UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley staff picks and predictions

19.09.2020 03:00

Bloody Elbow

Photo by Steve Marcus/Getty Images

Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for UFC VEGAS 11.

The Bloody Elbow team has made its picks for UFC VEGAS 11, and unsurprisingly most of us are going with Colby Covington to beat Tyron Woodley in the main event. It’s a little more divided for the co-main between Donald Cerrone and Niko Price, which is just going to be guaranteed excitement.

Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley

Anton Tabuena: If Woodley hasn’t declined as much as people fear, stylewise this really should be his fight to lose. Covington doesn’t hit hard, doesn’t box as well, is prone to being countered while rushing in, and likely can’t take him down easily. That’s just a recipe for disaster against the Woodley of old. Woodley is already 38, and he hasn’t exactly looked great in his last two contests. I’m not ready to dismiss him as washed just yet though, as it’s pretty hard to judge based on his last bout against Burns. He looked to be trying to open up and be more aggressive but got cracked and badly hurt really early, and (understandably) seemed to have defaulted to his old habits of riding the fence after. If I’m wrong and Woodley’s reflexes really have significantly slowed, and he’s just too hesitant or gun shy again, Covington can slowly wear him down and make things ugly with his high pace and grit. Both scenarios seem very possible, but I think Woodley has more than enough left in the tank to capitalize on the big stylistic advantages here. Tyron Woodley by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: It’d be cool if Woodley won but I’m not banking on it. I think the book is finally out that all these years Woodley has been pretty fortunate to avoid high workrate pressure fighters who have at least baseline competent striking offense and defense. Covington doesn’t hit as hard as Burns or Usman but he keeps a steady pace and Woodley’s offensive skill set is just way too limited for him to have anything other than a puncher’s chance. Colby Covington by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: There’s one big hope here for people rooting for Woodley to not lose 15 straight rounds, and it’s that Covington is not particularly defensively sound, and that he is a southpaw. Given the open lane for his right hand, Woodley has been more aggressive and willing to let his hands go (Till, Lawler). Other than that, this looks like a recipe for a mauling as Woodley gets backed into the cage and overwhelmed with volume. Colby Covington by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: I wish I did, but I just don’t see the clear path for winning this fight for Tyron Woodley. Even if he comes out swinging, even if he lands the big shots, even if he takes Covington down, he’ll still have to deal with Covington’s pace and pressure for 5 rounds. Unless, of course, he can knock him out. But that’s not so much a path to victory as it is a puncher’s chance. One that will likely diminish every round. It’s still a good chance, Covington comes forward with lots of offense and not a lot of defense. But, to date, he’s been incredibly tough to put away or to dissuade. Colby Covington by decision.

Staff picking Covington: Stephie, Phil, Zane, Mookie
Staff picking Woodley: Anton

Donald Cerrone vs. Niko Price

Anton Tabuena: Much like the main event, if Cerrone still has a lot left in the tank, he should win this. Unlike Woodley’s tough decision losses though, Cerrone has actually suffered three bad (T)KO’s (and four losses overall) in a little over a year. This makes me way less confident about my pick, but (with no disrespect to Price) this should also be Cerrone’s least dangerous opponent in years. Donald Cerrone by decision.

Mookie Alexander: There’s really every reason to believe Cerrone just blows out Price. He’s the much more technical fighter and Cowboy hasn’t really lost to someone on Price’s level (meaning a non-contender or non-former champ)... ever? I mean this extends to include contenders within WEC, too. But Cerrone is also just taking a ton of punishment and that won’t erase itself. At some point he’s going to start losing to dudes he’d normally chew up and spit out for fun, and Price might be the guy. Price is no one’s idea of a defensive wizard but he’s so offensively potent that he can get his ass kicked and KO you just about anywhere the fight takes place. My read on this is that while Cerrone should win, he’ll end up losing a fight he’s winning because Niko Price will uncork one stupidly hard shot to put him away. Niko Price by TKO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Niko Price hurts everyone he fights and has approximate reach parity with Cerrone. Cerrone is old, and double old in fight years. That being said, Price delivers the exact kind of unstructured violence that Cerrone has typically feasted on (Medeiros, Perry, Hernandez, Oliveiras). If the danger is in the first, then Cerrone has actually been the more consistent R1 finishing threat, and I actually think there’s a solid chance that Cowboy changes levels and submits Price in the early going. Donald Cerrone by submission, round 1.

Zane Simon: This fight exists somewhere in the continuum of Cerrone’s win over Yancy Medeiros and his loss to Darren Till. And I’d be lying if I said I knew exactly where on that spectrum it falls. Medeiros caught Cerrone clean with some early shots in their fight too, but was just too unstructured (and not powerful enough) to turn that into a finish. Price is just about as wild, but way more powerful. I just get the feeling that if Cerrone is going to get hit and keep the exchange going early, Niko Price is gonna win before Cerrone can adjust. If Cerrone does adjust though, he’ll probably take Price totally apart. Niko Price via KO, round 1.

Staff picking Cerrone: Stephie, Anton, Phil
Staff picking Price: Mookie, Zane

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Anton Tabuena: There’s still too many unknowns with Chimaev’s overall game to accurately predict things or hype him as the next big thing, but against entry level UFC opponents, his wrestling and top game has looked great so far. Meerschaert is a decent step up in competition, so we should get more answers here, but I’m not fully ready to jump in this train just yet. That being said, maybe this still ends with Khamzat Chimaev by Darce choke.

Mookie Alexander: Meerschaert has a chance because he’s a far more capable grappler than the two previous opponents Chimaev beat, but it’s also real possible this just looks like the Thiago Santos fight on the ground for Meerschaert. Khamzat Chimaev by smesh, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Chimaev is probably going to get deaded on his wild entries one of these days, but Meerschaert is slow and not much of a puncher. The ground game seems like it will feed Chimaev’s control game as Meerschaert jumps on opportunities as soon as they offer themselves. Khamzat Chimaev by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: I’m thinking this could look a whole lot like the Heinisch fight. Could all be over with just a well timed overhand into a level change. Honestly, Meerschaert is just way too willing to cede early ground to opponents, whether it’s hard strikes standing, or top control on the ground. His ethos is mostly built around the idea that given a long enough amount of time to work, he’ll be able to rally. Chimaev doesn’t really seem like the kind of fighter one rallies back against. Khamzat Chimaev via TKO, round 1.

Staff picking Chimaev: Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Zane
Staff picking Meerschaert:

Johnny Walker vs. Ryan Spann

Anton Tabuena: I don’t know why Walker didn’t seem to decide on a proper coach after traveling the world, but I think he should still be good enough to get back on the horse here. Johnny Walker by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: This fight is going to be stupid and I mean that in the nicest way possible. Johnny Walker by TKO, round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: Spann has a more complete and less coherent game. He can wrestle and strike and clinch but rarely seems to know which to do at any given moment. Fighting Walker requires coherence and consistency, so I assume Spann’s going to leave a big moment of hesitation out there which gets him smoked. Johnny Walker by TKO, round 1.

Zane Simon: Spann’s tendency to walk himself into the clinch and shoot takedowns could work a whole lot better against Walker than it did Alvey, frankly. But, I just don’t think he’s confident enough in that game. The hesitancy he shows moving between distance and the clinch is just perfect to get countered really hard by a big freakish athlete with tons of power. And, even if he can get this fight to the ground, I don’t see a lot of signs that Spann has the kind of persistent top control that even Nikita Krylov brings. Sooner or later Spann is gonna make a big mistake, and it’ll probably end the fight. Johnny Walker via KO, round 1.

Staff picking Walker: Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Zane
Staff picking Spann:

Mackenzie Dern vs. Randa Markos

Anton Tabuena: Dern’s striking hasn’t looked great at all, but starting to work with Jason Parillo should help a lot. Will the few pandemic weeks (months?) with Parillo be enough to shore the biggest holes? I guess we’ll see, but this is a good matchup for Dern. Mackenzie Dern by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Markos said she wouldn’t try to grapple with Dern, which is smart but then you realize she’s a light-hitting, low-volume striker and likely at a physical disadvantage. That means this fight hitting the ground is inevitable. Maybe she’ll avoid a submission because only Rose Namajunas has tapped her between pro MMA and TUF fights, but no one would be shocked if Dern tapped her. Mackenzie Dern by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Another close and weirdly formless fight, like Walker and Spann. Markos is more experienced and probably a “better” striker, but Dern just seems more fearless at enforcing her approach. Given that Markos tends to hit the mat most of the time in her fights I guess I’ll pick Dern to replicate the Casey / Namajunas losses. Mackenzie Dern by submission, round 2.

Zane Simon: Markos has a very simple path to victory here. Just push Dern off, every time she gets into the pocket. Not even psychologically, with pressure or counters or anything like that. Literally just push her. And then fill the space between clinch charges with 1-2s and low kicks. But, Markos almost always ends up getting taken down and put in a bad spot at least once per fight. And she so often gets stuck in gameplans that don’t do her any real favors. Dern is a structureless striker, but she’s bold and persistent. Sooner or later I think she’ll just create the kind of chaos where Markos loses focus and she finds the submission. Mackenzie Dern by submission.

Staff picking Dern: Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Zane
Staff picking Markos:

Kevin Holland vs. Darren Stewart

Mookie Alexander: I was hoping for a far more humorous breakdown for this Kevin Holland fight from Phil. What a disappointment. Kevin Holland by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Holland should be able to keep Stewart on the end of his reach, and has proven to be extremely mean in the clinch, where Stewart does his best work. Both are equally inconsistent, but Holland should be insulated from Stewart’s power by just being immortally durable. Kevin Holland by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: I expect this will be an extremely frustrating fight for Stewart. Holland not only has reach, but fights a much longer, rangier fight when he wants. He’s the more technical wrestler, and the better grappler. He also seems to have a bit of a sparring mentality that lets opponents get a lot more work done than they should. But, I just don’t think Stewart has enough of an edge anywhere that he can catch Holland off guard for letting him hang around. Kevin Holland by decision.

Staff picking Holland: Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Zane
Staff picking Stewart: