Drake Maye can absolutely start for the Patriots. But should he?
The New England Patriots got their man. After watching the Mac Jones (and, to a lesser extent, Bailey Zappe) experiments fail, they badly needed a quarterback to kick off the post-Bill Belichick era. They found one in Drake Maye, the North Carolina stud who slipped to the third pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Maye joined former and current Patriot Jacoby Brissett on the depth chart, giving New England a veteran mentor and potential high value replacement passer who could start the season. But despite a relatively slow start, it’s clear Maye brings more to the table than the journeyman with whom he’s competed for snaps.
He’s got plenty of issues to work out, certainly, but his athleticism and ability to create big gains downfield create a sense of optimism the Pats have lacked the last two seasons.
This touchdown was negated by (ANOTHER) penalty on Okorafor, but what. a. throw by Drake Maye pic.twitter.com/gPxLgkY0fT
— Ben Brown (@BenBrownPL) August 26, 2024
And that’s why New England may not start him to begin 2024.
The 2024 Patriots are just bad enough to irreparably damage Drake Maye
New England is in the midst of an arduous rebuild. The franchise has a handful of young building blocks, but lacks the playmakers or depth to truly contend this fall. Maye could change that, but not on his own.
Unfortunately, this preseason has hammered home the fact the blocking help he needs won’t be there.
.@thekjhenry wasted no time
#NEvsWAS NBC pic.twitter.com/55yfmeTGiW
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) August 26, 2024
That’s not Maye behind center, but it’s a solid encapsulation of the Patriots’ offensive line right now. Head coach Jerod Mayo has resorted to sliding Mike Onwenu from his best position (guard) to tackle to address the fact his other edge protectors — Chukwuma Okorafor (released by the Pittsburgh Steelers last year), Caedan Wallace (third round rookie) and Vederian Lowe (2022 sixth rounder traded from the Minnesota Vikings) — are each underwhelming in their own ways.
In three preseason games, New England’s quarterbacks were sacked or hit 18 times in 109 dropbacks, which fails to tell the story of an offensive line consistently gashed by opponents’ second- and third-string defenders. While Mayo hasn’t thrown anyone under the bus, you don’t express your eagerness for other teams’ cutdown day scraps if things are going well.
Jerod Mayo on @WEEI about the Patriots' offensive line and having the third claim on the waiver wire this week: "We have an opportunity to improve our team through the waiver wire, and we're in a very unique situation right now where we're third on the waiver wire, and there'll…
— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) August 26, 2024
Promising quarterbacks have been derailed by constant pressure in their rookie years. This reverse diamond process turned guys like David Carr (an NFL record 76 sacks as a rookie) and Tim Couch (56 sacks as a rookie) into coal despite lofty draft statuses. Their teams made a single playoff appearance (a Cleveland Browns Wild Card loss) between them in the five years after taking a passer first overall.
Need a more recent example? Justin Fields’ career 12.4 percent sack rate is partially his fault thanks to a penchant for scrambling into bad situations, but it’s also a function of what was a bad offensive line his first two seasons. Now he’s set to back up a broken Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh. Before Blake Bortles was a The Good Place punchline he was a third overall pick who led the league in sacks taken his first two seasons as a pro. The learning curve is hard enough without having to focus on footwork or processing routes whilst 300 pound men are relentlessly bearing down on you.
But Maye could spin this hay into gold if he can stay upright
The counter to this argument is that Maye, footwork issues aside, has made progress working through pressure. Against Washington, he found room to step up in the pocket and either make sound throws downfield or escape and use his above-average speed to create extra yardage.
Some very impressive plays by Drake Maye on that drive.
– 17-yard scramble on third-and-14
– Cross-body completion to Polk for 29 yards
– 16-yard completion to Douglas on third-and-8 pic.twitter.com/UHSLSAZmvV— Zack Cox (@zm_cox) August 26, 2024
It’s only the preseason, but he’s been able to elevate a young receiving corps in stretches — albeit against backup defenses. The Patriots will rely heavily on wideouts like Demario Douglas and Ja’Lynn Polk this season, especially with veterans like Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry hurt early. That’s not ideal — this is a team that could really, really use an established veteran to to lift its young quarterback a la Stefon Diggs with the Buffalo Bills or DeAndre Hopkins with the Arizona Cardinals — but if you squint hard enough you can see how it works.
Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has also made it a point to bring his rookie quarterback along slowly. You can see the progression through the preseason, as Maye was given a litany of short throws early before being given the green light to take more risks and step into bigger throws (and runs) as the exhibition season wore on.
Drake Maye on 3rd down this preseason pic.twitter.com/J4jT9CTXGI
— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) August 26, 2024
This is Mayo’s conundrum. Maye’s development has been steady. His ability to fit throws into a bucket downfield or scramble for clutch yardage is a trait decidedly absent from the last three seasons of Patriots football. The potential of a franchise quarterback is there, even if it’s more theoretical than actual at the moment.
A steady stream of blitzes and sacks can destroy that theory. It could also create the game experience and relationship with his wideouts that engineer a turnaround in Foxborough faster than anyone could have expected. With the preseason in the rear view, it appears Mayo is still deciding but possibly leaning toward his rookie gunslinger.
.@dougkyed asked Jerod Mayo about starting a rookie QB too early (including behind a leaky OL).
"I think every situation is unique. I don’t want to fall into this narrative fallacy, because you have seen rookie quarterbacks go out there and perform at a high level," Mayo said.
— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) August 26, 2024
Fortunately for Mayo, he’s a first year head coach who is highly regarded by the organization for which he once played. He’ll have the team’s support even though any first year struggles. But no decision will loom larger in his nascent coaching career than when Maye takes the field.
Get it right, and the Patriots’ rebuild drops into gear. Get it wrong and, well… we talked about those late-90s Browns and Texans teams, right?