Talking Ourselves into a Cold War with China

Simon Lester

Security, Asia

A world with two separate economic spheres, one for the United States and one for China, could be disastrous.

Sometimes the latest turns of phrase in policy circles are just fleeting headlines, soon to be forgotten. As a presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton called for “smart and fair trade.” But she disappeared from the political scene before we figured out what that meant.

However, other times they lead us down the road towards real changes in policy. Soon after the 9/11 attacks, Bush administration officials were accusing Saddam Hussein of being involved. At the time, the invasion of Iraq was hardly inevitable, and may not have seemed likely, but armed with the phrase “weapons of mass destruction,” the administration got the war momentum going, and that is the direction in which the country went.

The U.S.-China relationship is facing similar attempts to define it with very serious sounding terminology, as U.S. policymakers are in the grips of the latest bout of buzzwords and groupthink. The U.S.-China relationship, we are told, may undergo a “conscious uncoupling.” The two countries could be moving towards an “economic cold war.” Actual war is unlikely (although you never know), but nevertheless a seismic geopolitical shift is supposedly upon us.

But what does all this really mean? Are these just transitory phrases that will be superseded quickly by the next big policy thing? Or is this view of the U.S.-China relationship becoming entrenched across the Washington establishment, with the course of history already set?

Let’s hope it is the former. Because if the rhetoric becomes reality, then today’s trade skirmishes will seem inconsequential compared to the economic disruption that would result.