Not RIP: How ISIS Is Going Virtual

Bülent Aras

Security, Middle East

Baghdadi has plans to ensure relevancy and reform in the face of territorial loss.

Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, the self-declared caliph of the Islamic State (ISIS) appeared recently in a short video to demonstrate he is alive, well and on duty. Gone are the days of his declaration of so-called Caliphate and control of territories in Iraq and Syria the size of Britain with a population of almost ten million. His modest attitude in the video was an attempt to revitalize his shattering organization with a message of thankfulness to those who lost their lives in defense of ISIS, his appreciation of the loyalties of Wilayahs (Provinces) and allegiance to their global cause. It is noteworthy that Baghdadi’s appeared right after the U.S.-supported Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces captured the last territory of the ISIS in the Syrian town of Baghouz.

Baghdadi now has two options.

One is to take advantage of the chaotic situation in Syria and Iraq to lead the insurgency. The Western interest in fighting, which was mobilized against the territorial caliphate, has waned and the U.S. forces are packing to come back home. In addition to a pool of thousands of supporters, entrenched Sunni frustration in Iraq promises ongoing recruitment opportunities for ISIS. Moreover, Sunni frustration is mainly provoked by the Iranian-led groups’ sectarianism and the lack of effective governmental authority in Baghdad and Damascus.

However, Baghdadi’s second option is to sideline the idea of a territorial state but to re-organize the Islamic State into the structure of a virtual state with global franchises from Africa to Asia. There is also a high degree of possibility that ISIS can try both but would concentrate on the second option given its lessening competence for territorial control.