth under a Republican president will change the voting patterns of a growing bloc of voters not normally associated with the GOP. Haseen Awel and others like him yearn for prosperity much as growth-focused Republicans do. Kemp would surely tell them to not pass up on a real opportunity.