The 49ers’ narrow path to Levi’s Stadium for Super Bowl LX

SANTA CLARA — Welcome to the playoff fringe, a place the 49ers haven’t been down the stretch since Deebo Samuel was a wide back, Jimmy Garoppolo was the quarterback and it took an overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams in the final regular-season game to make the tournament in 2021.

That’s what coach Kyle Shanahan calls it. The tournament. And this year’s tournament concludes with Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium on Feb. 7.

About this time last year, the 49ers had fallen to 5-5 with a 20-17 home loss to Seattle and never recovered, losing seven of their last eight games to finish at 6-11. The 49ers were the top seed in 2023, No. 2 in 2022, without much drama when it came to being tournament-eligible.

Now the 49ers are 7-4, better than they have any right to be considering they lost defensive stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner for the season, franchise quarterback Brock Purdy for eight games, tight end George Kittle for five, wide receiver Ricky Pearsall Jr. for six and may not get Brandon Aiyuk back at all. That doesn’t include Mykell Williams, the No. 11 overall pick in the draft, whose rookie season ended in the ninth game with a torn ACL.

They’re 15th in scoring offense (23.7 points per game) and 15th in scoring defense (22.9), pretty much on the playoff bubble and in the middle of the NFL fray any way you count it.

If the 49ers get in with the No. 7 seed, their current position, their only chance for a postseason home game would be the Super Bowl.

The 49ers have just three interceptions and 12 sacks. They’ve struggled to run the ball, although that has gotten better of late with Christian McCaffrey finding some running room to go along with his double duty as their top receiver.

They’ve only outscored opponents by nine points. The NFC West-leading Rams are at plus-100-and second-place Seattle at plus-101. The wild card round shapes up this way heading into Week 12 with the division winners getting the top four seeds.

NFC

No. 1.Philadelphia (8-2) first-round bye

No. 7 49ers (7-4) at No. 2 Los Angeles Rams (8-2)

No. 6 Green Bay (6-3-1) at No. 3 Chicago (7-3)

No. 5 Seattle (7-3) at No. 4 Tampa Bay (6-4)

at .500 or better

No. 8 Detroit (6-4), No. 9 Carolina (6-5)

AFC

Denver (8-2) first round bye

No. 7 Jacksonville (6-4) at No. 2 New England (9-2)

No. 6 L.A. Chargers (6-4) at No. 3 Indianapolis (8-2)

No. 5 Buffalo (7-3) at No. 4  Pittsburgh (6-4)

at .500 or better

No. 8 Houston (5-5), No. 9 Kansas City (5-5), No. 10 Baltimore (5-5)

A fortuitous bye

The 49ers cringed when the schedule came out with the latest possible bye possible in Week 14, at which point they could be as good as 9-4 or as bad as 7-6 depending on how things go Monday night against Carolina at Levi’s Stadium and then on the road against Cleveland (2-8).

Then comes a week off before a four-game finish at home against Tennessee (1-9), at Indianapolis (8-2) and then two games at home against Chicago (7-3) and finally Seattle (7-3), a bookend to the 49ers’ season-opening win against the Seahawks on the road.

By then, the 49ers will have shed their L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W split personality over the last eight games or fall out of the race. They’ll need to function as an elite offense and continue their solid play of late on special teams to compensate for defensive issues.

While the 49ers aren’t getting back Bosa, Warner, Mykel Williams and a full-strength Aiyuk, players who have had extended absences — such as Purdy, Kittle and maybe Pearsall — could be fresh and ready for a stretch run. Place kicker Eddy Piñeiro and middle linebacker Tatum Bethune could return after suffering injuries Sunday in Arizona.

If he’s still going strong, the 49ers ought to designate it “Christian McCaffrey Appreciation Week” for the way he has carried the offense through 11 games.

It’s a week off for the veteran core as well as a rookie class that needs to push through a season that’s gone on longer than any they ever had in college.

Instead of an awful time for a bye, it’s pretty close to perfect.

Week 12 playoff implications

Thursday

Buffalo at Houston: The Bills are in good shape as long as Josh Allen is at quarterback but the Texans can’t afford to drop under .500.

Sunday

Pittsburgh at Chicago: Leaders of the AFC North and NFC North and there’s no evidence either is a sure thing or the postseason. Wrist injury to Aaron Rodgers doesn’t help.

Indianapolis at Kansas City: The Colts at plus-115 have the biggest scoring differential in the NFL. With the Chiefs at .500, would be amazing if they didn’t make the playoffs at all. They’re overdue for that kind of year.

Tampa Bay at L.A. Rams: The Bucs have beaten the 49ers and the Rams have split with them. Baker Mayfield could do the 49ers a solid with a win here.

Monday

Carolina at 49ers: Bryce Young shredded Atlanta for 448 yards in an overtime win and with Jacoby Brissett having just thrown for 457 against the 49ers, expect the Panthers to go uptop early and often.

Week 12 byes: Denver, Miami, L.A. Chargers, Washington