Striking a Deal with Russia on Spheres of Influence

Ted Galen Carpenter

Security, Eurasia

All great powers seek to enforce their writ in their immediate neighborhood, and the avoidance of needless conflict requires a decent respect for that reality.

Trump administration officials and their hawkish domestic allies sound increasingly strident alarm bells about foreign meddling in Venezuela’s internal political turmoil. They contend that Russia, China, Cuba, and Hezbollah are especially active in supporting leftist president Nicolas Maduro’s beleaguered government. Indeed, some U.S. analysts insist that without outside backing, especially by Russia and Cuba, pro-democracy opposition forces likely would have forced him to relinquish power already. When anti-government demonstrations erupted in Caracas on April 30, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that Maduro had been ready to board a plane to fly to exile in Havana but changed his mind at Russia’s urging.

U.S. leaders appear to exaggerate the extent of Moscow’s meddling. Given Maduro’s uncompromising behavior throughout the most recent demonstrations, the notion that he was ready to flee the country absent Russian intervention seems far-fetched. The loyalty of Venezuela’s military has not yet wavered, and he continues to draw support from left-wing citizens’ militias. Those factors have been more relevant to his continued grip on power than Russian (or any other foreign) support.