Trump's 'Maximum Pressure' Plan for Iran Will Yield Few Results

Udi Evental

Security, Middle East

Washington's strategy towards Tehran seems to backlash and is not expected to lead to amendment of the nuclear deal nor to a substantive change in Iran’s regional policy.

Iran’s announcement that it would cease to implement some of its commitments under the nuclear agreement, its involvement in attacks against oil vessels and infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, and its purported plans to target American interests, are all a direct result of the flaws of President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy. Instead of stopping enrichment, Iran might end up enhancing it. Instead of ceasing to support terrorism, Iran might be willing to take greater risks and end up initiating attacks against American forces in the region.

Recent additional Trump administration measures—and especially the administration’s decision to revoke sanctions exemptions for all countries purchasing Iranian oil—have undoubtedly ratcheted up the pressure on Tehran pushing it to react. Still, these measures are unlikely to lead to the amendment of the nuclear deal or contribute to a substantive change in Iran’s malign regional policy.

Why? Because the significant leverage that the administration has succeeded in creating over Iran via sanctions is not tied to coherent and realistic objectives. President Donald Trump’s Iranian strategy is clearly rife with contradictions and inner tensions, which are likely to backlash and lead to an impasse—even though “maximum pressure” is increasing by the week.