The Hanoi Summit – We Asked Erica Fein What Happens Next in U.S.-North Korea Relations

Erica Fein

Security, Asia

"The key factor is who Trump listens to more: Bolton or Moon."

Following the failed Hanoi Summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un, there is reason to be nervous about prospects for continued diplomacy. Much will be determined by how much Trump empowers his cunning and hawkish national security advisor, John Bolton. Bolton has already notched two major diplomatic kills on his belt since joining Trump’s administration: the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Over Bolton’s career, he has had many more, including ending the Anti-Ballistic Missile Defense Treaty, pushing for the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and—most importantly here—the demise of the 1994 Agreed Framework between the United States and North Korea. We should not be surprised if Bolton is gunning for this current round of U.S.-DPRK diplomacy as well.

Indeed, during the Hanoi Summit and in the days since, there have been signs that Bolton has the President’s ear and has boxed out engagement proponent U.S. special envoy Steve Biegun. It appears now that that the United States is taking Bolton’s preferred maximalist approach to North Korean denuclearization; that is, the unilateral dismantlement of North Korea’s entire arsenal of weapons of mass destruction program—nuclear, chemical, and biological—in exchange for subsequent sanctions relief. Should North Korea believe that it cannot trust the United States to negotiate in good faith, it may quickly turn away from further talks and from the commitments it has already made regarding its nuclear program.