Midwest Region Breakdown: Can Purdue Finally Break Through?

March Madness is upon us, and the release of Sunday’s 2024 men’s NCAA tournament field of 68 means it’s time to start analyzing seedings, matchups and potential Cinderellas.

Who will make it out of Detroit and punch a ticket to Phoenix? Here’s our Midwest Region preview and prediction.

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State of the No. 1 seed: Purdue Boilermakers

The Boilermakers lug more baggage into the bracket than anyone, coming off the mortifying first-round loss to the No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson Knights last year and previous flameouts against Saint Peter’s Peacocks (2022), North Texas Mean Green (’21) and Little Rock Trojans (’16). That said, the Boilers are good enough to go to the Final Four for the first time since 1980—if they can get out of their own heads. Center Zach Edey is the best player in the tournament, and the supporting cast is experienced and deep. Purdue’s guards need to prove they can match up defensively with an athletic backcourt, and the TCU Horned Frogs could provide that challenge as early as the second round. But, with the Boilers’ history, it’s foolish to look ahead even one round.

Related: March Madness: Forty Things to Watch in the 2024 NCAA Men’s Tournament

Toughest draw: No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks

They’ve been injured, they’ve played poorly of late and they draw a tough mid-major in the No. 13 Samford Bulldogs (29–5) in the first round. Samford will press Kansas for 40 minutes, which could stress the Jayhawks’ dubious depth. If Kansas does survive that matchup, it could face the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the second round—and Gonzaga has advanced to at least the Sweet 16 in eight straight tourneys. That’s the longest active streak in the sport.

Related: East Region Breakdown: Auburn Could Stand in UConn’s Way

Team that could bust your bracket: No. 13 Samford Bulldogs

Samford is an excellent shooting team with a problematic style of play. The Bulldogs shoot 39.3% from three-point range and 55.5% from two, both of which are in the top 20 nationally. If they get hot and create turnovers with their defensive pressure, look out for a potential Cinderella run.

Player to watch: Zach Edey, Purdue

Edey is both the best player and the biggest lightning rod, given the difficulties in officiating him fairly. He leads the nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes at 9.7, with opponents convinced he gets away with everything and Purdue fans convinced he gets hacked much more often than what’s called. He’s got some interesting big men potentially in his path in this region, starting with Utah State Aggies double-double man Great Osobor in the second round then either Gonzaga’s Graham Ike or Kansas’s Hunter Dickinson in the third round and potentially Creighton Bluejays 7-footer Ryan Kalkbrenner in the regional final.

Most intriguing matchup: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Texas Longhorns

A potential second-round game between No. 2 Tennessee and No. 7 Texas would pit Vols coach Rick Barnes against his old school, which he took to the 2003 Final Four. It would also be a battle of Texas’s highly efficient offense (No. 19 nationally, according to KenPom) against Tennessee’s barbed-wire defense (No. 3 nationally).

Regional finalists: Purdue and Creighton

Pick to win the region: Creighton Bluejays

It’s time for Creighton to crash its first Final Four. And to extend the pain of Purdue (zero Final Fours since 1980) and Tennessee (zero Final Fours ever) in the process.