The Hanoi Summit – We Asked Abraham Denmark What Happens Next in U.S.-North Korea Relations

Abraham M. Denmark

Security, Asia

"In all likelihood, U.S.-North Korea relations are about to enter a period of relative stasis."

Editor’s Note: Looking for more opinions on where we go after the Hanoi summit? Check out all 79 expert takes on where U.S-North Korea relations go next here.

A week after the second Donald Trump-Kim Jong-un Summit, a senior U.S. State Department officialreportedly stated that “the ball was in North Korea’s court,” and that “it is going to be up to the North Koreans, to some extent, to decide to engage on meeting some of the expectations that are out there on denuclearization.” Historically, this usually means that negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have stalled, and there are few expectations for any near-term progress.

In all likelihood, U.S.-North Korea relations are about to enter a period of relative stasis. But this stasis is based on the assumption that both leaders believe that time is on their side. There is a good reason to believe this: absent an agreement, Kim remains free to continue building nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles while finding more ways to circumvent international sanctions. President Trump is also not likely to push on this issue, as he has already declared success with North Korea and is expected to focus on trade negotiations with China and domestic issues in the lead-up to the 2020 presidential campaign.