2024 Home Run Derby odds, predictions: Pete Alonso favored in latest pursuit of elusive 3rd title

The 2024 Home Run Derby will have a third different winner in as many years Monday, as 2023 champion Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not in the eight-man field to defend his crown.

That doesn’t mean there won’t potentially be a familiar champion in the end.

Pete Alonso, who won in 2019 and 2021, is back for his fifth straight derby and seeking a third win, which would tie Ken Griffey Jr. for the most ever. Alonso is the +310 favorite at BetMGM, but he won’t have it easy.

Four players in the field have as many or more home runs than Alonso’s 19 through the first half of the season, including Gunnar Henderson (28), Marcell Ozuna (26), José Ramírez (23) and Teoscar Hernández (19). That doesn’t include Adolis García, who is the home-town favorite at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, and only other returning player from last year’s derby.

Henderson and Alonso are the public favorites and biggest liabilities at BetMGM, with Henderson being the pick on 21% of tickets for 17.8% of the handle and Alonso the pick on 19.2% of tickets for 29.2% of the handle. Bobby Witt Jr. is a surprising third in most ticketed and most handle. And Ramírez, who participated in the 2022 derby, is fourth in each category and the third-biggest liability because of his long odds.

So which player is the best bet?

One important thing to keep in mind are rule changes to this year’s format, which will eliminate first-round head-to-head matchups. Instead, each contestant will hit as many homers as possible in three minutes or 40 pitches — whichever comes first — and the top four will advance to a semifinal round seeded by home run totals from the first round.

Knowing this, it’s probably a smart play to roll with whoever’s been hitting the ball best in the weeks leading up to the Derby, which probably comes down to Witt, Ozuna and Henderson. Witt has the best average in July and Henderson is slugging the best, but Ozuna provides a nice medium between the two, which makes him my favorite bet to win at +375.

For a secondary pick, I like Henderson as a lefty. Globe Life Field only slightly favors left-handed batters but every little advantage helps.

Prince’s Pick: Marcell Ozuna +375