Beware The Decline of U.S. Influence in South Asia

Minaam Shah

Security, Eurasia

The recent crisis depicts that the United States has lost considerable ground as an overarching influence in South Asia.

South Asia, for the most part of Donald Trump's presidency, had been quiet up until earlier this year when the region's two main protagonists, India and Pakistan, nearly entered a nuclear face-off. A suicide attack on a paramilitary convoy in Indian controlled Kashmir triggered an aerial dogfight culminating in the capture of an Indian pilot who was later released by Pakistan. The episode marked a major shift in how India responds to terrorist attacks sponsored from across the border: It was the first instance since the Indo-Pak war in 1971 that Indian warplanes had crossed the border and bombed the Pakistani mainland. Naturally, it was expected that the United States, the region's traditional arbitrator, would help diffuse tensions. But for the first time since the early '90s, the United States did not play a significant role in stemming the crisis.

Previously, in 1990 when the insurgency in Kashmir had just begun and a crisis emanated, President George H.W. Bush sent his CIA director to South Asia to calm heads in the region. Later President Bill Clinton was the single greatest influence in bringing an end to the Kargil War of 1999, a year after both India and Pakistan had tested nuclear weapons. Similarly, during the 2001–2002 India-Pakistan standoff, when both countries mobilized troops after an attack on the Indian Parliament, the George W. Bush administration mediated to end the ten-month-long impasse.

America’s role as a buffer seemed to take permanence when then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice rushed to the region to prevent possible military fallout following the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks. Besides the role of firefighting, the United States has from time to time used its good offices to encourage peace talks between the South Asian rivals. However, this part of the role is often glossed over because neither India nor Pakistan wants to acknowledge outside influence on their foreign policy, particularly with regard to each other. In all, the United States has been central to Indo-Pak dynamics both in peace and war.