Analysis: The Iran-Israel clash deepens; no longer a proxy war
The past four days have redefined the threat landscape in the Middle East. What began as a precision Israeli air campaign to degrade Iran’s nuclear infrastructure has morphed into an open and brutal exchange of firepower — with Tehran striking back harder and more directly than ever before.
On June 15, Iran launched two major missile barrages targeting heavily populated cities in Israel. These were not symbolic strikes. They were designed to inflict casualties, damage infrastructure and send a political message: Iran has the capability and will to retaliate — publicly, directly and repeatedly.
Civilian deaths, including children in Tel Aviv, Tamra and Rehovot, mark a chilling shift in Tehran’s posture. This is no longer a back channel or proxy war; it’s a state-on-state conflict being waged in broad daylight.
Israel’s Operation Rising Lion was a success in military terms — it crippled key nuclear sites at Natanz and Fordow, killed high-value Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and exposed deep vulnerabilities in Iran’s defense systems.
But the price is steep; Iran’s immediate and sustained counterattacks reveal a nation not only prepared for war but seemingly structured around it. Iran’s use of high-precision weapons, such as the Haj Qasem ballistic missile, signals its intent to escalate with both accuracy and psychological effect.
For Israel, air superiority and advanced defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, David’s Sling and the Arrow, have limited the impact of these barrages.
But the damage is no longer abstract: Apartment blocks are crumbling, citizens are dying and the deterrence narrative is under strain.
Continued Israeli strikes on Iranian command nodes suggest Tel Aviv is preparing for a prolonged campaign — but it’s now fighting on two fronts: Militarily and diplomatically.
The U.S. is walking a strategic tightrope. It has not fired a shot but is clearly supporting Israel with intelligence and defensive coordination.
However, Washington’s hesitancy to intervene directly may be creating a vacuum that Iran — and its allies — are willing to exploit. Meanwhile, Russia and China have seized the diplomatic high ground, condemning Israeli strikes and calling for an end to what they frame as Western-backed aggression.
The broader concern now is trajectory. With civilian casualties mounting, pressure is building — on Israel to protect its population at all costs, on Iran to avenge high-level losses, and on the international community to prevent a regional war.
Hezbollah, the Houthis and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq are watching closely. So are the Gulf States, most of whom have stayed silent but are deeply unsettled.
This is no longer a skirmish over centrifuges or red lines. This is a new kind of Middle East conflict — symmetric, direct and public. And unless a serious diplomatic intervention materializes within days, the region is heading into a sustained, multifront war with global consequences.