The Hanoi Summit – We Asked Malcolm Davis What Happens Next in U.S.-North Korea Relations

Malcolm Davis

Security, Asia

"If diplomacy goes forward – and that’s a big ‘if’ – it has to be at a lower level and focus on smaller steps than an all-or-nothing grand deal."

At the most fundamental level, the Hanoi Summit between President Trump and Kim Jong-un failed because North Korea is not going to denuclearize. For the Trump Administration, denuclearisation is not optional, and sanctions cannot be lifted for anything less.

Now new concerns have emerged about North Korea restoring its Sohae launch facility—supposedly dismantled as a goodwill gesture towards diplomacy. These disturbing developments reinforce the reality that all the steps taken so far by North Korea towards denuclearisation are cosmetic and easily reversible rather than substantive.

There is little point to North Korea’s actions at Sohae unless Pyongyang is planning to launch something—either a space launch vehicle (which can also test intercontinental ballistic missile technology) or a dedicated ballistic missile test. That’s a worrying sign.

North Korea wants all sanctions lifted, and a peace treaty. The United States shouldn’t give them something for nothing. Pyongyang’s definition of “denuclearisation” is focused on removing U.S. nuclear capability around the Korean Peninsula first—and there’s no guarantee that Pyongyang would then denuclearize.

If diplomacy goes forward—and that’s a big “if”—it has to be at a lower level and focus on smaller steps than an all-or-nothing grand deal.