How Turkey Can Help Bring Stability to Syria

Michael Arnold

Security, Middle East

If U.S. policymakers are hoping Turkey will become a vassal for U.S. interests in the region, then they will continue to wait in vain.

In September of last year, Turkey and Russia reached a tentative agreement to avoid a Russian-backed, regime-led offensive in Idlib, Syria’s last major bastion of rebellion. Since late April, that agreement has been threatened by renewed aggression from the Syrian regime backed by Russian air power. As of yet, all public indications by the interested parties indicate that the offensive is designed to achieve limited objectives. Although it remains to be seen if the agreement and limited objectives will hold, a complete ceasefire reportedly brokered by Russia and Turkey seems to confirm this assumption.

There are various reasons for why the offensive was briefly renewed when it was. From the Syrian regime’s perspective, it seems as though the strikes were a part of a push to take full control of the strategic M4 and M5 highways, which could allow for the resumption of the transit of goods from the Turkish to the Jordanian border.

Regarding Russia, while all indications point to Moscow’s desire for a limited engagement, it is likely that Russia is seeking to achieve more than merely degrading the capability of groups such as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). In addition to pressuring Turkey to fulfill its side of the Sochi agreement that established the current framework of understanding on Idlib, Russia may be trying to assert its position against possible moves by the United States or even Turkey.

Turkish Response

Turkey’s response has so far been muted. Despite Syrian regime forces repeatedly targeting Turkish military observation posts, Turkey has yet to respond and has so far kept their allied militias from launching a counteroffensive against regime forces in the region.