2025 Genesis Invitational: Expert picks, One-And-Done and a Tiger-less tournament

Let’s be honest here. The 2025 Genesis Invitational is going to have some weird — and downright depressing — vibes this week.

The tournament hosted by Tiger Woods is typically played at The Riviera Country Club in the Pacific Palisades, but devastation from the Los Angeles wildfires led to a relocation of the event at Torrey Pines outside San Diego.

It’ll be the second PGA Tour event Torrey Pines has hosted in the last month after the Farmers Insurance Open in late January. Woods was all set to make his season debut at the Genesis, but withdrew following the death of his mother.

All of that sets the stage for the Tour’s third signature event of the year. With a $20 million purse up for grabs, it’s going to feel bittersweet watching the best in the world battle it out against the backdrop of so much heartache.

Let’s try to make sense of it all before placing some bets.

All odds via BetMGM

Who’s Winning The Genesis Invitational?

Scottie Scheffler (+400) 2 Units

*Obligatory bet on the best player in the world who continues to prove it*

Rory McIlroy (+700) 2 Units

Can the lad go back-to-back? McIlroy won his last time out on Tour at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Now he heads to a Torrey Pines course he routinely shreds. In his last four starts on the South Course, McIlroy has three Top 10 finishes and hasn’t placed lower than 16th. Among all golfers who’ve played at least five rounds at Torrey Pines, McIlroy (+2.52) trails only Tiger Woods (+2.66) in strokes gained on the South Course.

Sam Stevens (+6600 )0.5 Units

A long-shot worth a sprinkle. Stevens (+2.32) is third in strokes gained at Torrey Pines (minimum five rounds) and finished runner-up at the Farmers Insurance here in January.

Who’s Finishing Top 10?

Will Zalatoris (+300) 1 Unit

It’s hard not to like what we’ve seen from Zalatoris this year. We just haven’t seen enough of it. The oft-injured star has three starts this year, including a T12 at The American Express. Zalatoris has three top 13 finishes and two missed cuts on the South Course over the last five years. He’s hard to tail and even harder to fade.

Taylor Pendrith (275) 1 Unit

Pendrith finished seventh at the Farmers Insurance this year and ninth last year. He likes this course. We like it for him.

One-And-Done

Sungjae Im

If you want to burn Rory or Hideki Matsuyama here I won’t blame you, but I’ve landed on Sungjae Im, someone who already has two Top 10 finishes this season (including one at Torrey Pines). Im has finished Top 6 or better three times in the last four years at the South Course with +1.23 strokes gained. He’s also gained +0.619 strokes putting per round over his last five starts (fifth-best in the PGA).

I’m saving my big guns for later in the year and riding a hot(ish) hand for now.

Who’s Missing The Cut?

Patrick Cantlay (+450) 0.25 Units

This course is not the best fit for Cantlay, which isn’t to say he can’t succeed here, just that I’m not banking on it. His putting has been off lately (-0.236 strokes gained per round last five starts) and he’s missed the cut in two of his last three starts at Torrey Pines.

Ludvig Aberg (+450) 0.25 Units

Something has been off with Aberg’s game lately. He fell apart at the Farmers Insurance, going 63-75-74-79, then had to withdraw after an opening-round 77 a week later at Pebble Beach. Now he has to go back to Torrey Pines and I’m not feeling great about it. I’ll roll the dice a bit with this pick.

Matchups!

Justin Thomas over Hideki Matsuyama (2 Units)

Shane Lowry over Jason Day (2 Units)