College Football Playoff: Our explanation of, and predictions for, the new playoff format
The expanded College Football Playoff is the most significant competitive change in the sport’s 155-year history.
There, we said it.
The move from four teams to 12 carries a greater impact than the switch from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team playoff a decade ago.
It will make more games relevant throughout the season, give more teams hope late in the season and generate more interest every hour of every day.
The only change of comparable magnitude came off the field — and in the courtroom.
In 1984, the Supreme Court ruled against the NCAA and gave schools control of their media rights, setting the stage for multiple waves of conference realignment and billion-dollar TV deals.
With CFP expansion comes a slew of changes to the selection procedure and competitive calendar.
Here’s an explanation of the process for 2024, along with our picks:
— Participants will be determined by the CFP selection committee’s rankings in early December, as has been the case for the past 10 years. But everything else is new.
The five highest-ranked conference champions earn automatic bids, with the seven highest-ranked non-champions receiving at-large berths.
(There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a single conference.)
— The four highest-ranked conference champions will become the top-four seeds in the playoff, even if they are not the four highest-ranked teams in the selection committee’s final rankings.
Our picks for the conference winners and seeds:
No. 1 Georgia (SEC)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten)
No. 3 Utah (Big 12)
No. 4 Florida State (ACC)
The highest-ranked team from the Group of Five also receives an automatic bid. In our view, that spot will be filled in this manner:
No. 12 Boise State (Mountain West)
— From there, the committee will move the seven highest-ranked teams into the at-large field.
Our picks:
No. 5 Texas (SEC)
No. 6 Oregon (Big Ten)
No. 7 Notre Dame (Independent)
No. 8 Mississippi (SEC)
No. 9 Alabama (SEC)
No. 10 Penn State (Big Ten)
No. 11 Clemson (ACC)
— The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games Dec. 20-21 on the home field of the higher seed, creating the following matchups:
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
No. 11 Clemson at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Notre Dame
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Mississippi
Rematches of regular-season games are possible, if not likely. The selection committee has not implemented protocols to prevent rematches.
— The winners of opening-round games advance to the quarterfinals (Dec. 31 and Jan. 1) and face the top four seeds at neutral sites, with geographic preference based on seed.
In our vision, those matchups are:
No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Georgia (Sugar Bowl)
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Ohio State (Rose Bowl)
No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Utah (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Florida State (Peach Bowl)
— The winners advance to the semifinals Jan. 9-10, with the Orange and Cotton Bowls hosting this season.
Our picks:
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 1 Georgia (Orange)
No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 2 Ohio State (Cotton)
— The national championship in Atlanta is scheduled for Monday, Jan. 20, a federal holiday (MLK Day) and one month after the first CFP game.
Our pick: Georgia 37, Ohio State 27
Last point, because college football is always more complicated than it needs to be:
The procedure described above is in place for just two seasons. The next edition of the CFP, starting in the fall of 2026, could look much different in size — it might have 14 or 16 teams — and in format.
Previously published content on the 2024 season
Pac-12 bowl projections
ACC projections
Big 12 projections
Big Ten projections
Mountain West projections
Five major trap games in 2024
My AP Top 25 ballot
Analyzing the Big 12 schedule
Your guide to CFP (and other) changes
*** Note: The Hotline will publish playoff projections weekly throughout the season.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
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