China's Top 5 War Plans

Ian Easton

Security, Asia

Beijing confronts its worst military nightmares in its internal planning.

On December 31, 2015, the People's Republic of China (PRC, or China) began a sweeping military reorganization and reform program. The stated objective of this program was to produce a "joint force" capable of fighting and winning China's future wars. This development raised a number of intriguing questions. What compelled the occupants of the Zhongnanhai leadership compound in Beijing to gamble on a sudden, and potentially destabilizing, shake-up of the armed wing of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)? What wars do Xi Jinping and the CCP elite envision fighting? Assuming reforms are successful, how might Chinese military power be used in future joint operations?

To understand what may be driving China's military reorganization and reform campaign, we must first understand the nature of the PRC's war plans. Planners in Beijing appear to make decisions regarding China's overall military buildup and armaments program based on a limited number of future conflict scenarios. According to the writings of People's Liberation Army (PLA) strategists and military theorists, Beijing's foremost objective is preparing to conquer the Republic of China (ROC, or Taiwan), while deterring, delaying, or destroying U.S. military actions to assist in the defense of the island. This is something authoritative Chinese military writings refer to as China's "Main Strategic Direction (主要战略方向)."[i] PLA writings available to us indicate that military conflicts around China's land borders represent secondary, but still important, planning scenarios. In particular, Chinese military writings describe the India border as a flashpoint and paint India as a dangerous future enemy.[ii]

PLA sources indicate that Chinese military strategists focus on five major conflict scenarios. Potential war plans constructed around these scenarios would require varying degrees of joint-capable military forces. Generally referred to in the Chinese literature as joint campaigns (联合战役) or joint operations (联合作战), it seems likely that these imagined future wars drive China's military buildup to a significant degree.[iii] According to sources in hand, the PLA's main joint operations are as follows:

(1) Joint Firepower Strike Operations against Taiwan (大型岛屿联合火力突击作战 ).[iv]

(2) Joint Blockade Operations against Taiwan (大型岛屿联合封锁作战).

(3) Joint Attack Operations against Taiwan (大型岛屿联合进攻作战).[v]