What to know about Hurricane Milton as it barrels toward Florida’s Gulf Coast
Tropical storm-force winds lashed Florida as powerful Hurricane Milton moved closer to the state’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday. There was no time left for people to evacuate ahead of the storm, officials said, and the odds of survival were bleak for holdouts determined to stay.
Milton has fluctuated in intensity and became a Category 3 hurricane in the afternoon. Millions were ordered to evacuate and bridges closed as the storm was expected to bring massive surges, damaging winds and flooding rains.
The storm is threatening the Tampa Bay area, which is home to more than 3.3 million people and has managed to evade a direct hit from a major hurricane for over 100 years.
Milton, which has already brought rain, gusting winds and tornadoes, is threatening communities already battered by deadly Hurricane Helene, which made landfall just two weeks ago to the north in the Big Bend region.
National Hurricane Center forecasters warned that Milton, which has grown in size, is “expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane” when it reaches the coast.
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When will Milton make landfall, and how strong will it be?
Milton is expected to make landfall late Wednesday.
As of Wednesday evening, the storm was about 35 miles (50 kilometers) west-southwest of Sarasota, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 kph). Sarasota is about 50 miles (80 kilometers) south of Tampa.
The storm is expected to retain hurricane strength as it crosses central Florida on Thursday toward the Atlantic Ocean.
President Joe Biden, who postponed an overseas trip so he could remain at the White House to monitor Milton, said it “could be one of the worst storms in 100 years to hit Florida.”
Why are scientists saying this is an odd storm season?
Milton is just the latest system in a storm season that scientists say is the weirdest they’ve ever seen.
Beryl became the earliest storm on record to reach Category 5 status, but there was record quiet from Aug. 20 — the traditional start of peak hurricane season — to Sept. 23, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.
Then five hurricanes popped up between Sept. 26 and Oct. 6, which is more than double the old record of two. On Sunday and Monday, there were three hurricanes at the same time, which had never happened before, Klotzback said.
In just 46 1/2 hours, Milton went from forming as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds to a top-of-the-charts Category 5 hurricane.
Some might wonder if it’s possible to control extreme weather events. But scientists say hurricanes are too powerful for that, and climate change is providing more fuel than ever for storms like Helene and Milton.
What makes Milton so unusual?
Warm water fueled amazingly rapid intensification that took Milton from a minimal hurricane to a massive Category 5 in less than 10 hours.
Milton also grew so potent because it managed to avoid high-level cross winds that often decapitate storms, especially in autumn. As Milton neared Florida, it hit those winds and dropped in strength.
How bad is the damage expected to be?
Florida’s Gulf Coast is especially vulnerable to storm surge.
Helene came ashore about 180 miles (290 kilometers) north of Tampa and still caused drowning deaths in the Tampa area due to storm surges that were about 5 to 8 feet (1.5 to 2.5 meters) above normal tide levels.
With Milton, forecasters warn of a possible 6- to 9-foot (2- to 3-meter) surge in Tampa Bay and up to 13 feet (4 meters) just south of there, from Anna Maria Island to Boca Grande.
Officials in St. Petersburg, located on Tampa Bay, said residents should prepare for extended blackouts and a possible shutdown of the sewage system. Mayor Ken Welch said the recovery will not be quick: “We have a long road ahead of us.”
Milton is forecast to dump as much as 18 inches (46 centimeters) of rain as it crosses the state, according to the hurricane center.
What if I have travel plans to Florida?
Airports including Tampa International and nearby St. Pete-Clearwater International have shut down.
And the tourism machine in Orlando, about 84 miles (135 kilometers) inland from Tampa, was grinding to a halt. That city’s airport — the nation’s seventh busiest and Florida’s most trafficked — also ceased operations. And at least three major theme parks — Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando and SeaWorld — will close.
What’s the connection between hurricanes and the Waffle House?
For some residents of storm-prone Southeastern states, the best indicator of a hurricane’s severity can be found at the local Waffle House.
If the Georgia-based restaurant chain stays open in town, neighbors are reassured that the coming storm is unlikely to cause devastation. A closed location of the diner has come to indicate impending disaster.
What might sound like silly logic has become one of the most reliable ways for Southerners and even federal officials to gauge a storm’s severity and identify communities most in need of immediate aid. The Waffle House Index was thought up two decades ago by a federal emergency management official.