Breaking down the 6 best bets ahead of the 2020 U.S. Open

The 2020 U.S. Open — which got moved from the middle of June to September — is here this week at Winged Foot.

And that means, as usual, we get to make our picks.

The last time we did this with the PGA Championship, we nailed the winner (Collin Morikawa) and some contenders (Tony Finau and Bryson DeChambeau). We’ll see if we can do it again.

As a reminder: We pick one player with short odds (up to 20/1), medium odds (21/1 to 99/1) and we dive deep to take one longshot (100/1 and above) who could come out of relative obscurity to win it all.

All odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Short odds

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Thomas (+1400)

Dustin Johnson is the betting favorite and rightfully so. He’s been playing incredible golf – but his dominance has also provided some value on Thomas at +1400, who also is playing great at the right time. Thomas just delivered a T-2 at the Tour Championship, and he won the WGC event in Memphis in August. He’s not an above-average putter, but he’s great off the tee and on the approach, will be just as important at a punishing and long U.S. Open course. – Nick Schwartz

Xander Schauffele (+1400)

He’s coming in fresh off a second-place finish at the Tour Championship. He’s missed one cut all year. But the biggest thing that stands out? His last three U.S. Open finishes were: T5, T6, T3. That means he won’t be intimidated by the usually-tough course with its crazy rough. — Charles Curtis

Medium odds

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Hideki Matsuyama (+3300)

I’ve been burned far too many times picking Matsuyama at majors, but this may finally be the year. He had a very strong FedEx Cup run, highlighted by a T3 at a very tough Olympia Fields in the closest thing to a U.S. Open preview we’ve gotten in recent months. I think one of the big guns wins this U.S. Open, but Matsuyama has been playing well enough to hang around and give himself a chance to be in the mix. – NS

Tony Finau (+3300)

Funny you should say that, Nick. I can’t stop picking Finau to win a major (for the record, Nick picked him to win the PGA), but I really believe it’s going to happen soon. I know he missed the cut at the 2019 Open, but he was 5th the year before. In his last nine starts at majors, he’s finished outside the top 10 just three times, so it’s worth putting money on the fact that he’ll win one. And maybe his long-distance game helps big time this week. — CC

Long odds

EPA-EFE/JUSTIN LANE

Martin Kaymer (+10000)

Joaquin Niemann is another strong option here, but Kaymer is a former major champion, has far more experience with brutal U.S. Open conditions, and has been playing brilliantly in Europe, where he’s reeled off a T3 and solo 2nd in his last two starts.  – NS

Brendon Todd (+10000)

He finished 17th at the PGA, eighth in the recent BMW Championship and 11th earlier this year at the Travelers. So there’s buzz. Add in the fact that he’s a really good putter and one of the most accurate drivers on the PGA Tour in a tournament where the rough will be a HUGE factor as usual, and I’m intrigued. — CC