How to Start a Second Cuban Missile Crisis (In Asia): America Puts Cruise Missiles in Taiwan

Robert Farley

Security, Asia

In a few years, the U.S. may have new ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs) with the capacity to strike at intermediate ranges. And if relations between China and the United States continue to deteriorate, Washington may go looking for places to station those missiles. GLCMs in Taiwan are simultaneously China’s greatest fear, and the last card that the United States can play before war begins. They would also spark the most dangerous nuclear standoff since 1962.

In 1962, the United States and the Soviet Union nearly turned the Cold War hot because of the Soviet decision to deploy nuclear-armed ballistic missiles to Cuba. A few years before that, China and the United States came perilously close to war over a few Taiwanese-controlled islands off the coast of the mainland.

In the next decade, as tensions grow between Beijing and Washington, and as the United States sloughs off the restrictions of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, we could see a replay of both crises. In a few years, the United States may have new ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs) with the capacity to strike at intermediate ranges. And if relations between China and the United States continue to deteriorate, Washington may go looking for places to station those missiles. GLCMs in Taiwan are simultaneously China’s greatest fear, and the last card that the United States can play before war begins. They would also spark the most dangerous nuclear standoff since 1962.

What Has Gone Before:

The United States has threatened China with cruise missiles before. In 1958, the United States sent several batteries of MGM-1 “Matador” cruise missiles to Taiwan. The missiles, equipped with a 40 kt nuclear weapon, could hit targets at a range of up to 1000 km, putting a significant portion of the mainland at risk. The United States withdrew these missiles because of obsolescence in 1962, and withdrew its entire military presence in 1979 upon the normalization of diplomatic relations with the PRC.

These missiles posed a clear threat to the survival of the PRC, as they could strike crucial regime military and urban targets with minimal warning, and with no meaningful possibility of defense. The missiles also represented a clear commitment on the part of the United States to the survival of the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan, and potentially to its re-establishment on the mainland. The withdrawal, first of the missiles and then of the rest of the U.S. military presence, reflected the acquiescence of the United States in the existence of the PRC, and just as importantly in the strategic role the PRC could play in the Cold War.

Operational Logic: