RIP INF: China, Russia, and America May Enter into a Deadly Arms Race

Stratfor Worldview

Security,

What happens now?

Highlights

– The end of the INF treaty would again place Europe between Russian and U.S. intermediate-range nuclear missiles.

– Withdrawing from the INF allows the U.S. military to build up a formidable arsenal of missiles to challenge China and Russia.

– The termination of the treaty will galvanize an arms race between the great powers and could threaten the future of the New START arms control agreement.

President Donald Trump announced on October 20 that he intends to withdraw the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. That agreement prohibits the deployment of nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with intermediate ranges, defined as 500-5,500 kilometers (310-3,410 miles). While the withdrawal will allow the U.S. military to build a formidable arsenal of missiles to challenge China and Russia, the treaty's termination will undoubtedly stoke a budding arms race between global great powers, and it could lead to the demise of other key arms control treaties such as the New START agreement.

In recent years, the United States has accused Russia of violating the INF treatyand has tried to force Moscow to comply using sanctions and weapons development. The Russians, however, have refused to adhere to U.S. demands and have accused the United States of violating the treaty. These mutual recriminations have rendered the INF treaty quite vulnerable over the past two decades. But until now, both parties considered the cornerstone arms control agreement, which halted a destabilizing buildup of intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe during the 1980s, too pivotal to withdraw from.