As Washington Exits, Russia's Syria Strategy Comes Under Scrutiny

Dmitriy Frolovskiy

Security, Eurasia

Russia is using Syria as a base for altering its long-term strategy for the region.

Washington’s December announcement of a Syria pullout came as a surprise to many in Moscow. A sense of confusion lasted for few weeks and only then had been replaced with a perception of the new reality on the ground. Although the Kremlin’s Middle East strategy had been undergoing a shift before the decision was known, the new paradigm might come as a litmus test for its strategy, hence deserving greater international scrutiny.

Given that President Vladimir Putin has declared victory and withdrawal from Syria on a few occasions, but never really kept his word, Russian officials struggle to grasp that Washington’s snap decision could actually take place. Even if true, many in Moscow believe that Washington would still operate via CIA operatives or military advisers to keep Iran and ISIS in check, as well as using its facilities in Jordan and Iraq. In effect, for the Kremlin it is vital to see how the implementation would occur before it decides to adapt its own multilayered strategy.

Despite Washington claiming to play a lesser role, the Kremlin’s diplomatic actions should not change much. Moscow is determined to further pursue and capitalize on its own initiatives that were already at work in 2018 and adjust in accordance with the geopolitical settings.

Moving forward, the Astana framework will likely gain an even greater importance. Although questioned from the beginning, the format miraculously withstood most of the challenges and has been designated to further serve as a platform where Russia, Iran and Turkey could openly address their disagreements. It might, however, face an endurance test from multiple economic and geopolitical hurdles, as the trio starts to rival each other more.