How to Avoid Another Korean War

John Dale Grover, Brad Howard

Security, Asia

Deterrence could break down due to accidents, miscalculation, miscommunication, or overreaction. Washington must prevent that from happening.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un recently traveled on April 25 to meet with Russian president Vladimir Putin. According to their statements, Kim has not changed his position of keeping his nuclear arsenal unless he gets certain unclear “security guarantees” from the United States. Kim also wants sanctions relief as part of any denuclearization deal between Kim and President Donald Trump.

Pyongyang’s primary concern is survival. North Korea is surrounded by more powerful countries, many of which have nuclear weapons. Also, South Korea is allied with the nuclear United States. Kim wants to protect himself against regime change and increased sanctions. Although the big question is how Washington can convince Pyongyang to give up nuclear weapons under such circumstances, another vital question is what happens if Kim refuses and relations become hostile and tense again? If America cannot get rid of North Korea’s nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future, how can Washington at least be sure they will never be used.

North Korea’s Nuclear Program

North Korea has long maintained an interest in the ultimate deterrent of nuclear weapons. In 1992, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced Pyongyang had been deceptive about its nuclear program, which was possibly being weaponized. This led to a series of negotiations led by the United States and other regional powers to halt and undo North Korea’s nuclear program.