NFL spread picks, Week 17: Christmas Day specials, Saturday madness and more
We have reached the point in the season where the NFL tries to prove there is no such thing as too much pro football.
Not only are we getting a doubleheader of Christmas Day action on Netflix, followed by our typical Thursday Night Football showcase. There is also three games on Saturday, another nine games on Sunday and Monday Night Football to cap it all off.
Between the teams playing on short rest, the overall awkward schedules and some complete mismatches on paper (Jets-Bills!?), Week 17 is sure to be the most chaotic of the season.
Which of course makes picking every game against the spread a fool’s errand. But who are we here at For The Win if not the ultimate fools?
Best of luck to those who tail (or fade). Just make sure to do so responsibly!
| Name | Last Week | YTD |
| Christian D’Andrea | 9-6-1 | 131-104-4 |
| Blake Schuster | 8-7-1 | 130-105-4 |
| Charles Curtis | 7-8-1 | 123-112-4 |
| Robert Zeglinski | 7-8-1 | 122-113-4 |
| Prince Grimes | 6-9-1 | 120-115-4 |
| Cory Woodroof | 8-7-1 | 120-115-4 |
All odds via BetMGM
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (Christmas Day)
Opening Line: Chiefs -6
Blake Schuster: Steelers +2.5
Yeah, I’ll continue being the sucker who refuses to go against Mike Tomlin as an underdog.
Prince Grimes: Chiefs -2.5
The Chiefs offense is getting healthy at the right time.
Charles Curtis: Chiefs -2.5
Short week for the Chiefs, but I think they can handle this game on the road.
Cory Woodroof: Chiefs -2.5
This team just keeps finding ways to win. You want to doubt KC?
Robert Zeglinski: Chiefs -2.5
The Steelers and Chiefs are both on a short week, but Kansas City deserves more of the benefit of the doubt. The sheen is coming off Russell Wilson’s teams after two straight convincing losses.
Christian D’Andrea: Steelers +2.5
The Steelers need a response after losing two straight. Returning home where they’re 5-1 should help.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (Christmas Day)
Opening Line: Ravens -1.5
Blake Schuster: Ravens -4
What does this line get up to by kickoff, Ravens -8? Ravens -10? Either would be fair.
Prince Grimes: Ravens -4
The Ravens spanked Houston in last year’s playoffs, and they’ll probably spank them again on Christmas.
Charles Curtis: Ravens -4
Feels kind of large but I’ll stick with Baltimore here with a chance to take the division lead.
Cory Woodroof: Ravens -4
Houston losing Tank Dell stinks. Baltimore should win this.
Robert Zeglinski: Ravens -4
Baltimore’s defense has quietly been carrying its own weight lately while the Texans have lost yet another important offensive playmaker. This one might be a laugher in the Ravens’ favor after the first several sequences.
Christian D’Andrea: Ravens -4
The Texans are a mess and 1-4 against teams currently in the playoff picture.
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (Thursday)
Opening Line: Bears -3.5
Blake Schuster: Seahawks -3.5
Even Bears players can’t fault fans for tuning this team out. That’s how bad it is right now.
Prince Grimes: Seahawks -3.5
Seattle clinging to a little bit of playoff hope should be enough to get them to cover this number.
Charles Curtis: Seahawks -3.5
I don’t love this spread so maybe I should lean points with the Seahawks on the road? Sigh.
Cory Woodroof: Seahawks -3.5
Seattle is a playoff contender for a reason.
Robert Zeglinski: Seahawks -3.5
Nothing about the Bears right now suggests they deserve any sort of faith. Caleb Williams literally hasn’t thrown a pick in nine weeks and they’ve still lost nine straight games, folks.
Christian D’Andrea: Seahawks -3.5
It’s a must win game for Seattle against a Bears defense that occasionally just dips out.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (Saturday)
Opening Line: Chargers -4
Blake Schuster: Chargers -5
Jim Harbaugh is furiously scouring the rule book for a new way to torment opponents.
Prince Grimes: Chargers -5
The Chargers should be well-rested and overly prepared after last playing on Thursday.
Charles Curtis: Patriots +5
They showed just enough life against the Bills to make me feel good about this pick.
Cory Woodroof: Chargers -5
I trust Jesse Minter to put Drake Maye through the ringer.
Robert Zeglinski: Chargers -5
The Chargers have two gimme games left to clinch a spot in the AFC postseason. I think they get it, comfortably, at the expense of the feisty Patriots.
Christian D’Andrea: Chargers -5
The Patriots only home win this season came over the Jets. New England keeps it close early, remembers there’s a top two draft pick at stake, then cruises home to a 10-point loss.
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (Saturday)
Opening Line: Bengals -8
Blake Schuster: Bengals -3
The Bengals defense is getting a little confidence at the right time.
Prince Grimes: Broncos +3
I’m fine with Cincy’s moneyline but I think you have to take the points with a Broncos team that’s been better all year and still has playoff seeding to settle.
Charles Curtis: Bengals -3
Cincy is fighting for a playoff spot, so I’ll back them at home.
Cory Woodroof: Bengals -3
The game being at home should help Cincy take care of business.
Robert Zeglinski: Bengals -3
Broncos fans, avert your eyes. All your team has to do is take care of business against either Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes to get into the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade. Oh, right. I can see why you might be down in the dumps.
Christian D’Andrea: Broncos +3
Every time I back the Bengals in a game I think is a “must win,” they lose. Now they’re in an *actual* must win game. I am not confident.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (Saturday)
Opening Line: Rams -6
Blake Schuster: Cardinals +6
Arizona players looked shellshocked after losing to the Panthers. I think that was a huge wake up call before a divisional game.
Prince Grimes: Rams -6
Neither team was particularly impressive last week, but at least the Rams are at home and still trying to clinch the division title.
Charles Curtis: Rams -6
The Cardinals look so meh, and LA continues to push for the postseason.
Cory Woodroof: Cardinals +6
Arizona won’t make the playoffs this season, but this spread is too big for a Rams team that plays opponents close.
Robert Zeglinski: Rams -6
The Rams are scorching hot and I’m not about to bet against them with the NFC West and the NFC’s No. 3 seed potentially hanging in the balance.
Christian D’Andrea: Rams -6
The Cardinals can start planning for 2025 knowing 2024 went slightly better than expected.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Opening Line: Bills -6
Blake Schuster: Bills -10
Do the Jets even want to win this one? Serious question.
Prince Grimes: Bills -10
Buffalo should tighten up a bit after the Pats scare.
Charles Curtis: Bills -10
I thought about taking the points here but no, the Bills are that good even in a divisional matchup.
Cory Woodroof: Bills -10
The Jets.
Robert Zeglinski: Bills -10
Aaron Rodgers suggested the Jets are learning who is bought in right now as they play stake-free football. Hmm, is he finally looking in the mirror? I don’t buy it.
Christian D’Andrea: Jets +10
Too many points for a divisional game, as the Patriots just proved.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Opening Line: Packers -2
Blake Schuster: Packers +1.5
Who am I to question the magical powers of Toyotathon?
Prince Grimes: Vikings -1.5
Minnesota won by two in Green Bay.
Charles Curtis: Vikings -1.5
Have to lean the home team in a fantastic matchup between two playoff squads.
Cory Woodroof: Packers +1.5
Minnesota is bound to lose one after such a fiery stretch.
Robert Zeglinski: Vikings -1.5
Home cooking prevails in a matchup between two of the NFC’s four best teams. Honestly, they’re probably like 2B and 2C, too.
Christian D’Andrea: Packers +1.5
Total gut pick. Just feels like a game the Packers win.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Opening Line: Saints -3
Blake Schuster: Raiders +2.5
I don’t know how Antonio Pierce has kept his guys fighting so hard, but I love to see it.
Prince Grimes: Saints -2.5
Only because I think the Saints might make the foolish decision to let Derek Carr come back to play his old team.
Charles Curtis: Saints -2.5
Ew.
Cory Woodroof: Saints -2.5
This game will be ugly, but Vegas winning two in a row doesn’t feel likely.
Robert Zeglinski: Saints -2.5
The only people watching this game will be Saints and Raiders fans actively refreshing Tankathon every 20 minutes on their phones.
Christian D’Andrea: Saints -2.5
The Raiders are still playing hard, but the Saints have more talent.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants
Opening Line: Colts -6
Blake Schuster: Colts -7.5
Don’t stop tanking now, Giants. The last thing you want to see is Cam Ward in a Jets jersey.
Prince Grimes: Colts -7.5
I don’t trust the Colts but I do trust this number: the Giants are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
Charles Curtis: Colts -7.5
The Giants have packed it in for 2025.
Cory Woodroof: Colts -7.5
Woof, Giants.
Robert Zeglinski: Colts -7.5
The Colts scored 38 points in a game where Anthony Richardson had 131 passing yards. The Giants are worse than the Titans. Do the math.
Christian D’Andrea: Colts -7.5
Just let them running clock their way through this, this doesn’t need to last three hours.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opening Line: Buccaneers -9
Blake Schuster: Buccaneers -8
I hate this line, but this is a get-right game after a meltdown in Dallas.
Prince Grimes: Panthers +8
The Panthers very nearly beat the Bucs earlier this month, and they’re feeling themselves even more after last week’s win over the Cards.
Charles Curtis: Panthers +8
This is kind of shocking. The Panthers have shown signs of life as of late and it’s a divisional game. I’ll take this huge spread.
Cory Woodroof: Panthers +8
The Bucs can win this, but why is the spread so wide? Carolina is playing solid football.
Robert Zeglinski: Panthers +8
The Buccaneers are fighting for their playoff lives but the suddenly competent Panthers aren’t going to just let them cruise to glory in a divisional game.
Christian D’Andrea: Panthers +8
Carolina just ruined one playoff hopeful’s dreams. (insert Goofy meme here)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening Line: Jaguars -2.5
Blake Schuster: Jaguars -1
But watch this end in a 12-12 tie with all field goals.
Prince Grimes: Titans +1
I find it funny this is an actual game we have to make a pick for.
Charles Curtis: Titans +1
[Shrugs.]
Cory Woodroof: Titans +1
These teams will split and then see each other in the top 10 of the 2025 NFL Draft.
Robert Zeglinski: Titans +1
Sure, whatever. Moving on. Oh, don’t act like you expected some kind of thoughtful insight here. The “oh no … ANYWAY” of NFL games this week.
Christian D’Andrea: Titans +1
Mason Rudolph vs. Mac Jones. If this is your local game I am IMPLORING you to spend time with family instead. Volunteer at the local humane society. Do ANYTHING other than watch this crime unto the football gods.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Opening Line: Browns -2
Blake Schuster: Dolphins -6.5
Congrats to whichever fan the Browns pull out of the crowd to play QB this week. What a cool experience.
Prince Grimes: Dolphins -6.5
Are the Browns really gonna throw DTR back out there again?
Charles Curtis: Dolphins -6.5
The Browns are bad.
Cory Woodroof: Dolphins -6.5
Cleveland isn’t winning this, and Miami has the talent to hit the mark.
Robert Zeglinski: Dolphins -6.5
I don’t trust Miami or Tua Tagovailoa in the Lake Erie cold, but oh my goodness, the Browns are so miserable.
Christian D’Andrea: Dolphins -6.5
We all saw Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week, correct?
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening Line: Eagles -11.5
Blake Schuster: Eagles -9.5
If you’re not going to have a healthy starting QB, you could do a lot worse than handing the ball off to Saquon 30 times.
Prince Grimes: Cowboys +9.5
With Jalen Hurts either out or playing fresh off a concussion, I’ll temper my expectations for the Eagles against a divisional rival still playing hard.
Charles Curtis: Cowboys +9.5
Obviously depends on whether Jalen Hurts is playing, but I still think Cowboys can find a way to cover.
Cory Woodroof: Cowboys +9.5
Philly probably wins, but Dallas is playing for Mike McCarthy. This will be close.
Robert Zeglinski: Eagles -9.5
This assumes Jalen Hurts plays. The Cowboys won’t catch the Eagles off guard like they have with everyone else lately.
Christian D’Andrea: Cowboys +9.5
Dallas is feisty and its defense came looking for a fight last week. This isn’t a team that looks like it’ll quit before a divisional showdown.
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (Sunday Night)
Opening Line: Commanders -4.5
Blake Schuster: Falcons +4
Look at what Atlanta can do with just a modicum of competent QB play.
Prince Grimes: Commanders -4
Michael Penix’s first road game being in Washington on Sunday night against a Commanders team looking to lock up its first playoff berth in a long time is going to be TOUGH. That stadium is going to be rocking.
Charles Curtis: Commanders -4
Michael Penix Jr. isn’t playing the Giants this week.
Cory Woodroof: Falcons +4
Believe in Penix.
Robert Zeglinski: Commanders -4
One week after regaining control of the NFC South, Michael Penix Jr. relinquishes it right back. Falcons football, baby.
Christian D’Andrea: Falcons +4
Penix will backslide and Jayden Daniels will probably have a great game, but the Washington defense is enough of a concern that Atlanta should be able to keep pace.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (Monday Night)
Opening Line: 49ers -4.5
Blake Schuster: Lions -3.5
Dan Campbell shows no mercy. Ever.
Prince Grimes: Lions -3.5
I’d lay more on the Lions tbh.
Charles Curtis: Lions -3.5
With the Niners out, this feels right.
Cory Woodroof: Lions -3.5
San Francisco’s season is over, but they won’t want to lose this. Expect a close game and a Detroit win.
Robert Zeglinski: Lions -3.5
Man, this game looked SO good on the preseason schedule. How the mighty red and gold have fallen.
Christian D’Andrea: Lions -3.5
The only intrigue here for the 49ers is whether or not Brock Purdy can finish the season strong before he enters contract negotiations.