NFL straight-up picks, Week 10: The Steelers? Coming off a bye? In this economy?

Week 9 was a fairly chalky return to normalcy in the NFL. The New England Patriots lost. The Detroit Lions continued down their path to the Super Bowl. The Chicago Bears found a way to devastate their fans.

The second half of the 2024 regular season won’t be as predictable. Fortunately, Week 10’s slate doesn’t look too intimidating on paper. Does that mean we’re gonna crush this week’s straight-up picks, or will it merely serve as further proof I’m an idiot.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph and Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 10 picks:

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let’s break down three games based on what I do and don’t like.

Easiest game to pick: Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) over the Tennessee Titans

Why I like this pick:

The difference between Will Levis and Mason Rudolph isn’t a skill issue at quarterback but a battle between a career backup and human meme who are similarly disappointing. The Titans nearly found a way to lose to the Patriots at home. Now they get the league’s top defense and a red hot Justin Herbert on the road.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Chargers don’t have an especially efficient ground game and run defense is arguably Tennessee’s biggest strength (neck and neck with acquiring, then wasting, veteran wideout talent). Los Angeles’s offense not showing up was a problem in all three of its losses (35 total points between them) and makes Jim Harbaugh’s team just a liiiiiitttttle bit untrustworthy.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 7-2 (.778)

Hardest favorite to back: Chicago Bears (-5.5) over the New England Patriots

Why I like this pick:

The Bears defense can grind down Drake Maye and his undermanned blocking/wideout combination. The Patriots’ offense remains limited. Maye completed just one of six passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfield last week against a decent defense. Now he gets the one that ranks first in the NFL when it comes to expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback. Chicago is badly in need of a win as the goodwill of a 4-2 start has rapidly dissolved.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Bears are rapidly disassembling around head coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Their gameplan is so basic even Jerod Mayo will be able to figure it out. Caleb Williams played two bottom-10 defenses the last two weeks and completed 49 percent of his passes.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 5-4 (.556)

Upset pick of the week: Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over the Washington Commanders

There are a few underdogs I like, but don’t feel strongly enough about to officially pick. The Cincinnati Bengals are approaching must-win status and equipped to win, but they’re also 1-5 in Baltimore the last six years and… we’ve all seen how Lamar Jackson is playing, right? I like the Jacksonville Jaguars at home, despite how 2024 is unfolding, but I cannot logically back the NFL’s worst defense with a banged-up Trevor Lawrence. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are home underdogs against a San Francisco 49ers team that’s coming off a bye, sure, but also 4-4 and a bit of a mess.

Ultimately, I leaned back and went with the most reliable option of the bunch; rolling with Mike Tomlin.

The Commanders continue to roll, even if their quality wins are lacking. Jayden Daniels has made a statement all season but few would be as big as dismantling the Steelers’ defense. Putting my faith in Wilson, as good as he’s been in a small sample size, feels foolish.

Last week: 0-1 (I gotta stop picking the Bears, you guys
2024 to date: 2-7 (.222)