UFC Mailbag: Umar Nurmagomedov has arrived, is bantamweight gold soon to follow?

UFC Abu Dhabi is in the books and we have a new bantamweight contender. Umar Nurmagomedov won a unanimous decision over Cory Sandhagen in a fiercely competitive bout, and now the undefeated Dagestani appears to be the frontrunner to face the winner of the upcoming Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili title fight.

But that wasn’t the only thing that happened this past weekend, so let’s dive into the biggest talking points following the latest UFC event.

Umar Nurmagomedov

“How do you think Umar matches up stylistically against both Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili?”

With his win on Saturday, Umar will most likely move to No. 2 in the UFC bantamweight rankings and almost assuredly has clinched the next bantamweight title shot. But how will he do against either Sean O’Malley or Merab Dvalishvili? Pretty well, I suspect.

Umar has been the darling of MMA media and hardcore fans for quite a while, aided by the insistence of his team that he’s actually the best one among them. When guys like Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev are saying that, you should stand up and take notice. And now everyone has. I personally believe he will be the next great bantamweight and that his ceiling is higher than anyone else in the weight class. But they still have to fight the fights first.

And coming off of Saturday, I’m much more interested in these potential fights. Heading into UFC Abu Dhabi, I said Cory Sandhagen is the most difficult matchup in the weight class for Umar and I stand by it. But the thing about matchups is they’re constantly changing with new information. And Sandhagen gave the world a whole lot of new information about Umar.

For Dvalishvili, I’m not sure Saturday’s fight changed things all that much for me. Merab’s greatest strength is his cardio, but I have a very hard time believing he will have much success wrestling against Umar. Umar has spent his life training with Khabib and Islam and the rest of that squad of killers. He the superior striker, especially with what we saw Saturday, and the better tactical fighter. I think Dvalishvili would be very competitive but never in control of the bout, and ultimately lose a decision nine times out of 10.

For O’Malley, it’s a different story. O’Malley is an underrated grappler but no one should seriously believe he’ll compete on the floor against Umar. That being said, he doesn’t have to. Sandhagen just gave a blueprint in how to minimize Nurmagomedov’s control positions, something O’Malley can probably recreate to some success. And on the feet, O’Malley is a more dangerous one-shot striker than Sandhagen. Cory’s biggest issue in the fight was he never gave Umar something to fear, while Umar’s wrestling had him on the defensive. O’Malley won’t have that issue, which gives him a chance to win. Don’t get me wrong, I’d still pick Umar, but as things stand, I’d give O’Malley a three out of 10 chance.

Title reign

“Does Umar become a long-reigning version of Khabib? Don’t want to write O’Malley off too early but I doubt he beats Merab much less Umar.”

I wouldn’t be so sure about Merab beating O’Malley. Once upon a time, I would have felt very confident in that, but now I’m a lot less certain. O’Malley is leaps and bounds ahead of Merab on the feet and he can defensively wrestle and grapple. Yes, Merab is going to jump on his legs immediately and continue to do so for the entire fight, but when you have such a linear game plan, it’s a bit easier to prepare for. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if Merab just charges headlong into punches from O’Malley all night long and gets chewed up.

But I digress. Can Umar be a long-reigning version of Khabib? Possibly. Will he? Doubtful.

First off, Umar is a substantially different fighter than Khabib. It’s one of the things I find the most impressive about what Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov and Javier Mendez have done. Khabib, Islam, Umar, and Usman Nurmagomedov are all exceptional fighters — and they’re all very different.

Khabib was the platonic ideal of athleticism, power, and ground-and-pound. Islam is functionally the exact inverse of Khabib: A guy who can do that, but his game is built as a reflection of Khabib’s, because he spent a lifetime training against him. Umar is different still, some sort of amalgamation of the two, with Islam’s striking game and a trickier grappling game. And Usman is the most different, far more focused on his striking, with grappling as an accent, not the focus. So if Umar does string together a long reign atop the division, it won’t be like Khabib.

But I’m not even sure he will put together a dominant title run. I’m as high on Umar as just about anyone, but as I try to remind everyone as often as possible: The most difficult thing to do in this sport is be a long-reigning champion.

Only 14 fighters in history have defended a belt five or more times. Only six have gotten up to seven. It’s unreasonable. Never having an off day while fighting the best opposition in the world who are giving the best effort they possibly can, year over year, while giving away more information about yourself each time out. And if you stick around long enough, you then have to face fighters who have literally been preparing for you their entire careers. It’s an impossible task.

Umar may be exceptional. He certainly seems it. But the sport moves so quickly. Three years ago Umar wasn’t even in the UFC. Who knows what next wunderkind is right around the corner? Particularly in a weight class as good and as deep as bantamweight. If you set the over/under on title defenses at 3.5, I’d take the over, but I would in no way feel confident about it.

Do you have eyeballs?

“Another boring card. The main event was a joke. Neither one had a scratch on them.”

I saw this sentiment out there a little bit and wanted to briefly address it.

Everyone is entitles to their own opinion. You like what you like and that’s perfectly OK. But there are such things as subjective facts. If I say “Shaq is tall” and you say “No he’s not, that’s just your opinion,” technically you are correct, but practically, you are not a serious person.

Along those lines, if you think that main event was “a joke,” then you are not a serious person.

Was it Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway? Certainly not. Do you have to enjoy it? Of course not! You can even call it boring, though that probably says more about you than the fight. But by no reasonable definition was it a joke.

MMA involves grappling. It’s actually a central part of it. And sometimes the fighters are well-schooled enough that the grappling doesn’t result in a finish. But there was a lot of cool stuff going on in there. It wasn’t lay-and-pray by any stretch.

So if that fight was something that disgusted you, I encourage you to spend your time elsewhere. Kickboxing and Muay Thai both don’t allow grappling and they are very fun to watch, as is boxing. Or any number of other things that aren’t combat sports related. It’s a big world out there. Find the things that make you happy.

Deiveson Figueiredo

“Is Figgy being unfairly overlooked for a bantamweight title shot? He’s a former multiple-time UFC champion, has a reputation for exciting fights, has won three straight in his new division, + still does not appear to be the front runner for the next title shot.”

Also saw a little of this out there and I think it must be at least in some way tied to the previous question. Because Umar didn’t get a finish and the fight was so grappling heavy, perhaps people don’t think he deserves a title shot? I dunno, but that’s silly.

Deiveson Figueiredo delivered a terrific performance against Marlon Vera on Saturday, and one I didn’t expect. After “Chito” won the second round, I thought Figueiredo was cooked. But then he came out and put the pedal down for the final round and even dropped “Chito,” a first in UFC history. It was a great showing, worthy of admiration. And if he jumps Umar in line for a title shot, it would be insane.

Umar only has one meaningful win at bantamweight, but that win is simply much better than Figgy’s. Beating Rob Font is a good win, but beating Cody Garbrandt is... umm... sure, that’s a thing that happens. I have a lot of respect for “Chito” but “Chito” is not a top-five bantamweight. Umar has the only win over a top-five bantamweight, plus he’s undefeated. Umar deserves the right of first refusal.

Now, Figueiredo may end up getting a title shot anyway. The man has looked quite good up at bantamweight and being a former champion always gives you a bit of a bump. If the UFC has a timeline and Nurmagomedov can’t go for some reason, 100 percent, Figueiredo deserves to slot in. But I think the more likely outcome is Figueiredo faces Petr Yan next in a No. 1 contender fight, and there’s nothing wrong with that either.

Shara Magomedov

“Do you really see Shara beating a ranked MW? His skillset seems limited as does his cardio.”

In the co-main event, Shara Bullet picked up third UFC win, kicking the tar out of Michal Oleksiejczuk for three rounds. It was the best win and performance of his UFC career thus far (until he turfed it all by calling out Nick Diaz afterward), but do I think it portends big things for him? No, I do not.

What we’ve seen from Magomedov thus far has not overly impressed me. He’s a solid striker but he doesn’t seem to have a ton of power — more of a “damage through attrition” sort of guy — and his defensive wrestling and cardio remains a concern (though his cardio was better in this fight). Also, there’s the whole thing with him being blind in one eye and how that limits where he can fight, and also probably limits his abilities against the top fighters in the world.

But could he beat guys in the top 15? Sure. Styles make fights and Magomedov does have offensive tools. We don’t talk about it often, but getting into the top 15 of almost any weight class is as much about ability as it is Dana White privilege (in the good weight classes, you still have to be excellent, but middleweight ain’t that). Favorable booking can make mediocre fighters look better, at least for a time. Eventually it all comes out in the wash, but if you booked Magomedov against Jared Cannonier right now, it wouldn’t stun me if he won. Cannonier is 40 years old, slowing down, and would engage Magomedov in a striking battle. That’s a winnable fight. And Cannonier is in the UFC’s top five!

Ultimately though, nah. Magomedov is a guy that will have some fun fights and stick around because the UFC likes him and he’s surprisingly popular. Maybe he cracks the back end of the top 15 and hangs around there, but that’s about the max I see for Bullet.

Oversaturation

“We just reached the end of a 13-fight UFC card with nine decisions at UFC AbuDhabi. How many fights should a UFC event reasonably have? 10? Over? Under?”

Let’s start here: UFC Abu Dhabi was a decent event. Sure, the early prelims were a travesty and almost none of those fighters are “UFC quality,” but there were a few gems on the prelims and the main card was very good. That’s about all we can ask for these days. Would it have been better if fans only got the wheat instead of the chaff? I think so. But that’s not how it is.

The longer I work in MMA, the more I realize that card saturation and the decided drop off in UFC quality over the past 10 years is almost exclusively a media problem. The fans don’t care because most of them pick and choose what they watch anyway, or they only watch when they’ve got nothing else to do. It’s the media (and hardcores) who have to keep up with 42 events a year, each with 12+ fights, that really wish things were more quality over quantity. Having to pay attention to 500 fighters per year when only half of them are good wears on you. But that’s our cross to bear for getting to work a job as cool as this one.

In my ideal world, there would be 36 UFC events per year, each with 10 fights. That’s three events per month, with one off weekend each month, and you do a very simple breakdown: one pay-per-view, one road show, one APEX card. The schedule is clean and manageable, and the decrease in fights means the quality would rise. Only the best would be in the UFC, instead of a lot of mid. (It would also leave more room for other organizations to breathe, which would be better for the health of the sport overall, but that’s another thing entirely). If that’s not enough, you could sell me on doing a “summer season” where they do events every weekend for June, July, and August to up the total while still being reasonable.

Again, none of this will ever happen, but that’s my ideal UFC world.

Thanks for reading, and thank you for everyone who sent in tweets (Xs?)! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because you can send your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer my favorite ones! Doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane, just so long as they are good. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.