Paul Skenes surges into the NL Cy Young race with 11-strikeout masterpiece in Milwaukee
Paul Skenes is officially chasing history in Pittsburgh
Paul Skenes was already the odds on favorite to win National League Rookie of the Year before he took the mound on Thursday in Milwaukee.
The Pirates’ All-Star walked to the bump with -350 odds at BetMGM, far ahead of his biggest threat, Jackson Merrill, who was sitting at +320. After Skenes’ performance against the Brewers — a dazzling seven innings of no-hit ball with 11 strikeouts — a Rookie of the Year nod feels like a foregone conclusion.
Skenes’ odds jumped to -600, but in the process he became a legitimate threat to win the NL Cy Young, too.
We’re officially in rare territory with the LSU product, who was +2500 to win the Cy Young before Thursday and surged to +1100 when his day ended after the seventh inning.
Only Chris Sale (+125) and Zach Wheeler (+140) hold better odds than Skenes and it seems like that gap will only continue to narrow as long as the rookie stays healthy.
Has a pitcher ever won Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in the same season?
In fact it’s only happened one other time.
Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Fernando Valenzuela claimed both awards as a 20-year-old in 1981, winning the Cy Young by three points over Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan.
In the Rookie of the Year race, it was a complete runaway for Valenzuela over Tim Raines, Hubie Brooks and Bruce Berenyi.
They didn’t call it “Fernandomania” for nothing.
How does Skenes compare to Valenzuela’s historic rookie season?
It’s always going to be hard to compare players of different eras. Valenzuela pitched in a time when bullpens weren’t heavily relied upon and still led the NL in complete games (11) and innings pitched (192.1) while leading the majors in shutouts (8) and strikeouts (180).
Skenes certainly won’t come close to Valenzuela in the first three categories, but he’ll at least have an outside shot at the strikeout mark after getting his season total up to 89 on Thursday.
Here’s how the two stack up through their first 11 starts as a rookie:
- Valenzuela: 90.2 IP, 19 ER, 1.89 ERA, 79 K, 27 BB, 3 HR
- Skenes: 66.1 IP, 14 ER, 1.90 ERA, 89 K, 13 BB, 7 HR
Paul Skenes' final first-half numbers, after his seven-inning, no-hit, 11-strikeout gem today:
66.1 innings
48 hits
13 walks
89 strikeouts
7 home runs
1.90 ERA
Opponent slash: .202/.251/.319
Average fastball velocity: 99.1 mphThe best pitcher in MLB since his debut May 11.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 11, 2024
Paul Skenes’ 14 runs allowed are the fewest of the 11 pitchers with at least 80 strikeouts in their 1st 11 career app (since at least 1901)
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 11, 2024
We are running out of superlatives to bestow on Pirates rookie, but if this keeps up, just feel free to call him Cy or Roy. Either should fit him perfectly.