Russia Won't Start a (Conventional) War in the Baltics

Maxwell Stangl

Security, Europe

Western military planners need to reorganize and align units in such a way that they can handle Russian hybrid warfare, while preparing for a conventional attack as a secondary measure.

The sound of BM-21 rockets streaking across the sky. The smell of spent brass and burned powder. The rumble of BTR-82 armored personnel carriers rolling through a narrow street. Rebels sprinting from building to building through an open field of fire. These sights do not evoke a striking imagine of a modern European country, but Russian posturing in the region might lead to this.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, international spectators believed this Eurasian military powerhouse would cease. However, the Russian Federation has returned to its old Cold War ways, increasing aggressive activities against its neighbors in an attempt to stymie North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion. As seen with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 or the liberation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the 2008 Georgian War, Russia has used its military to destabilize bordering nations.

Many leaders are worried that similar actions could be taken against the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Unlike Ukraine, these three countries are a part of NATO, presenting a prime target for Russian president Vladimir Putin. However, future aggression will likely come in the form of the hybrid warfare attacks as seen in Ukraine and Georgia rather than an all-out invasion like many think. As Catherine Harris and Frederick Kagan from the Institute for the Study of War have hinted at, “The Russian military is well-positioned to launch a conventional war in Ukraine and a hybrid war in the Baltic States, the opposite of what Western leaders seem to be expecting in each theater.”