UFC 304 predictions
Leon Edwards and Tom Aspinall could become legends with title defenses in their home country. Or Belal Muhammad and Curtis Blaydes could make it a night to forget for the English.
UFC 304’s top two fights are rife with storylines, beginning with Edwards going for his third defense of his welterweight belt. Edwards shocked the world when he beat Kamaru Usman with a last-minute head kick to become champion, and then kept the vibes going when he beat Usman again to retain. The less said about a win over a lethargic Colby Covington the better, but Edwards is ready to put another stamp on his legacy if he can close the door on his Muhammad rivalry.
As for Muhammad, an upset win on Saturday would be sweet vindication after being passed over for years despite an ever-growing unbeaten streak. Muhammad has never been UFC’s No. 1 choice to lead a division. He’s now 25 minutes away from taking destiny into his own hands.
What the main event and co-main event have in common is that they’re both rematches of bouts that had unsatisfying conclusions. Muhammad vs. Edwards 1 ended in a no contest when an eye poke left Muhammad unable to continue, while Blaydes can technically claim that he has one up on Aspinall. Technically.
Aspinall suffered a grisly knee injury 15 seconds into his first fight with Blaydes in 2022. The injury sidelined Aspinall for a year, but he rebounded with back-to-back knockouts of Marcin Tybura and then Sergei Pavlovich to earn a share of the heavyweight crown. Aspinall is currently No. 1 at heavyweight in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, a lofty position that could be lost in a flash of Blaydes takes advantage of the opportunity of a lifetime.
In other main card action, lightweight veteran King Green puts Paddy Pimblett to the test, Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues meet in an intriguing middleweight clash of styles, and top featherweight contender Arnold Allen looks to stop a skid when he faces Giga Chikadze.
What: UFC 304
Where: Co-op Live in Manchester, England
When: Saturday, July 27. The five-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a four-fight preliminary card at 8 p.m. ET, all on ESPN2 and ESPN+. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Leon Edwards (1, P4P-3) vs. Belal Muhammad (4)
First off, let me say that I think this will be a better fight than most fans are expecting. Yes, Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad have a lengthy history of uneventful decisions, but all it takes is the right style matchup and some bad blood to make magic happen. The elements are in place for these two to entertain.
Both are so well-rounded, it’s difficult to predict the exact ebb and flow of this matchup. We can all agree that Edwards has the edge in striking, while Muhammad has to find success with his grappling if he is to have a chance of pulling off this upset. It might take only one or two impactful moments in each round to win them and if Muhammad can score the occasional takedown and sprinkle in ground-and-pound, then that’s his path to victory. Otherwise, he could be dealing with 25 minutes of Edwards poking away at him (sorry, poor choice of words).
A walkover by Edwards would genuinely shock me. Muhammad is tough and adaptable, and even if he’s a step behind Edwards for the majority of the bout, he’s going to throw enough different looks at Edwards to force the champ to adapt in his own right. This will be a tactical battle in the best possible way.
To no one’s surprise, this fight goes the distance, with Edwards winning on the cards after five tense rounds.
Pick: Edwards
Tom Aspinall (1, P4P-12) vs. Curtis Blaydes (4)
This one ain’t going to the judges.
If you’re feeling frisky and going for a long shot on a Blaydes decision, I understand the inclination. Blaydes is a grinding wrestler when he needs to be and he’s defused many a knockout artist with his forceful grappling. His safest route to gold might be to ground Aspinall and avoid taking risks.
That said, people tend to overlook what a strong grappler Aspinall is. He doesn’t always have to show it as his natural power has ended many fights before there’s a chance for the martial arts to get mixed, but he’s no sitting duck if Blaydes puts him on his back. Aspinall can threaten with submissions and has more than enough strength and technique to get the fight back to the feet. Blaydes’ wrestling will have to be the best it’s ever been if his plan is to simply smother Aspinall.
Blaydes has also had poor luck against the best punchers in the division, a category I’m comfortable slotting Aspinall into. The big Brit doesn’t just hit hard, he’s patient and accurate, and he can eat a shot too. Even taking into account the unpredictable nature of heavyweight, there’s slim chance that an extended striking battle goes Blaydes’ way.
Aspinall by second-round knockout.
Pick: Aspinall
Paddy Pimblett vs. King Green
The buck stops here for Paddy Pimblett.
I’ve been one of the most vocal advocates about Pimblett being better than people give him credit for, but stylistically he couldn’t have asked for a tougher veteran test. Pimblett is not a better striker than King Green and he doesn’t have the one-shot KO power to just catch Green. I imagine “Baddy” backers are expecting Pimblett to grab on to Green and hoss him around, but that’s something few fighters outside of Islam Makhachev have been able to do.
And I hope I don’t have to tell you that Pimblett isn’t quite on Makhachev’s level.
Maybe I’m super wrong here, and Pimblett’s youth makes the difference in a division that typically sees the young consume the old, but Green hasn’t lost much of a step in the latter stages of his career. He’s not like anyone Pimblett has faced before, and I don’t know if Pimblett has the tools to solve this particular problem.
Overall, it should be a great night for the English contingent. Pimblett will have to go back to the drawing board after this one though.
Pick: Green
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Fine, this isn’t Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape, but as far as fights to place on the main card, you could do a lot worse than this middleweight duel.
Christian Leroy Duncan has star potential and a fight in his native England should bring out the best in him. He’s a creative striker that won’t rush into exchanges, even with the aggressive Gregory Rodrigues bearing down on him. Duncan should explore the studio space here, making Rodrigues chase him until he finds an opening for one of his highlight-reel kicks.
Will we finally see Rodrigues rely more heavily on his highly vaunted Brazilian jiu-jitsu? Maybe. Do I asked this exact question when predicting Rodrigues fights every time? Almost definitely yes. Just use the joooo-jeeeetzooo, “Robocop!”
Sigh. This one stays on the feet, with Duncan clipping Rodrigues in Round 3 for a late knockout.
Pick: Duncan
Arnold Allen (7) vs. Giga Chikadze (13)
Arnold Allen on a losing streak? Classic wounded animal situation.
Suffering back-to-back losses to Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev is nothing to be ashamed of, the latter fight an absolute thriller that Arnold could have pulled out if a couple of sequences went differently. As it stands, he’s probably learned more from those setbacks than if he’d cruised to a pair of decision wins over lesser competition.
That’s not a knock on the opponents Giga Chikadze has fought, but it has to be noted that Arnold is more battle-tested. He also has five years on Chikadze, who’s been involved in combat sports since 2008. Chikadze still has the skills to be a contender, but he could be trending downward and that makes him vulnerable to Allen’s high-paced offense.
Bolstered by the rowdy English fans, Allen comes out hot and doesn’t let up en route to a bounce-back decision win.
Pick: Allen
Preliminaries
Nathaniel Wood def. Daniel Pineda
Molly McCann def. Bruna Brasil
Caolan Loughran def. Jake Hadley
Modestas Bukauskas def. Marcin Prachnio
Oban Elliott def. Preston Parsons
Muhammad Mokaev (T9) def. Manel Kape (T9)
Sam Patterson def. Kiefer Crosbie