Election Day is about 2 months away and ready or not, the first ballots could go out within days
It might feel like the presidential election is still a long way off. It’s not.
Election Day on Nov. 5 is only about two months away, and major dates, events and political developments will make it fly by. The stretch between now and then will go as fast as summer break from school in most parts of the country.
The first mail ballots are scheduled to be sent to voters this Friday. The first presidential debate is set for Sept. 10. Former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, is scheduled to be sentenced in his New York hush money case on Sept. 18. And early in-person voting will start as soon as Sept. 20 in some states.
Here’s a look at why the calendar will move quickly, with the Democratic and Republican conventions over and Labor Day signaling the traditional start of campaign season.
Who’s ready to vote?
The first batch of ballots typically sent out are ones to military and overseas voters. Under federal law, that must happen at least 45 days before an election — which this year is Sept. 21.
Some states start earlier.
Election offices in North Carolina are scheduled to begin sending mail ballots to all voters who request them on Friday. That could be delayed because presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has sued to have his name removed from the state’s ballot after he suspended his campaign.
In Pennsylvania, counties are allowed to begin processing mail ballot applications up to 50 days before the election, or Sept. 16 this year, unless a county decides to do it earlier. But counties do not yet have a certified ballot from the state because there are three third-party ballot-access challenges pending in the state Supreme Court. After certification, counties will need time to print and test the ballot, leading some county officials to caution that they might not go out until late September or early October. Kennedy has successfully withdrawn from the ballot in Pennsylvania.
Voter registration deadlines vary by state, with most falling between eight and 30 days before the election, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. The deadline is Oct. 7 in Georgia, one of this year’s most prominent presidential battlegrounds.
Nearly all states offer some version of in-person voting, though the rules and dates vary considerably.
The gloves come off
Whether, where and under what rules the Democratic and Republican presidential and vice presidential nominees will debate has been a point of contention for weeks. But for now, two match-ups are on the calendar.
Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris have accepted an invitation from ABC News to debate Sept. 10 in Philadelphia.
Harris’ pick for vice president, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, and Trump’s, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, have agreed to an Oct. 1 debate hosted by CBS News in New York City.
Harris has forecast a possible second debate with Trump, but her proposal appeared to be contingent on the GOP nominee’s participation in the Sept. 10 debate. Trump has proposed three presidential debates with different television networks.
Vance has challenged Walz to another vice presidential debate on Sept. 18, although it’s not been set.
A possible criminal sentence for Trump
Trump is scheduled to be sentenced Sept. 18 in his hush money criminal case, though his lawyers have asked the judge to delay the proceeding until after Election Day. A decision is expected early this month.
In a letter to Judge Juan M. Merchan, Trump’s lawyers suggested that holding the sentencing as scheduled, about seven weeks before Election Day, would amount to election interference. On Sept. 16, Merchan is expected to rule on Trump’s request to overturn the guilty verdict and dismiss the case because of the U.S. Supreme Court’s July presidential immunity ruling.
Trump was convicted in May on 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal a $130,000 hush money payment to porn actor Stormy Daniels just before the 2016 presidential election. Falsifying business records is punishable by up to four years in prison. Other potential sentences include probation, a fine or a conditional discharge that would require Trump to stay out of trouble to avoid additional punishment.
Next steps in Trump’s other New York cases
On Friday, the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals will hear arguments in Trump’s appeal of a jury’s verdict last year ordering him to pay $5 million to writer E. Jean Carroll after it found him liable for sexually assaulting and defaming her. Trump also is appealing a verdict in a second trial in January in which a jury found him liable on additional defamation claims and ordered him to pay Carroll $83.3 million. Trump’s lawyers have until Sept. 13 to file a brief in that appeal.
On Sept. 26, a New York appeals court will hear oral arguments in Trump’s challenge of a nearly $500 million civil fraud judgment in state Attorney General Letitia James’ lawsuit against him. The court typically rules about a month after arguments, meaning a decision could come before the November election. Trump’s lawyers argue that a judge’s Feb. 16 finding that the former president lied for years about his wealth as he built his real estate empire was “erroneous” and “egregious.” State lawyers responded in court papers this week that there’s “overwhelming evidence” to support the verdict.
What about Trump’s election and document cases?
A state case in Georgia that charged Trump and 18 others in a wide-ranging scheme to overturn his 2020 loss in the state is stalled with no chance of going to trial before the election.
Federal prosecutors have brought two criminal cases against Trump, but one was dismissed by a judge last month and the other is likely to be reshaped by the recent U.S. Supreme Court opinion that conferred broad immunity on former presidents for official acts they take in office.
Special counsel Jack Smith has appealed the dismissal by U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon of an indictment charging Trump with hoarding classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida and obstructing the FBI’s efforts to get them back. But even if a federal appeals court reinstates the case and reverses the judge’s ruling that Smith’s appointment was unconstitutional, there’s no chance of a trial taking place this year.
In light of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling, a federal judge in Washington is now tasked with deciding which allegations in a separate case charging Trump with plotting to overturn the 2020 election can remain part of the prosecution and which ones must be discarded. Deciding which acts are official and which are not is likely to be an arduous process.
Fights over voting and the election
Before the first ballots are even cast, both camps are gearing up to fight over voting.
Battles over election rules have become a staple of American democracy, but they’re expected to reach new heights this year. Trump installed his own leadership team at the Republican National Committee, including a director of election integrity who helped him try to overturn Biden’s win in 2020. The RNC has filed a blizzard of lawsuits challenging voting rules and promises that more are on the way.
Democrats also are mobilizing and assembling a robust legal team. Among other things, they are objecting to GOP efforts to remove some inactive voters or noncitizens from voter rolls, arguing that legal voters will get swept up in the purges.
Republicans have particularly escalated their rhetoric over the specter of noncitizens voting, even though repeated investigations have shown it almost never happens. Some also are pushing to give local election boards the ability to refuse to certify election results.
All indications are these efforts are laying the groundwork for Trump to again claim the election was stolen from him if he loses and to try to overturn the will of the voters. But there’s no way to know if that will happen until the ballots are cast.
___
Associated Press writers Kate Brumback and Christina A. Cassidy in Atlanta, Meg Kinnard in Chicago, Nicholas Riccardi in Denver, Michael R. Sisak in New York and Eric Tucker in Washington contributed to this report, as did AP election researcher Ryan Dubicki in New York.