Is Taiwan's Military Really Ready to Take on China?

James Holmes

Security, Asia

We asked one of the world's leading experts that very question.

Chinese president Xi Jinping issued his latest threat to Taiwan during what the BBC artfully calls “a speech marking 40 years since the start of improving ties” between the communist-ruled mainland and the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan. Xi exhorted Taiwanese to accept that they “must and will be” unified with the mainland. Sheesh. If forty years of improving ties culminate in threats to wipe out your negotiating partner’s political existence, I’d shudder to think how forty years of deteriorating ties across the Taiwan Strait would have turned out.

But Xi’s remarks do warrant taking stock of Taiwan’s defense afresh. To measure the adequacy of Taiwan’s defense, first, survey its overall strategic posture and then the state of its land, air and sea power. If the ROC armed forces are sufficient to discharge the tasks entrusted to them by the political leadership in Taipei, then the island is in sound shape to uphold its independence. If Taipei has assigned the military more to do than it can reasonably do, then trouble looms: missions must be cut or capabilities expanded until ends and means are in sync.

First, strategy. Few—and by “few” I mean “no”—nations boast the diplomatic, economic and military resources and political artistry to get everything they want. That being the case, they survey the surroundings and devise a strategy for a world of many goals and scarce resources. At its most fundamental, strategy is the art and science of setting and enforcing priorities among things or purposes the nation values, and apportioning resources to attain the priorities it cherishes most. You can’t have it all.

The Republic of China—an island state under the shadow of a continental giant bent on absorbing it by means peaceful or violent—must be more ruthless with itself than most when setting and enforcing priorities.