The S-400 Issue in U.S.-Turkey Relations is Leading to Disaster, But It Can be Stopped

Vahidullah Taç

Security, Middle East

The most straightforward way of resolving the dispute is to prevent Turkey’s procurement of the S-400 system altogether. But this can only be achieved through understanding and compromise, not threats.

The United States of America and Turkey, the largest and the second largest militaries in NATO, are experiencing one of the lowest points in bilateral relations in history. The only other time that it was this low was during the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, which is when the United States applied a total embargo on arms sales and support to the Turks in 1974. The difference between then and now is that back then there was only one point of contention and it was clearly understood by both sides; the military invasion of Cyprus. That is good because such a problem, no matter how big, is eventually solvable. As long as the strategic interests of two nations are aligned and the problems clearly understood, there will always be hope and effort on both sides to resolve bilateral issues and reconciliate.

The issue today is much deeper, grave and multifaceted. The two countries see less and less reasons to stay together and their independent foreign-policy choices are increasingly leaving them at the opposite sides of conflicts around the world as well as in Turkey itself. The points of divergence include difference of opinion on the religious group led by Fethullah Gulen blamed by Turkey for the coup attempt against its government in 2016, definition of terrorism and designation of YPG as a terrorist organization, the wars in Syria and Iraq, and most recently, Turkey’s decision to purchase a Russian long-range air- and missile-defense system known as the S-400 Triumph. Lawmakers in Capitol Hill have repeatedly warned Turkish officials both publicly and in private that the procurement of the S-400 will have a lasting and serious adverse impact on bilateral relations. The procurement is bound to trigger the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) of 2017, at which time a number of Turkish governmental institutions and defense companies will be barred from working with their American counterparts. But more specifically, Washington has made it clear that the procurement will endanger Turkey’s position in the F-35 program. As each day passes by, it becomes clearer that neither side is stepping down from their positions.