MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 312 co-main event title fight between women’s strawweight champion Zhang Weili and Tatiana Suarez.

Zhang Weili UFC 312 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 25-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC
• Height: 5’4″ Age: 35 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 63″
• Last fight: Decision win over Yan Xiaonan (April 13, 2024)
• Camp: Bang Tao Muay Thai (Thailand)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ UFC strawweight champion
+ Wushu sanda background
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 11 knockout victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Explosive athlete
+ Wide variation of striking arsenal
^ From fundamentals to spinning attacks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Elbows, knees, trips, tosses
+ Improved wrestling and scrambling
+ Good transitional grappling from topside
+/- 1-0 against UFC-level southpaws

Tatiana Suarez UFC 312 preview

Staple info:

• 11-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC
• Height: 5’5″ Age: 34 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 66″
• Last fight: Submission win over Jessica Andrade (Aug. 5, 2023)
• Camp: Xtreme Couture MMA (Las Vegas)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 23 winner
+ Accoladed wrestling background
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 2 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving southpaw striking
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Knees, trips and tosses
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Good transitional grappler
+ Solid submission acumen
^ Works well from front-headlock

Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez point of interest: Looming threats

The co-main event in Australia features a strawweight title fight between two women who are looking to put a stamp on this division.

Annointned as the “Khabib of Women’s MMA,” Tatiana Suarez is a dominant force who has seemingly been destined to compete for gold in the UFC for quite some time now. And though Suariez’s striking has often been characterized as a means to an end on her come-up, the American standout has shown some measurable strides since her injury layoff of nearly four years.

Now working with coach Nate Pettit at Xtreme Couture MMA, Suarez is showing a lot of the standard tools that no southpaw should leave home without.

From teep to Thai kick change-ups from the rear to an underrated southpaw jab as her lead, Suarez possesses the basic building materials when it comes to managing distance and putting some proverbial money in the bank.

I wouldn’t mind seeing more check hooks and committed crosses from Suarez, but I’m not sure how much she’ll want to strike with an explosive force like Zhang Weili.

Though listed as a fighter who hails from a wushu sanda background, Zhang continues to add to her striking arsenal as her MMA career continues.

The current strawweight champion can come forward aggressively but ultimately prefers staying light on her feet, all while using feints to open up kicks and hooking combinations.

https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1887045162976862365

Like many sanda practitioners, Zhang is not shy in using spinning attacks when the positions call for it. Whether she’s corralling her opponents into turning sidekicks or countering outside-foot approaches with spinning backfists, the 35-year-old seems confident striking from multiple roles and ranges.

However, outside of a natural feel for distance and the occasional slip off the center, Zhang has shown that she is not beyond being stung by hard counters during her aggressive engagements – particularly when throwing kicks.

For that reason, I’ll be curious to see if the current champion shelves any of her kicks considering the looming takedown threats from the challenger.

Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez breakdown: Winning the wrestling

Since grappling is an undeniable crux to the challenger’s game, winning the wrestling will be paramount for both parties this Saturday.

An accoladed wrestler from her days in high school to the worldwide stage, Suarez is no stranger when it comes to closed-quarter combat. Although Suarez is more than capable of timing and taking shots in the open, she arguably does her best takedown work when chaining to and from clinching positions.

Once in clinch space, Suarez has excellent wrestling chains she goes to like second nature. Whether she’s snapping down opponents into front-headlock positions or snatching up single-legs on the fly, Suarez seldom seems at a loss for ideas in transition.

Still, Suarez will need to be careful to not hang out too long should she fail on any takedown attempts.

As we saw in her first title-winning effort in Shenzhen, China, Zhang possesses the power to demolish durable opposition with hard knees and elbows within close quarters.

The champion’s sanda background also comes in handy when hanging out in this space, showing the ability to hit slick trips and takedowns at the drop of a dime.

Since then, Zhang has upgraded her wrestling chops by working with talents like Henry Cejudo to the Hickman brothers (who operate out of Bang Tao Muay Thai). Now, it is not uncommon for Zhang to hit competent wrestling chains in open space, almost as if it were second nature.

Zhang has also shown some strides when it comes to her defensive instincts, demonstrating everything form strong sprawls to a more urgent scrambling game from bottom. Since shifting her training camp few years back, Zhang has also been working on her jiu-jitsu with Josh Hinger, who I’m sure has the champ well prepared for this weekend.

However, despite Zhang being an athletic back-taker to boot, “Magnum” will need to be mindful when it comes to the openings that her aggressive nature presents.

Not only is Suarez an accoladed wrestler, but the current title challenger is also a skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has clearly fallen in love with the submission game.

From lights-out front chokes to crushing RNCs, Suarez can make major hay off of opponents who use high underhook getups or turtle positions in an attempt to scramble back to their feet.

Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez odds

Despite the oddsmakers opening the champion as the favorite, public money has pushed this betting line to pick’em odds, listing Suarez -113 and Zhang -113 via FanDuel.

Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez prediction, pick

Regardless of how we got here, I can’t say that I disagree with the spread above considering how compelling this matchup is.

Saurez has been preordained to rule over this division according to some, while Zhang, on the other hand, has the athleticism and talent to make a case for pound-for-pound greatness should her trajectory stay the course.

I’m not sure if Round 1 will decide the fight, but it will certainly clock in as the most white-knuckle frame given each fighter’s history to come out hot. I give Zhang a slight edge in the early going, but believe that the Chinese champ could find herself in precarious positions the longer this fight goes.

Even though Zhang is the more proven party when it comes to five-round affairs, she has shown a propensity – in both victory and defeat – to slow down and drop rounds due to her inherent aggression.

Whereas Suarez, when healthy, appears to be one of those grapplers with an endless gas tank who gets better as the fight wears on. And whether I’m right about that assumption or not, Suarez has shown the hardwiring to counter everything from kicks to inside trips.

Not only are those crucial tools in the current champion’s repertoire, but Zhang has traditionally struggled with fighters who could counter her in these specific spots.

For that reason (along with Zhang’s inherent aggression), I will be picking the challenger this weekend. Unless Zhang can seriously hurt or finish her American counterpart early, then I suspect that Suarez will be able to force her win conditions by the middle rounds to become to new strawweight champion via submission.

Prediction: Suarez inside the distance

Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez start time, where to watch

As the co-main event, Weili and Suarez are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight airs via ESPN+ pay-per-view.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 312.