Rams-Chargers Week 17 Betting Preview

The battle for Los Angeles puts the Chargers at near-touchdown total favorites against the Rams in Week 17.

The Chargers clinched a playoff berth last week, giving them their first postseason appearance since 2018. Despite their success, Los Angeles has been outscored by 11 points this year. Based on the current standings in the AFC, the Chargers would face the Bengals in the first round of the playoffs.

Despite being eliminated from the playoffs and losing their starting quarterback (Matthew Stafford) and the stud wideout (Cooper Kupp) for the season, the Rams showed some grit by going 2-1 over the past three weeks. Cam Akers (147 combined yards with three touchdowns and two catches) comes off his best game of the season, while Baker Mayfield has revived his career in the Rams’ offense (571/4 over three contests – 69.0% completion rate). On the downside, Aaron Donald won’t return from his high ankle sprain.

Austin Ekeler comes into Week 17 with a questionable tag due to a knee issue. The Chargers could rest some of their starters over the final two games, giving them a chance to pick their opponent in the first round of the postseason. Los Angeles continues to have significant risk defending the run (394/2,108/16 – 5.4 yards per carry). Their defense played great over the past three weeks (34 points allowed) while finding their pass rush vs. Tennessee (four sacks) and Indianapolis (seven sacks). Even more impressive has been their success on defense without Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson.

The Chargers haven’t scored more than 27 points since Week 5 vs. the Browns. Justin Herbert only has 21 touchdowns (36 in 2020 and 41 in 2021), with regression in his yards per pass attempt (6.7) and production in the run game (51/146). The return of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen helped their wide receiver stats over the past three games (23/261/1, 18/217/0, and 17/196/0) despite only one passing touchdown by Herbert.

Before last week, the Rams’ defense lost the time of possession battle in seven consecutive games. They gave up three touchdowns in four matchups over this span, plus a ton of field goals (19). Even with their top pass rusher injured, Los Angeles has 13 sacks over the previous four games.

Rams vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Game Info

Moneyline: Rams (+225) | Chargers (-275)
Spread: LAR +6.5 (-110) | LAC -6.5 (-110)
Total: 42.5 – Over: (-118) | Under: (+100)
Game Info: January 1st, 2023 | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS

Rams Straight-Up Record: 5-10
Rams Against The Spread Record: 6-8-1

Chargers Straight-Up Record: 9-6
Chargers Against The Spread Record: 9-5-1

Bet Rams-Chargers on SI Sportsbook

Odds and Betting Insights

The casual fan will get excited about the rise of Cam Akers vs. the porous Chargers’ run defense, but life in the NFL is always challenging. Below-par teams scoring over 50 points rarely repeat. The Rams came into last week scoring 20 points or fewer in 11 of their 15 games while gaining only 3.7 yards per rush. I expect the Chargers to play from the lead while controlling the clock. They should have no problem winning this game by more than a touchdown.

• The game total has landed on the under in the last four Chargers’ games. Only one of their games has had an over/under lower than 45 (Week 3 vs. Jacksonville – 42.5).
• The Chargers are 3-3-1 at home vs. the spread (2-0 as an underdog).
• The Rams are 3-5-1 against the spread over their last nine games but 0-3-1 on the road. During the year, they covered only once away from home (1-4-1).
• The game total went 6-2 in favor of the under to start the season for the Rams (3-4 over the last seven games). The under has a 1-5 record on the road for the Rams.