The Hanoi Summit – We Asked Mary Chesnut What Happens Next in U.S.-North Korea Relations

Mary Chesnut

Security, Asia

"My bottom line: there is no shame in exhausting all diplomatic possibilities."

The failure of President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to reach a deal in Hanoi was the result of mutual miscalculation; each side expected that they could spend less and get more than what their counterpart was ultimately willing to put on the table. From North Korea’s perspective, offering to shut down the Yongbyon facility was a fair concession. For the United States, the costs were simply too high to gamble full UN sanctions relief on an untrustworthy regime (especially in light of the administration’s withdrawal from the Iran Deal). Granted, there are conflicting reports about what level of sanction relief North Korea demanded, but this rollercoaster of hype, miscalculation, and walking away showcases the drawbacks of a leader-to-leader, top-down negotiating approach.

But while Hanoi may have been much ado about nothing, most see it preferable to renewed threats of Fire and Fury.

In the short term, it is hard to say what will ensue. Perhaps relations fall back into a cool homeostasis: Kim keeps pursuing improved relations with South Korea while continuing to quietly enrich additional weapons-grade material. Trump will likely be appeased as long as North Korea continues its moratorium on missile and nuclear testing until after the 2020 election.

Alternatively, Kim and Trump may try for a third round of talks. The two seem to have a genuine rapport and appear reluctant to call it quits. Moreover, North Korea has made clear that the removal of crippling sanctions is a top priority—even over security guarantees. If another summit is announced, it would be wise to have more preparation and preliminary negotiations in the days or weeks preceding the formal meeting. Substantive negotiations regarding specific facilities and sanctions need not be debated just hours before the pre-scheduled “signing ceremony.”