What Kim Jong Un Really Wants, and How America Should Respond

Alexander Vuving

Security, Asia

"Kim’s young age nearly forces him to make quick and ambitious achievements, but it also encourages him to think long-term about boosting the economy and improving his country’s place in the world, which will entail economic reform and geopolitical repositioning among the great powers and regional states."

Building the “ultimate weapon” and behaving recklessly, North Korea has for decades been causing big headaches for the outside world. Due to its unique political system, dealing with North Korea hinges heavily on understanding what its supreme leader wants. At first sight, Kim Jong-un appears to be one of the most enigmatic leaders in the world today, but a deeper look at his action reveals a rational and coherent strategy. Kim is changing his country, and the best policy for America is to seize this opportunity with continuous and protected engagement.

In the first six years of his rule, between 2012 and 2017, Kim pursued a massive program to develop nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles. The tests conducted under his rule were far more frequent and more aggressive than those under his father and grandfather, the previous leaders of North Korea. In March 2018, taking the world by surprise, Kim abruptly changed course and launched a charm offensive aimed at meeting with the U.S. president.

The near consensus we’ve had for decades about the motive behind North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs is that its leaders fear U.S. invasion and they can feel secure only when they possess the capabilities to deter it. This makes sense, but it does not explain the scale and frequency with which Kim pursued his weapons programs. In fact, Kim did not need more nuclear weapons and longer range of missiles than his father to deter a major U.S. military attack.

Tens of thousands of U.S. personnel and about thirty million South Koreans, which is 60 percent of the South’s total population, are living within the North’s artillery range. The U.S. Department of Defense estimated in 2006 that North Korean artillery barrages could inflict 250,000 casualties in the Seoul metropolitan area alone. Tabletop exercises conducted by the U.S. military in February 2018 predicted that roughly ten thousand U.S. troops could be wounded in the opening days of a war with North Korea before it might turn nuclear.