UFC Vegas 105 predictions
Josh Emmett returns Saturday to a featherweight landscape vastly different from when we last saw him.
It’s been 16 months since Emmett’s vicious knockout of Bryce Mitchell, a finish that kept Emmett’s name firmly in the contenders’ circle. Since then, Ilia Topuria—the man who most recently defeated Emmett—conquered the featherweight division with virtuoso performances against Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway and then announced his intentions to leave the division to chase gold at 155 pounds.
Long story short: At 40, Emmett isn’t as far from a UFC title shot as it seems.
That is, unless you’re confident Lerone Murphy beats him in Saturday’s UFC Vegas 105 main event. Murphy—currently No. 13 at 145 pounds in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, three spots behind No. 10 Emmett—has been the sleeper of the featherweight division, with an undefeated record in eight octagon appearances and an increasing amount of quality wins. He might not have the box office sizzle the higher-ups at TKO are looking for, but another win should give Murphy an airtight case for a future title shot.
The rest of Saturday’s card is the now-expected smorgasbord of veterans and recent Contender Series signings, so let’s see what we can look forward to and potentially learn from this weekend’s competitors.
What: UFC Vegas 105
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, April 5. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 9 p.m. ET also on ESPN and ESPN+.
Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy
Is that victory horns I hear?
That’s right, last week I broke my 2025 streak of incorrect main event predictions with my bold pick of two-time UFC champion Brandon Moreno over Steve Erceg. So proud.
Now it’s time to go streaking and I’m feeling confident leaning towards Lerone Murphy tonight. A few times this year I’ve erred by going with the more experienced fighter (Israel Adesanya, Henry Cejudo, Leon Edwards, Jan Blachowicz) or a fighter to repeat their success in a rematch (Amanda Ribas, Marvin Vettori). Essentially, I’ve failed to recognize a sea change at the appropriate time.
Murphy is heavily favored to beat Josh Emmett and for good reason. He’s strong offensively, good enough defensively (more on this later), and, frankly, a lot less shopworn than Emmett. By virtue of being seven years Emmett’s junior, you can tick off a bunch of boxes in Murphy’s favor.
Emmett is saying all the right things about voluntarily taking a break from action to rejuvenate himself, which makes sense at this stage of his career. But the game isn’t always kind to fighters who take their time and I don’t know if what Emmett gained in rest and recuperation can make up for athletic decay. Even if he still hits like a sledgehammer.
Make no mistake, that’s still a major factor as Murphy’s chin has been cracked on occasion. That’s not something you like to hear when you’re picking someone to beat Emmett. One wrong move and Murphy will be waking up back in Manchester wondering where his weekend disappeared to. But I like him to outwork Emmett on the feet for five rounds and win a decision.
Pick: Murphy
Pat Sabatini vs. Joanderson Brito
Now this matchup has some upset potential.
Sizzling on the feet, not bad on the ground, Joanderson Brito looks to get back in the win column after a frustrating split decision loss to William Gomis. He won’t have to worry about a lack of action here as Pat Sabatini will meet him head on, it just might not be where Brito prefers the fight to take place.
Actually, let’s rephrase that. It might not be where Brito should prefer the fight to take place. Brito has shown in the past he’s unafraid to test his opponent’s grappling chops, which could be his downfall here. Sabatini is more dangerous on the mat and even if Brito can avoid submissions and significant damage, Sabatini will have no issue playing it safe and holding him down.
This is a stylistic chess match, one that could easily end with Brito crowning Sabatini with a crushing combination. I’m going with the grappler, though, so look for Sabatini to ground Brito early and often and take away his options en route to a decision victory.
Pick: Sabatini
Cortavious Romious vs. Chang Ho Lee
Finger of shame to Cortavious Romious for not even coming close to making weight. Come on!
That gaffe is one reason I’m leaning towards Chang Ho Lee. Admittedly, Lee didn’t blow the doors off in his Road to UFC finals win, but he showed a grittiness that will serve him well against the lower tier of the bantamweight division. Winning ugly can be just as much of a skill as winning pretty.
Specifically, Lee’s willingness to scrap in the clinch will serve him well. Romious has potential, but right now he has a straightforward style that revolves around quick striking bursts and takedown attempts with little setup. That should result in plenty of fighting along the cage, where I like Lee to wear Romious down. As the bout progresses and Romious realizes Lee is not wilting, the tide will slowly turn in the South Korean fighter’s favor.
I’m not picking Lee to win any bonuses anytime soon, but I think he outlasts Romious on this night.
Pick: Lee
Brad Tavares vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Brad Tavares doesn’t lose by submission. Gerald Meerschaert never wins by decision and 11 of his UFC wins have come by way of submission. Easy pick for me.
“GM3” forcing a tap from Tavares would truly be one of the most shocking outcomes of the year and it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Tavares has been around forever and if you fight for long enough, eventually you’re going to get caught. There’s no shame if that happens against Meerschaert, who is hunting for submission victory No. 30.
But I can’t see Meerschaert taking Tavares down with much effectiveness, even if the Hawaiian veteran’s wrestling defense has shown noticeable cracks recently. This is a classic middleweighty-y middleweight bout and that means three rounds of methodical, technical, and mostly low impact striking.
And Tavares is the master of those types of fights.
Pick: Tavares
Ode Osbourne vs. Luis Gurule
Ode Osbourne is a classy veteran, well-rounded enough to put anyone in the division on notice, but missing that something special to separate himself from the pack. I mention this because recent Contender Series signing Luis Gurule should win this, even if he’s in for a tough fight.
Gurule has plenty of swagger in his step. He’s light on his feet and he keeps his right hand cocked as he looks to counter when his opponent leaves an opening. He’s not afraid to get in close and get dirty either, so we’ll see how Osbourne reacts when Gurule ramps up the pressure.
There’s also plenty of junk in Gurule’s game, which is to say he will utilize unorthodox movement to break Osbourne’s rhythm. It’s a difficult puzzle to solve and I’m curious how Osbourne will react if he can’t find opportunities to score early.
Gurule projects as a solid addition to the flyweight roster with top 20 potential, but it’s also just as likely he ends up filling the Osbourne role down the road. Either way, I’ll take him by decision in his UFC debut.
Pick: Gurule
Torrez Finney vs. Robert Valentin
This is the right matchup for Torrez Finney after grinding his way through three Contender Series appearances to earn a UFC contract. But dig into the tape and you’ll see he has weaknesses Robert Valentin can exploit.
First off, we have to mention the height difference. At 6-foot-2, Finney has six inches of height on the stout and muscular Torrez, and that’s a discrepancy Torrez has had to deal with throughout his career. Though he’s fared well so far, he’s always at risk to absorb damage as he works to close distance.
When Torrez gets his hands on his opponents, he usually takes them for a ride before giving them hell from top position. Where I worry for “The Punisher” is his submission defense. Valentin knows his way around a hold or two, so he’ll constantly be threatening if Torrez takes too many risks on the ground. And that’s a distinct possibility given Torrez’s eagerness to on put on a show.
Let’s put a pin on the upset talk for now as I still think Finney’s wrestling technique and raw strength are too much for Valentin to overcome, but eventually one of these taller middleweights are going to knock him down a peg.
Pick: Finney
Preliminaries
Dione Barbosa def. Diana Belbita
Rhys McKee def. Daniel Frunza
Loma Lookboonmee def. Istela Nunes
Victor Henry def. Pedro Falcao